Analysis
9/27/23
12 min read
2023 NFL Week 4 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
We’re officially through the first three weeks of the 2023 NFL season, and there are plenty of surprises — and mainstays — to unpack. These next few weeks are the most chaotic because peripherals and fantasy production are beginning to stabilize.
Let these rankings be your guide to avoid the dreaded over- and underreactions.
Miller’s Week 4 Dynasty Rankings
Quarterback Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals |
| 9 | Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks
| 10 | Anthony Richardson | Indianapolis Colts |
| 11 | Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 12 | Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers |
| 13 | C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans |
| 14 | Justin Fields | Chicago Bears |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 15 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings |
| 17 | Russell Wilson | Denver Broncos |
| 18 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions |
| 19 | Geno Smith | Seattle Seahawks |
| 20 | Daniel Jones | New York Giants |
| 21 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers |
| 22 | Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 23 | Mac Jones | New England Patriots |
| 24 | Derek Carr | New Orleans Saints |
Tier Nine
Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick
| 25 | Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 26 | Sam Howell | Washington Commanders |
Tier 10
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 27 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams |
| 29 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 30 | Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans |
| 31 | Desmond Ridder | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier 11
Value Estimation: Late Third-Round Pick
| 32 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | Cleveland Browns |
| 33 | Zach Wilson | New York Jets |
| 34 | Trey Lance | Dallas Cowboys |
| 35 | Sam Darnold | San Francisco 49ers |
| 36 | Tyler Huntley | Baltimore Ravens |
| 37 | Will Levis | Tennessee Titans |
| 38 | Aaron Rodgers | New York Jets |
| 39 | Malik Willis | Tennessee Titans |
| 40 | Aidan O’Connell | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 41 | Gardner Minshew | Indianapolis Colts |
| 42 | Joshua Dobbs | Arizona Cardinals |
Big QB Movers
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — 9th (Previously 11th)
Coming into last season, Tua Tagovailoa’s biggest risk was that he wasn’t providing meaningful rushing production to go along with subpar passing peripherals. Still, last year, he showed he could be a good passer. He put up more than 20 points per game strictly as a passer.
That was on the back of a very impressive 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a 6.3 percent passing touchdown rate. Through three games this season, he’s showing he doesn’t need meaningful rushing production to put up high-end fantasy results.
His 27.3 points per game are second among all quarterbacks, while his 10.8 adjusted yards per attempt and 7.9 percent passing touchdown rate lead the league. Even without putting up 0.5 points per game on the ground, Tagovailoa shows he can still be a top-producing quarterback.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — 13th (Previously 15th)
This has gone slightly under the radar, but C.J. Stroud is off to an impressive start. Typically, we don’t expect rookies to provide quality passing production, especially in their first three weeks. But Stroud is averaging more than 20 points per game as a passer. The only other rookie quarterbacks to do that were Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield.
Stroud’s 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt is fifth in the entire league. That number only trails Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Herbert and Kirk Cousins. It’s been an encouraging start for the second-overall pick.
