Analysis

10/4/23

12 min read

2023 NFL Week 5 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

The season's first month is in the rearview, meaning player values have fluctuated plenty. Fortunately, our dynasty rankings ensure you can create the best possible advantage in the current market.

Week 5 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

1 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
2 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
3 Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

4 Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
5 Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers
6 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

7 Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins
8 C.J. Stroud Houston Texans
9 Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts
10 Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars
11 Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals

Tier Four

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

12 Deshaun Watson Cleveland Browns

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

13 Bryce Young Carolina Panthers
14 Justin Fields Chicago Bears

Tier Six

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

15 Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys
16 Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings
17 Russell Wilson Denver Broncos

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

18 Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers
19 Jared Goff Detroit Lions
20 Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks
21 Jordan Love Green Bay Packers

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

22 Daniel Jones New York Giants

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

23 Sam Howell Washington Commanders
24 Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers
25 Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh Steelers
26 Mac Jones New England Patriots

Tier 10

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

27 Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams
28 Derek Carr New Orleans Saints
29 Jimmy Garoppolo Las Vegas Raiders
30 Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans
31 Zach Wilson New York Jets
32 Desmond Ridder Atlanta Falcons

Tier 11

Value Estimation: Late Third-Round Pick

33 Dorian Thompson-Robinson Cleveland Browns
34 Joshua Dobbs Arizona Cardinals
35 Tyler Huntley Baltimore Ravens
36 Aaron Rodgers New York Jets
37 Trey Lance Dallas Cowboys
38 Will Levis Tennessee Titans
39 Aidan O’Connell Las Vegas Raiders
40 Gardner Minshew Indianapolis Colts
41 Jameis Winston New Orleans Saints
42 Taylor Heinicke Atlanta Falcons
43 Sam Darnold San Francisco 49ers
44 Malik Willis Tennessee Titans

Big QB Movers

C.J. Stroud – 8th (Previously 13th)

C.J. Stroud is off to a fantastic start this season. He appears to be on the Justin Herbert trajectory, which, funny enough, was the quarterback at the top of his prospect bucket coming into the NFL. 

Stroud’s 21.1 passing points per game would only trail Herbert as a rookie. Stroud has the third-most passing yards through a rookie’s first four games, only trailing Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. 

His current 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt and 8.0 yards per attempt rank third among all quarterbacks. It only took a month, but Stroud has already shown himself to be a top-eight dynasty quarterback, and it didn’t even take much rushing production to do so.

Brock Purdy – 18th (Previously 21st)

While the San Francisco 49ers continue to be a low passing volume offense, Brock Purdy continues to prove he is a strong NFL passer. His 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt rank first in the league, and his 9.1 yards per attempt only trail Tua Tagovailoa. 

Purdy’s upside isn’t quite elite since he’s just an efficient passer with low volume and mediocre rushing production. However, that doesn’t mean Purdy can’t be a vital dynasty asset. 

Running Back Rankings

Atlanta Falcons Bijan Robinson

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

1 21.6 Years Old Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

2 27.3 Years Old Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

3 22.3 Years Old Breece Hall New York Jets
4 24.6 Years Old Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts
5 21.5 Years Old Jahmyr Gibbs Detroit Lions
6 26.6 Years Old Saquon Barkley New York Giants
7 21.9 Years Old De’Von Achane Miami Dolphins
8 28.3 Years Old Austin Ekeler Los Angeles Chargers
9 24.6 Years Old Travis Etienne Jacksonville Jaguars
10 26.4 Years Old Tony Pollard Dallas Cowboys
11 25.6 Years Old Josh Jacobs Las Vegas Raiders

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

12 22.9 Years Old Kenneth Walker III Seattle Seahawks
13 24.7 Years Old D’Andre Swift Philadelphia Eagles
14 24.0 Years Old James Cook Buffalo Bills

