Analysis

9/27/23

12 min read

2023 NFL Week 4 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

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We’re officially through the first three weeks of the 2023 NFL season, and there are plenty of surprises — and mainstays — to unpack. These next few weeks are the most chaotic because peripherals and fantasy production are beginning to stabilize.

Let these rankings be your guide to avoid the dreaded over- and underreactions. 

Miller's Week 4 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Four 

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier 10

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Tier 11

Value Estimation: Late Third-Round Pick

Big QB Movers

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — 9th (Previously 11th)

Coming into last season, Tua Tagovailoa’s biggest risk was that he wasn’t providing meaningful rushing production to go along with subpar passing peripherals. Still, last year, he showed he could be a good passer. He put up more than 20 points per game strictly as a passer.

That was on the back of a very impressive 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a 6.3 percent passing touchdown rate. Through three games this season, he’s showing he doesn’t need meaningful rushing production to put up high-end fantasy results.

His 27.3 points per game are second among all quarterbacks, while his 10.8 adjusted yards per attempt and 7.9 percent passing touchdown rate lead the league. Even without putting up 0.5 points per game on the ground, Tagovailoa shows he can still be a top-producing quarterback.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — 13th (Previously 15th)

This has gone slightly under the radar, but C.J. Stroud is off to an impressive start. Typically, we don’t expect rookies to provide quality passing production, especially in their first three weeks. But Stroud is averaging more than 20 points per game as a passer. The only other rookie quarterbacks to do that were Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield.

Stroud’s 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt is fifth in the entire league. That number only trails Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Herbert and Kirk Cousins. It’s been an encouraging start for the second-overall pick.

Running Back Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big RB Movers

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins — 12th (Previously 29th)

De’Von Achane joins Doug Martin and Jahvid Best as the only rookie running backs to put up at least 50 fantasy points in a game — and Achane did it in just his second game. It only took him a 41.9 percent carry percentage and a 14.3 percent target share to accomplish this feat.

We knew Achane had plenty of upside based on his prospect profile, but when you combine that with possibly the most efficient offense in the NFL, you get a running back who doesn’t need high usage to be extremely productive. It didn’t take long for Achane to be a top-12 dynasty running back.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans — 21st (Previously 17th)

It’s not as if Derrick Henry isn’t getting the rushing volume we’ve come to expect from him. His 71.8 percent carry percentage ranks fifth among all running backs. The problem is he's not running efficiently.

His 2.28 yards per team rush attempt rank 20th, which is far off from where we would expect a running back with a carry percentage above 70 percent to be. This is still a small sample, but with Henry nearing 30 years old, the risk of this being who he is now grows by the week.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans — 29th (Previously 21st)

The issue with Dameon Pierce’s profile, aside from the draft capital risk, is he hasn’t shown to be an adequate receiving back. So when the carry percentage isn’t massive, and there’s a lack of strong efficiency, the floor is quite low.

This is why Pierce is the No. 31 highest-scoring running back at 9.0 fantasy points per game. He was supported last season by a carry percentage above 70 percent, but that was with the previous coaching regime.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big WR Movers

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints — 3rd (Previously 5th)

We're officially naming Chris Olave the No. 3 dynasty wide receiver. He’s posting 17.4 fantasy points per game without even scoring a touchdown. His Year 2 peripherals also place him near superstar status with a 30.8 percent target share and 2.9 yards per team pass attempt.

There have only been two second-year wide receivers to post at least a 30 percent target share: A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. Those two combined for seven top-five seasons and 11 top-12 seasons. Olave's second-year breakout is here, and it’s massive. 

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers — 31st (Previously 40th)

Keenan Allen has been a buy for contenders all offseason long because he’s posted at least a 20 percent target share each season and is attached to a high-volume passing offense with Herbert. The only risk that was keeping Allen’s value low was the decline due to age.

But through three weeks of his age 31 season, he’s not showing any signs of slowing down, with a 32 percent target share and 3.30 yards per team pass attempt, leading to the highest fantasy points per game among wide receivers.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans — 48th (Previously 63rd)

While Tank Dell doesn’t have the most promising prospect profile, he’s been encouraging through the first three weeks. Dell has posted a 21.9 percent target rate and 2.61 yards per route run on 68.6 percent rate participation.

Even with a lower hit rate prospect profile, the only wide receivers to post at least a 16 percent target share in his prospect bucket are Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, John Brown and Brandon LaFell. There is certainly plenty of promise thus far with Dell.

Tight End Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: Two First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick:

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big TE Movers

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions — 4th (Previously 5th)

Tight ends typically aren’t high-end producers, especially early in their rookie seasons. Yet, through the first three weeks, Sam LaPorta has a higher target rate than T.J. Hockenson, a higher yards per route run than Travis Kelce and a higher fantasy points per game than Mark Andrews.

A rookie tight end producing as a top-three option during his rookie season — let alone the first three weeks of his career — is essentially unheard of. Jordan Reed holds the record for most fantasy points per game by a rookie tight end at 15.2. LaPorta is currently producing 17.2.

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Ian Miller

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Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.