Running Back Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks
| 1 | 21.6 Years Old | Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks
| 2 | 21.5 Years Old | Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | 22.3 Years Old | Breece Hall | New York Jets |
| 4 | 27.3 Years Old | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | 24.6 Years Old | Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 6 | 26.6 Years Old | Saquon Barkley | New York Giants |
| 7 | 28.3 Years Old | Austin Ekeler | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 8 | 26.4 Years Old | Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 9 | 24.6 Years Old | Travis Etienne | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 10 | 25.6 Years Old | Josh Jacobs | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 11 | 22.9 Years Old | Kenneth Walker III | Seattle Seahawks |
| 12 | 21.9 Years Old | De’Von Achane | Miami Dolphins |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 13 | 25.5 Years Old | Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots |
| 14 | 23.4 Years Old | Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos |
| 15 | 28.1 Years Old | Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints |
| 16 | 27.1 Years Old | Joe Mixon | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 17 | 24.0 Years Old | James Cook | Buffalo Bills |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 18 | 28.8 Years Old | Aaron Jones | Green Bay Packers |
| 19 | 24.5 Years Old | Brian Robinson | Washington Commanders |
| 20 | 24.7 Years Old | D’Andre Swift | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 21 | 29.7 Years Old | Derrick Henry | Tennessee Titans |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick
| 22 | 28.3 Years Old | James Conner | Arizona Cardinals |
| 23 | 24.7 Years Old | Rachaad White | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 24 | 26.4 Years Old | Miles Sanders | Carolina Panthers |
| 25 | 25.5 Years Old | Najee Harris | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 26 | 22.7 Years Old | Zach Charbonnet | Seattle Seahawks |
| 27 | 23.0 Years Old | Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams |
| 28 | 26.3 Years Old | David Montgomery | Detroit Lions |
| 29 | 23.6 Years Old | Dameon Pierce | Houston Texans |
| 30 | 24.5 Years Old | Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 31 | 25.2 Years Old | Alexander Mattison | Minnesota Vikings |
| 32 | 23.4 Years Old | Tyler Allgeier | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 33 | 24.0 Years Old | Jerome Ford | Cleveland Browns |
| 34 | 22.6 Years Old | Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears |
| 35 | 22.2 Years Old | Tyjae Spears | Tennessee Titans |
| 36 | 21.3 Years Old | Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints |
| 37 | 22.0 Years Old | Tank Bigsby | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 38 | 31.4 Years Old | Raheem Mostert | Miami Dolphins |
| 39 | 24.8 Years Old | Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 40 | 27.7 Years Old | Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns |
| 41 | 22.6 Years Old | Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears |
| 42 | 24.5 Years Old | Kenneth Gainwell | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 43 | 28.4 Years Old | Jamaal Williams | New Orleans Saints |
| 44 | 25.4 Years Old | AJ Dillon | Green Bay Packers |
| 45 | 25.4 Years Old | Elijah Mitchell | San Francisco 49ers |
| 46 | 28.1 Years Old | Dalvin Cook | New York Jets |
| 47 | 24.2 Years Old | Cam Akers | Minnesota Vikings |
| 48 | 28.4 Years Old | Gus Edwards | Baltimore Ravens |
| 49 | 25.7 Years Old | Zack Moss | Indianapolis Colts |
| 50 | 28.0 Years Old | Samaje Perine | Denver Broncos |
| 51 | 25.2 Years Old | Antonio Gibson | Washington Commanders |
| 52 | 25.4 Years Old | Khalil Herbert | Chicago Bears |
| 53 | 26.6 Years Old | Damien Harris | Buffalo Bills |
| 54 | 26.0 Years Old | Devin Singletary | Houston Texans |
| 55 | 21.9 Years Old | Sean Tucker | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Big RB Movers
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins — 12th (Previously 29th)
De’Von Achane joins Doug Martin and Jahvid Best as the only rookie running backs to put up at least 50 fantasy points in a game — and Achane did it in just his second game. It only took him a 41.9 percent carry percentage and a 14.3 percent target share to accomplish this feat.
We knew Achane had plenty of upside based on his prospect profile, but when you combine that with possibly the most efficient offense in the NFL, you get a running back who doesn’t need high usage to be extremely productive. It didn’t take long for Achane to be a top-12 dynasty running back.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans — 21st (Previously 17th)
It’s not as if Derrick Henry isn’t getting the rushing volume we’ve come to expect from him. His 71.8 percent carry percentage ranks fifth among all running backs. The problem is he’s not running efficiently.
His 2.28 yards per team rush attempt rank 20th, which is far off from where we would expect a running back with a carry percentage above 70 percent to be. This is still a small sample, but with Henry nearing 30 years old, the risk of this being who he is now grows by the week.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans — 29th (Previously 21st)
The issue with Dameon Pierce’s profile, aside from the draft capital risk, is he hasn’t shown to be an adequate receiving back. So when the carry percentage isn’t massive, and there’s a lack of strong efficiency, the floor is quite low.