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

15 28.1 Years Old Alvin Kamara New Orleans Saints
16 27.1 Years Old Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals
17 25.5 Years Old Rhamondre Stevenson New England Patriots
18 23.4 Years Old Javonte Williams Denver Broncos

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

19 24.5 Years Old Brian Robinson Washington Commanders
20 28.8 Years Old Aaron Jones Green Bay Packers
21 29.7 Years Old Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

22 24.5 Years Old Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Chiefs
23 28.3 Years Old James Conner Arizona Cardinals
24 26.3 Years Old David Montgomery Detroit Lions
25 23.0 Years Old Kyren Williams Los Angeles Rams
26 22.7 Years Old Zach Charbonnet Seattle Seahawks
27 31.4 Years Old Raheem Mostert Miami Dolphins
28 24.7 Years Old Rachaad White Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29 26.4 Years Old Miles Sanders Carolina Panthers
30 25.2 Years Old Alexander Mattison Minnesota Vikings
31 23.6 Years Old Dameon Pierce Houston Texans
32 25.5 Years Old Najee Harris Pittsburgh Steelers

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

33 27.7 Years Old Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns
34 24.0 Years Old Jerome Ford Cleveland Browns
35 25.4 Years Old Khalil Herbert Chicago Bears
36 23.4 Years Old Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Falcons
37 24.8 Years Old Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh Steelers
38 22.6 Years Old Roschon Johnson Chicago Bears
39 24.5 Years Old Kenneth Gainwell Philadelphia Eagles
40 22.2 Years Old Tyjae Spears Tennessee Titans
41 22.0 Years Old Tank Bigsby Jacksonville Jaguars
42 21.3 Years Old Kendre Miller New Orleans Saints
43 25.7 Years Old Zack Moss Indianapolis Colts
44 28.4 Years Old Jamaal Williams New Orleans Saints
45 25.4 Years Old AJ Dillon Green Bay Packers
46 25.4 Years Old Elijah Mitchell San Francisco 49ers
47 25.2 Years Old Antonio Gibson Washington Commanders
48 24.2 Years Old Cam Akers Minnesota Vikings
49 28.0 Years Old Samaje Perine Denver Broncos
50 28.4 Years Old Gus Edwards Baltimore Ravens
51 24.2 Years Old Chuba Hubbard Carolina Panthers
52 28.1 Years Old Dalvin Cook New York Jets
53 22.9 Years Old Jaleel McLaughlin Denver Broncos

Big RB Movers

De’Von Achane – 7th (Previously 12th)

There are five running backs with at least 3.00 yards per team rush attempt. The lowest carry percentage amongst them is 60.6 percent, courtesy of Christian McCaffrey. 

However, De’Von Achane is doing so with a whopping 32.1 percent carry percentage. He’s posted at least a 14 percent target share in back-to-back weeks. That level of usage and production in a Mike McDaniels rushing scheme has a rare upside. In fact, dynasty RB7 might be too low come next week.

D’Andre Swift – 13th (Previously 20th)

D’Andre Swift is creating his fantasy production in a way we haven’t seen him do before. He has a 42.1 carry percentage with 2.60 yards per team rush attempt this season, which would be a career-high. 

Yet, he is posting just an 8.5 percent target share, which would be a career low. He’s put up 15.3 points per game while only being deployed on 46.1 percent route participation. If that picks up and he sustains his productivity on the ground, his upside is massive.

Isiah Pacheco – 22nd (Previously 30th)

We saw Isiah Pacheco rush for a 40 percent carry percentage as a rookie. In his second season, we’ve only seen that grow. The more important aspect of Pacheco’s success is his increased receiving usage. 

His 2.2 percent target share last season has grown into an 8.1 percent target share this season, with an efficient 0.61 yards per team pass attempt. If he continues this usage, which appears likely based on the previous season’s workload, Pacheco will be a fringe top-12 running back for the rest of the season.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

1 Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings
2 Ja’Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

3 AJ Brown Philadelphia Eagles
4 Chris Olave New Orleans Saints
5 Garrett Wilson New York Jets
6 CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys
7 Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions
8 DeVonta Smith Philadelphia Eagles

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

9 Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins
10 Stefon Diggs Buffalo Bills
11 Davante Adams Las Vegas Raiders

Tier Five

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

12 Puka Nacua Los Angeles Rams
13 Brandon Aiyuk San Francisco 49ers
14 Keenan Allen Los Angeles Chargers
15 Jaylen Waddle Miami Dolphins
16 DK Metcalf Seattle Seahawks
17 Drake London Atlanta Falcons
18 Cooper Kupp Los Angeles Rams
19 Tee Higgins Cincinnati Bengals
20 Jordan Addison Minnesota Vikings
21 Zay Flowers Baltimore Ravens

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

22 Deebo Samuel San Francisco 49ers
23 Michael Pittman Jr Indianapolis Colts
24 Nico Collins Houston Texans
25 Diontae Johnson Pittsburgh Steelers
26 Quentin Johnston Los Angeles Chargers
27 Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks
28 Christian Watson Green Bay Packers
29 DJ Moore Chicago Bears
30 Marquise Brown Arizona Cardinals
31 Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32 Calvin Ridley Jacksonville Jaguars
33 George Pickens Pittsburgh Steelers
34 Amari Cooper Cleveland Browns
35 Chris Godwin Tampa Bay Buccaneers
36 Christian Kirk Jacksonville Jaguars

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

37 Jameson Williams Detroit Lions
38 Jakobi Meyers Las Vegas Raiders
39 Michael Thomas New Orleans Saints
40 Marvin Mims Denver Broncos
41 Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs
42 Romeo Doubs Green Bay Packers

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

43 Tank Dell Houston Texans
44 Jayden Reed Green Bay Packers
45 Treylon Burks Tennessee Titans
46 Courtland Sutton Denver Broncos
47 Tyler Lockett Seattle Seahawks
48 Terry McLaurin Washington Commanders
49 Jerry Jeudy Denver Broncos
50 Jahan Dotson Washington Commanders
51 DeAndre Hopkins Tennessee Titans
52 Tutu Atwell Los Angeles Rams
53 Elijah Moore Cleveland Browns

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

54 Josh Downs Indianapolis Colts
55 Kendrick Bourne New England Patriots
56 Tyler Boyd Cincinnati Bengals
57 Rashid Shaheed New Orleans Saints
58 Curtis Samuel Washington Commanders
59 Michael Wilson Arizona Cardinals
60 Wan’Dale Robinson New York Giants
61 Gabriel Davis Buffalo Bills
62 Jonathan Mingo Carolina Panthers
63 Darius Slayton New York Giants
64 Kadarius Toney Kansas City Chiefs
65 Darnell Mooney Chicago Bears
66 Rashod Bateman Baltimore Ravens
67 Skyy Moore Kansas City Chiefs
68 Odell Beckham Jr Baltimore Ravens
69 Zay Jones Jacksonville Jaguars
70 Allen Lazard New York Jets
71 Donovan Peoples-Jones Cleveland Browns
72 Tyquan Thornton New England Patriots
73 Jalin Hyatt New York Giants
74 Brandin Cooks Dallas Cowboys
75 Alec Pierce Indianapolis Colts
76 Rondale Moore Arizona Cardinals

 Big WR Movers

 Puka Nacua – 12th (Previously 25th)

There have only been three rookie wide receivers to post at least 2.50 yards per team pass attempt: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. 

Puka Nacua is delivering more than 3.00 yards per team pass attempt, along with a 31.3 percent target share on a 9.3 average depth of target. It’s a small sample size, but it continues growing, and the historical comparisons are becoming more realistic. 

Even with Cooper Kupp returning soon, we should expect strong Nacua production. He’s officially a top-12 dynasty wide receiver.

