Analysis
10/5/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Cowboys (3-1) at 49ers (4-0)
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Total: 45
Weather: Mild wind, no current concerns
The Line Report
Neither the spread nor the total has moved for this contest as of Wednesday afternoon.
49ers Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The Dallas Cowboys’ defense doesn’t have a whole lot of weaknesses to exploit. In Week 3, the Arizona Cardinals had significant success on the ground by purposely running at Micah Parsons. The following week, the New England Patriots couldn't duplicate that approach. Aside from that potential anomaly and a few coverage malfunctions that have led to big plays, the Cowboys' defense has been lights out.
Brock Purdy leads the league in rating and QBR while averaging just more than 250 passing yards per game. He only has five touchdown passes, which isn’t a problem because the San Francisco 49ers have scored at least 30 points in every game.
Part of that is because RB Christian McCaffrey has seven total touchdowns while leading the league in rushing. McCaffrey is also second among running backs in receiving yards. McCaffrey is the current Offensive Player of the Year favorite. If he keeps up this level of production, he’ll be in the MVP conversation.
WR Brandon Aiyuk has missed a game, but his 27.8 percent target share just edges out Deebo Samuel’s 25.5 percent target share. Consider them the co-headliners of Purdy’s passing attack. George Kittle had 90 receiving yards on seven receptions against the New York Giants in Week 3. He has just seven catches for 58 receiving yards across his other three games.
Cowboys Offense vs. the 49ers Defense
The 49ers have no weaknesses on defense. They have a premium pass rush, a high-quality secondary and the best run defense in the game. That puts a lot on Dak Prescott’s shoulders, whose play has been closer to underwhelming than spectacular during the past two seasons.
CeeDee Lamb leads Cowboys’ pass catchers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, target share and air yards share. Michael Gallup is second on the team in receiving yards. Brandin Cooks has missed one game, but he has only 66 receiving yards total. TE Jake Ferguson is second on the team in targets, receptions and target share.
Tony Pollard is fifth in the league in rushing yards and second in carries. Pollard is ninth among running backs in targets but just 23rd at the position in receiving yards. No Cowboys offensive player has an advantageous matchup in this contest.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Cowboys at 49ers
The 49ers have been the league's most complete team through the first four games. They’ve played in three of the last four NFC Championship games, making them a model of football stability over the past half-decade.
If you’re betting on the 49ers, that mixture of reliability and high-end talent is what you’re building that bet around. The Cowboys are a similarly talented team that has lost to San Francisco in the playoffs the past two years. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you are primarily betting on them continuing to be themselves.
Dallas has won its three games this season by a total score of 108-13. Their loss was a decisive one in Arizona where the Cardinals bullied Dallas in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys’ coaching staff didn’t put Prescott in positions to succeed in that contest. However, for a player who is widely viewed as a top-10 quarterback in the league, that loss has to mostly fall on Prescott.
That’s important this week because Dallas has two realistic paths to a win in San Francisco. The first is Prescott leading this offense to a win against an elite defense and a contending team. The other is the Cowboys’ pass rush creating enough havoc for Purdy to have his first meltdown game as a professional quarterback.
Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 10-10
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 7-7
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
