3 Division Winner, Win Total Bets to Target for 2023 NFL Season

With the NFL season almost a third of the way through, betting markets have shifted dramatically from pre-season odds. Below, we'll scan across the NFL betting landscape, honing in on division winners and win total markets where bettors can make worthwhile wagers.

NFL Division Winner Bets to Consider

Jacksonville Jaguars to Win AFC South

-110, DraftKings, Caesars

The Jacksonville Jaguars opened the season with -155 odds to win their division. While their first five games have been bumpy, Trevor Lawrence has taken another step in his ascension to elite quarterback status. He's done this despite his advanced metrics lagging due to league-worst drop numbers. The offense should continue to find its stride as its drop and penalty numbers regress toward the league average.

In the rest of their division, the Indianapolis Colts’ loss of Anthony Richardson lowers their chances to hit a ceiling outcome and contend for the division. While starting Gardner Minshew does not prevent the Colts from contending in the next month, Richardson missing time will impede his development.

Without fail, the Tennessee Titans continue playing competitive football despite deficiencies across their roster. The Titans’ lackluster offensive line and limited passing game make it challenging to buy into them as a double-digit win team. Additionally, their below-average defense, 23rd in Estimated Points Added (EPA) and 20th in success rate allowed, is unlikely to elevate their team.

The Houston Texans, perhaps the most delightful surprise of 2023, remain a threat to win the AFC South. Competent quarterback play from C.J. Stroud, development from Nico Collins and a soon-to-be-healthy offensive line will have the Texans playing as a roughly .500 team for the rest of the year. The Texans are similarly league-average on defense, ranking 15th in EPA and 18th in defensive success rate.

The Jaguars can win all their remaining games, though difficult matchups with the San Francisco 49ers and the entire AFC North remain. They are more likely than not to win at least 10 games and almost 60 percent likely to win the division.

NFL Win Total Bets to Consider

New York Jets OVER 5.5 Wins

-135. DraftKings

The New York Jets opened the year with a win total of 9.5. Steadily, their total has crept down by a win almost every week. It now sits at 5.5. While this trend is justified (a team quarterbacked by Zach Wilson is far inferior to the same team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm), it has gone too far. The Jets need four more wins to surpass their win total and are significantly more likely to achieve this feat than not.

The trade deadline, specifically looking at the veteran trade market, can only help the Jets. If the Jets lose their next two games, including against the New York Giants, they could pursue another option at quarterback. While Kirk Cousins remains an unlikely best-case scenario, Justin Jefferson's injury makes the Minnesota Vikings more likely to trade away their veterans.

If the Jets roll with Wilson, there are reasons to be encouraged. While his season-long performance ranks 28th in a composite ranking of EPA and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), his performance in the past three weeks ranks 22nd. If the Jets consistently get quarterback play commensurate with the league’s 24th-best passer, they would have a win total of 6.5 instead of 5.5.

Lastly, the Jets’ win total sits at a favorable number on DraftKings relative to other sites. On Fanduel and Caesars, the Jets sit at -162 and -170 to record more than 5.5 wins, making DraftKings’ price of -135 significantly off-market. A fair price would be -160.

Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 7.5 Wins

-130, DraftKings

Before Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders had a win total of 6.5. Despite the Raiders’ two wins early this season, they have performed mainly to their expectations rather than exceeding them. Their passing game has been a pleasant surprise, with Jimmy Garoppolo leading a league-average attack through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.

While the Raiders passing offense has elevated their team, their rushing game and defense have stagnated. The Raiders rank 31st in rushing EPA and 23rd in rushing success rate. On defense, the Raiders rank 27th in EPA allowed and 25th in defensive success rate. Their offensive performance through the air is more likely to stall — or even decrease — than improve in all other elements.

The Raiders also have the 26th-best point differential. In short, they are closer to the league’s basement than they are to average.

The Raiders have the league’s worst in-game management decision-maker in Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has cost his team significant win probability in two of the last three weeks with poor decisions. With a coach who does not play to win games, the Raiders remain an easier team to bet against. A win total of 7.5, with slight juice to the under, remains incredibly appealing.

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