This is why Pierce is the No. 31 highest-scoring running back at 9.0 fantasy points per game. He was supported last season by a carry percentage above 70 percent, but that was with the previous coaching regime.
Wide Receiver Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Ja’Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks
| 3 | Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | AJ Brown | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Garrett Wilson | New York Jets |
| 7 | DeVonta Smith | Philadelphia Eagles |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 8 | Amon-Ra St Brown | Detroit Lions |
| 9 | Drake London | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick
| 10 | Tyreek Hill | Miami Dolphins |
| 11 | Stefon Diggs | Buffalo Bills |
| 12 | Davante Adams | Las Vegas Raiders |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 13 | Jaylen Waddle | Miami Dolphins |
| 14 | Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 15 | DK Metcalf | Seattle Seahawks |
| 16 | Brandon Aiyuk | San Francisco 49ers |
| 17 | Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings |
| 18 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seattle Seahawks |
| 19 | Zay Flowers | Baltimore Ravens |
| 20 | Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 21 | Cooper Kupp | Los Angeles Rams |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 22 | Deebo Samuel | San Francisco 49ers |
| 23 | Calvin Ridley | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 24 | Michael Pittman Jr | Indianapolis Colts |
| 25 | Puka Nacua | Los Angeles Rams |
| 26 | Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 27 | Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers |
| 28 | George Pickens | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 29 | DJ Moore | Chicago Bears |
| 30 | Marquise Brown | Arizona Cardinals |
| 31 | Keenan Allen | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 32 | Amari Cooper | Cleveland Browns |
| 33 | Mike Evans | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 34 | Nico Collins | Houston Texans |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 35 | Christian Kirk | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 36 | Chris Godwin | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 37 | Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions |
| 38 | Treylon Burks | Tennessee Titans |
| 39 | Michael Thomas | New Orleans Saints |
| 40 | Tyler Lockett | Seattle Seahawks |
| 41 | Jerry Jeudy | Denver Broncos |
| 42 | Terry McLaurin | Washington Commanders |
| 43 | Jahan Dotson | Washington Commanders |
| 44 | DeAndre Hopkins | Tennessee Titans |
| 45 | Marvin Mims | Denver Broncos |
| 46 | Jayden Reed | Green Bay Packers |
| 47 | Jakobi Meyers | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 48 | Tank Dell | Houston Texans |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick
| 49 | Elijah Moore | Cleveland Browns |
| 50 | Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 51 | Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos |
| 52 | Tutu Atwell | Los Angeles Rams |
| 53 | Romeo Doubs | Green Bay Packers |
Tier Nine
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 54 | Kendrick Bourne | New England Patriots |
| 55 | Gabriel Davis | Buffalo Bills |
| 56 | Kadarius Toney | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 57 | Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts |
| 58 | Jonathan Mingo | Carolina Panthers |
| 59 | Rashid Shaheed | New Orleans Saints |
| 60 | Darius Slayton | New York Giants |
| 61 | Darnell Mooney | Chicago Bears |
| 62 | Brandin Cooks | Dallas Cowboys |
| 63 | Wan’Dale Robinson | New York Giants |
| 64 | Rashod Bateman | Baltimore Ravens |
| 65 | Skyy Moore | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 66 | Jalin Hyatt | New York Giants |
| 67 | Alec Pierce | Indianapolis Colts |
| 68 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | Cleveland Browns |
| 69 | Tyler Boyd | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 70 | Allen Lazard | New York Jets |
| 71 | Rondale Moore | Arizona Cardinals |
| 72 | Odell Beckham Jr | Baltimore Ravens |
| 73 | Curtis Samuel | Washington Commanders |
| 74 | Zay Jones | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 75 | Tyquan Thornton | New England Patriots |
| 76 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | New England Patriots |
Big WR Movers
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints — 3rd (Previously 5th)
We’re officially naming Chris Olave the No. 3 dynasty wide receiver. He’s posting 17.4 fantasy points per game without even scoring a touchdown. His Year 2 peripherals also place him near superstar status with a 30.8 percent target share and 2.9 yards per team pass attempt.
