Analysis
7/18/23
4 min read
2023 Running Back Season-Long Betting Lines to Target
We want to find every edge we can in fantasy football and betting. That’s why we constantly look for ways to blend them together. In season-long prop markets, you’ll find significant discrepancies between the lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and Underdog Fantasy’s best ball average draft position (ADP).
Underdog’s flagship tournament, Best Ball Mania, is the world’s most popular fantasy football tournament, with more than 230,000 entries through mid-July 2023. The “wisdom of the crowd” can be applied here, as ADP has been set by thousands of the most hardcore fantasy players out there.
Each drafted team provides insights into how players’ 2023 production is valued by many of the sharpest minds out there. We can use that to make more informed season-long bets, as explored throughout this article.
>>READ: WR Betting Lines to Target
Rachaad White OVER 650.5 Rushing Yards
- This line opened at 800.5 on Underdog but has since dropped due to uncertainty surrounding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense. However, we have good reason to believe Rachaad White will see more opportunities this year.
- Last year, Tom Brady had 733 pass attempts, more than any other quarterback in NFL history.
- Tampa Bay also had the league’s fewest rushing attempts (386).
- The Buccaneers are expected to rush more with Baker Mayfield, whose offenses average 26 rushes per game (league average last season was 22).
- Still, the total Buccaneers RB production almost doubles this number with 1,230 rushing yards.
- Leonard Fournette was on pace for more than 700 yards despite being out-snapped by White after Week 8.
- White figures to be the starting running back in this offense.
- As a vote of confidence in the third-rounder, the Buccaneers didn’t draft a running back or sign a high-profile one in free agency.
- The only other rostered running backs are Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Patrick Laird.
- As a vote of confidence in the third-rounder, the Buccaneers didn’t draft a running back or sign a high-profile one in free agency.
- Given White’s ADP, we’d expect roughly 784 rushing yards.
- Isiah Pacheco has a similar ADP and a rushing yard line of 775. Once White became the starter from Weeks 10-17, he out-snapped Pacheco (39 vs. 29), and both running backs were on pace for more than 850 rushing yards.
- White had three times as many receptions during this time frame and averaged just .5 fewer fantasy points per game than Pacheco, despite having zero touchdowns to Pacheco’s three.
- Other running backs in this ADP range include David Montgomery (750.5 yards), AJ Dillon (725.5) and James Conner (650.5)
- Isiah Pacheco has a similar ADP and a rushing yard line of 775. Once White became the starter from Weeks 10-17, he out-snapped Pacheco (39 vs. 29), and both running backs were on pace for more than 850 rushing yards.
Dameon Pierce UNDER 900.5 Rushing Yards
- Dameon Pierce had 52 rushing yards per game after Week 10.
- This ranked 30th, but his 3.6 yards per carry (YPC) ranked third-worst among running backs with 50-plus rushes.
- These numbers put Pierce on pace for 884 yards in a full 17-game season
- Pierce is likely to lose work to Devin Singletary, who had 11 rushes and 51 rushing yards per game.
- Singletary’s 4.8 YPC after Week 10 ranked eighth-best.
- Pierce saw 56 percent of the Houston Texans’ carries last year and should be the 1a to Singletary’s 1b.
- Singletary had 43 percent of the Bills’ carries last season.
- At his ADP, we’d expect Pierce to gain 806 total yards.
- For context, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards line is also 900.5 yards. McCaffrey provides far more receiving upside (hence his ADP) but should see more carries and more efficiency than Pierce.
- McCaffrey saw the same number of carries per game as Pierce after Week 10, but he totaled 16 more rushing yards per game and one more YPC.
- Cam Akers, who is being drafted five spots earlier, has a line of 750.5 rushing yards.
- Pierce and Akers profile as similar receiving backs (~12 receiving yards per game after Week 10).
- Alexander Mattison has a similar ADP and the same 900-yard line despite a clear RB1 role and third-round draft capital.
- For context, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards line is also 900.5 yards. McCaffrey provides far more receiving upside (hence his ADP) but should see more carries and more efficiency than Pierce.
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