Betting
12/14/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens (10-3) at Jaguars (8-5)
Spread: Jaguars +3.5
Total: 42.5
Weather: Potential for rain
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has stayed at Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5, with a few brief stints at Jaguars +4. The total has moved down from 43.5 to 42.5 points.
Jaguars Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Jaguars are scoring the ninth-most points per game in the league, but Trevor Lawrence is playing through an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are allowing the second-fewest points per game this year.
The Ravens are allowing the 21st-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Christian Kirk is on injured reserve, which makes Calvin Ridley the top wide receiver in the Jaguars' passing attack. Ridley’s 55 receptions are third on the team, and his 742 receiving yards are fifth. He leads the team with five receiving touchdowns, and his 21.2 percent target share is second.
Zay Jones missed a month in the middle of the season, but he has 22 targets over his last two games. He had 14 last week against the Cleveland Browns while Kirk was sidelined. Sixth-round rookie Parker Washington rounds out the receiving corps with nine targets over the last two weeks.
Baltimore is giving up the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Evan Engram leads the Jaguars in receptions (84) and target share (22.5 percent). He’s third on the team in receiving yards (701) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (3).
Travis Etienne is fifth in the league in rushing yards (806) and sixth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Etienne is sixth among running backs in receiving yards with 383. The Ravens' defense is giving up the 17th-most rushing yards and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.
Ravens Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
Lamar Jackson is currently third in MVP betting markets, but he’s off the pace in every production category that’s been relevant to awards voters. He’ll have a chance to make up ground against Jacksonville, which has given up more than 300 passing yards to Joe Flacco and Jake Browning over the past two weeks.
Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in receptions (64), receiving yards (673) and target share (24.3 percent). He has been the stand-alone top option in Baltimore’s passing attack since TE Mark Andrews was sidelined in Week 11.
Odell Beckham Jr. has stepped up over that span, with two 95-plus yard spikes over the past three games. Beckham has 31 receptions for 505 receiving yards on a 17.6 percent target share. Nearly half (247) of Beckham’s receiving yards have come over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Jaguars give up the seventh-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Similarly, the Jaguars are giving up the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. In the two full games since Andrews’ injury, Isaiah Likely has 13 total targets. Likely had five receptions last week against the Los Angeles Rams for 83 receiving yards and a score.
Jackson's 644 rushing yards lead the team, but Gus Edwards is second with 605. Edwards also has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season — he leads Ravens runners in receiving yards with a meager 130. Explosive rookie Keaton Mitchell has between eight and nine carries in four of his last five games. However, he has out-carried Edwards 18 to 14 over the past two weeks. This aspect will be something to watch, because the Jaguars are giving up the third-fewest rushing yards but the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
These teams faced each other in Week 12 last year, and the Jaguars won, 28-27, in Jacksonville.
If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you need a few things to go your way. First, you need Lawrence to manage pressure despite his injury limitation. The Ravens’ four-man pass rush is noticeably better this season than last.
Jacksonville’s pass defense has been atrocious the last few weeks, so the unit needs to be much better against Baltimore to walk away with a win here. Because that group was just shredded by Flacco and Browning, a bet on the Jaguars is primarily a bet on Lawrence stepping up in prime time. An advantage you have as a Jaguars bettor is that Baltimore played overtime last week in a game where the team had to come from behind.
Jackson is one of the few quarterbacks in the league capable of carrying an NFL offense. He has an enormous ceiling as a passer in this matchup, so a bet on the Ravens starts as a bet on Jackson torching Jacksonville’s secondary. Any Ravens bet is a wager on one of the league’s most reliable teams. To that end, if you’re betting on Baltimore, you are betting on its defense being able to limit an injured Lawrence.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 21
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 38-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 25-23