There have only been two second-year wide receivers to post at least a 30 percent target share: A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. Those two combined for seven top-five seasons and 11 top-12 seasons. Olave’s second-year breakout is here, and it’s massive.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers — 31st (Previously 40th)
Keenan Allen has been a buy for contenders all offseason long because he’s posted at least a 20 percent target share each season and is attached to a high-volume passing offense with Herbert. The only risk that was keeping Allen’s value low was the decline due to age.
But through three weeks of his age 31 season, he’s not showing any signs of slowing down, with a 32 percent target share and 3.30 yards per team pass attempt, leading to the highest fantasy points per game among wide receivers.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans — 48th (Previously 63rd)
While Tank Dell doesn’t have the most promising prospect profile, he’s been encouraging through the first three weeks. Dell has posted a 21.9 percent target rate and 2.61 yards per route run on 68.6 percent rate participation.
Even with a lower hit rate prospect profile, the only wide receivers to post at least a 16 percent target share in his prospect bucket are Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, John Brown and Brandon LaFell. There is certainly plenty of promise thus far with Dell.
Tight End Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: Two First-Round Picks
| 1 | 28.0 Years Old | Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | 33.9 Years Old | Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 3 | 22.9 Years Old | Kyle Pitts | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 4 | 22.7 Years Old | Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | 26.2 Years Old | TJ Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick:
| 6 | 22.9 Years Old | Luke Musgrave | Green Bay Packers |
| 7 | 23.9 Years Old | Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 8 | 31.0 Years Old | Darren Waller | New York Giants |
| 9 | 30.0 Years Old | George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers |
| 10 | 24.9 Years Old | Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 11 | 28.7 Years Old | Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 12 | 29.1 Years Old | Evan Engram | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 13 | 27.2 Years Old | David Njoku | Cleveland Browns |
| 14 | 23.5 Years Old | Greg Dulcich | Denver Broncos |
| 15 | 21.2 Years Old | Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick
| 16 | 23.8 Years Old | Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinals |
| 17 | 25.0 Years Old | Jelani Woods | Indianapolis Colts |
| 18 | 25.0 Years Old | Luke Schoonmaker | Dallas Cowboys |
| 19 | 24.5 Years Old | Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 20 | 32.9 Years Old | Zach Ertz | Arizona Cardinals |
| 21 | 28.8 Years Old | Hunter Henry | New England Patriots |
| 22 | 24.6 Years Old | Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys |
| 23 | 29.2 Years Old | Gerald Everett | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 24 | 25.8 Years Old | Noah Fant | Seattle Seahawks |
| 25 | 22.1 Years Old | Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 26 | 24.0 Years Old | Chigoziem Okonkwo | Tennessee Titans |
| 27 | 26.8 Years Old | Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills |
| 28 | 24.4 Years Old | Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 29 | 27.2 Years Old | Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans |
| 30 | 27.0 Years Old | Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints |
| 31 | 25.1 Years Old | Irv Smith Jr | Cincinnati Bengals |
Big TE Movers
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions — 4th (Previously 5th)
Tight ends typically aren’t high-end producers, especially early in their rookie seasons. Yet, through the first three weeks, Sam LaPorta has a higher target rate than T.J. Hockenson, a higher yards per route run than Travis Kelce and a higher fantasy points per game than Mark Andrews.
A rookie tight end producing as a top-three option during his rookie season — let alone the first three weeks of his career — is essentially unheard of. Jordan Reed holds the record for most fantasy points per game by a rookie tight end at 15.2. LaPorta is currently producing 17.2.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts
