Analysis
10/7/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 DFS Top Plays
Every week, our DFS team releases their favorite plays for the main slate on DraftKings. These plays will be geared toward the DraftKings Milly Maker tournament.
Chalk players are guys whom we expect to have high rostership. They will be popular in our competitors’ lineups. Playing chalk in DFS is fine; however, you will want pieces of your lineup to be an outlier play to separate yourself from the field.
If 50 percent of your opponents start Christian McCaffrey in the running back slot, and he gives you only 12 fantasy points, the 50 percent of lineups without the expensive landmine of McCaffrey get an immediate boost.
An outlier player is someone who is not popular — usually around five percent or fewer lineups will have this type of player. If only three percent of the field plays Darius Slayton in a wide receiver slot, and he scores 18 points, then you have an edge on about 97 percent of the field.
A value is any cheap player whom we expect to have a solid game. These players are usually relatively popular but help you play the studs. A textbook value example would be a moderately popular tight end for $2,700 who scores 11 fantasy points.
A ceiling player–type will be expected to produce one of their highest outputs in the given matchup. An example is Ja’Marr Chase; at more than $8,000 in salary, we want to play Chase in the games where his output is north of 25 or 30 DraftKings points, not when it’s 18.
We’ll review DFS Showdown strategy before every island game in our free Discord. We’re also dropping player prop bets in there with write-ups throughout the week and will answer fantasy start-sit questions, too.
Top Week 5 DFS Plays
Quarterbacks
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,200 | High | Chalk Ceiling |
| Lamar Jackson | $7,800 | Low | Outlier |
| Anthony Richardson | $7,000 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,600 | Medium | Value |
Running Backs
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | $7,700 | High | Chalk Ceiling |
| David Montgomery | $6,600 | High | Chalk Ceiling |
| Joe Mixon | $6,400 | Medium | Value |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,200 | Low | Outlier Value |
| De’Von Achane | $6,100 | High | Chalk |
| James Conner | $5,800 | Low | Outlier Value |
| Isiah Pacheco | $5,700 | Medium | Value |
| Breece Hall | $5,400 | High | Value |
Wide Receivers
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $9,000 | High | Chalk Ceiling |
| A.J. Brown | $8,000 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,900 | High | Chalk Ceiling |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,400 | Low | Outlier |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $5,700 | Medium | Value |
| Zay Flowers | $5,500 | Low | Outlier |
| Tutu Atwell | $5,300 | Low | Outlier Value |
| Marquise Brown | $5,000 | High | Chalk Value |
| Tank Dell | $4,800 | Medium | Value |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | $3,000 | High | Chalk Value |
Tight Ends
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,600 | High | Chalk |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,500 | Low | Low Ceiling |
| Sam LaPorta | $5,000 | High | Chalk |
| Tyler Conklin | $3,200 | Low | Contrarian |
Defenses
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | $3,100 | Medium | Value |
| Jets | $3,100 | Low | Outlier |
| Saints | $3,000 | Medium | Value |
| Titans | $2,400 | High | Chalk Value |
Follow Our DFS Team
Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS
Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets
Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL
Mark Garcia: @HilowFF