Quentin Johnston – 26th (Previously 20th)

It’s too obvious to say that we’ve been disappointed by Quentin Johnston’s start to his NFL career. He’s been a consistent faller in our dynasty rankings, but we shouldn’t be getting too carried away with the depth of the fall. 

By the time Johnston plays next, he’ll be coming off a bye week after putting up an 18.3 percent target rate on a 10.7 average depth of target in his first four games. We just have to hope the 35.7 percent route participation takes a giant leap. He’s dealing with a strange 62.5 percent catchable target rate from Herbert, which ranks 81st among wide receivers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 27th (Previously 18th)

We’ve only seen three wide receivers get drafted in the top two rounds and earn their rookie targets on an average depth of target less than six. It’s not an ideal spot to be earning targets for fantasy success. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is earning a target of 21.7 percent of the time he runs a route. Many of those targets have come from behind the line of scrimmage, with an average depth of target of just 3.3. There must be some form of a role change after Seattle’s bye. 

Tight End Rankings

Evan Engram Jacksonville Jaguars tight end

Tier One

Value Estimation: Two First-Round Picks

1 28.0 Years Old Mark Andrews Baltimore Ravens
2 33.9 Years Old Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

Tier Two

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

3 22.9 Years Old Kyle Pitts Atlanta Falcons
4 22.7 Years Old Sam LaPorta Detroit Lions
5 26.2 Years Old T.J. Hockenson Minnesota Vikings

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick:

6 22.9 Years Old Luke Musgrave Green Bay Packers
7 23.9 Years Old Dalton Kincaid Buffalo Bills

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

8 29.1 Years Old Evan Engram Jacksonville Jaguars
9 31.0 Years Old Darren Waller New York Giants
10 30.0 Years Old George Kittle San Francisco 49ers
11 28.7 Years Old Dallas Goedert Philadelphia Eagles
12 24.9 Years Old Pat Freiermuth Pittsburgh Steelers
13 27.2 Years Old David Njoku Cleveland Browns
14 23.5 Years Old Greg Dulcich Denver Broncos

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

15 24.5 Years Old Cole Kmet Chicago Bears
16 25.0 Years Old Jelani Woods Indianapolis Colts
17 25.0 Years Old Luke Schoonmaker Dallas Cowboys
18 23.8 Years Old Trey McBride Arizona Cardinals
19 21.2 Years Old Michael Mayer Las Vegas Raiders

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

20 32.9 Years Old Zach Ertz Arizona Cardinals
21 24.6 Years Old Jake Ferguson Dallas Cowboys
22 28.8 Years Old Hunter Henry New England Patriots
23 25.8 Years Old Noah Fant Seattle Seahawks
24 29.2 Years Old Gerald Everett Los Angeles Chargers
25 22.1 Years Old Darnell Washington Pittsburgh Steelers
26 28.0 Years Old Jonnu Smith Atlanta Falcons
27 30.7 Years Old Tyler Higbee Los Angeles Rams
28 24.0 Years Old Chigoziem Okonkwo Tennessee Titans
29 26.8 Years Old Dawson Knox Buffalo Bills
30 24.4 Years Old Cade Otton Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31 27.2 Years Old Dalton Schultz Houston Texans

 Big TE Movers

Evan Engram – 8th (Previously 12th)

Evan Engram is the only tight end with at least 12 points per game every week this season. Coming off a 19.9 percent target share and 1.59 yards per team pass attempt on a Trevor Lawrence-led offense, Engram will continue to provide a strong floor. 

If there will be high-end weeks, it will have to come on an average depth of target deeper than his current 3.7.

Cole Kmet – 15th (Previously 19th)

Cole Kmet is off to a top-six tight end start with strong peripherals. He’s posting the seventh-highest target share at 19.5 percent. That’s similar to T.J. Hockenson, except it’s on a lower route participation and a deeper average depth of target. 

Unfortunately, Kmet’s situation isn’t ideal. The Bears throw just 30.8 pass attempts per game.

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Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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