NFL Analysis

11/23/23

8 min read

2023 NFL Week 12: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 11.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 12 MATCHUPS

Packers vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Packers second, Lions fifth

On paper, this seems like a statistical mismatch. The Detroit Lions have been great on both sides of the ball and rank in the top 10 in five of the seven Total Points categories. 

The Green Bay Packers are below average in four of the seven Total Points categories. Don't be surprised if this game ends up being closer than the numbers suggest. 

Also of note, both teams rank in the top five in fourth-down decision-making, so expect to see some savvy calls that could make the difference in who wins.

Commanders vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 22nd, Cowboys seventh

The Dallas Cowboys are tied for the largest point differential in the NFL. The Cowboys' elite pass offense will likely cause major issues for the Washington Commanders' bottom-10 pass rush and pass coverage. 

Perhaps the one glimmer of hope for the Commanders is their fourth-ranked rush offense, but they will have to go through the Cowboys' ninth-ranked run defense to pull off the upset.

49ers vs. Seahawks

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers eighth, Seahawks 21st

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in receiving, so this game could easily turn into a shootout. 

If the Seahawks want to overcome the 49ers' advantages in passing and blocking, Seattle's best course of action is to use its eighth-ranked rush offense to exploit San Francisco's below-average run defense.

Dolphins vs. Jets

Fourth-down decisions: Dolphins 15th, Jets 17th

The New York Jets hope a quarterback shakeup will inject some life into a dead offense as they take on the Miami Dolphins. Miami’s offense hasn't looked quite as unstoppable as it did earlier in the season. 

Still, it will likely be challenging for the Jets' defense, especially when it comes to the run game, where the Dolphins rank No. 2.

Buccaneers vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Buccaneers 30th, Colts 32nd

Despite their struggles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a major advantage over the Indianapolis Colts in terms of receiving and run defense. 

It will be interesting to see whether the Colts having an advantage in rest will be enough to make up for these statistical deficits.

Patriots vs. Giants

Fourth-down decisions: Patriots 24th, Giants 26th

This game is far from a rematch of the two Super Bowl classics. The New York Giants and the New England Patriots are bottom 10 in passing, rushing and receiving. The Giants are also in the bottom 10 in run defense, pass rush and pass coverage. 

We haven’t even mentioned the ultimate battle of ineptitude: Will the Giants’ last-ranked blocking unit handle the Patriots’ last-ranked pass rush?

Steelers vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 31st, Bengals 11th

With so many unknowns on offense due to Joe Burrow’s injury, it could be more instructive to pay attention to defense, where the Pittsburgh Steelers have the advantage against the Cincinnati Bengals’ 32nd-ranked run defense. 

Panthers vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers 9th, Titans third

Neither of these teams has an away win, which is likely to remain the case after this game. The Carolina Panthers’ 27th-ranked run defense is tasked with trying to contain the Tennessee Titans’ No. 1-ranked rush offense. 

On the flip side, the Panthers could try to attack through the air. They are the last-ranked team in rushing, going up against the third-best run defense in the NFL.

Jaguars vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 25th, Texans fourth

The first contest between these teams resulted in a blowout road victory for the Houston Texans. Based solely on Total Points rankings, it seems a similar outcome could be in the works. 

The Texans have an advantage over the Jacksonville Jaguars in every category except pass coverage. The Jaguars’ offense has been up and down all season, but it needs to take advantage of the Texans’ bottom-10 pass coverage to keep up with the Texans’ explosive offense.

Saints vs. Falcons

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 23rd, Falcons 16th

The New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons rank No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, in pass coverage. Both teams also have noticeable weaknesses on the offensive side — for the Falcons, passing and blocking, and for the Saints, rushing and receiving. 

This game seems all but destined to be the rock fight of the week, which means anything can happen. The SIS Total Points rankings give the edge to the Falcons because of their stellar run defense.

Rams vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 12th, Cardinals sixth

The Los Angeles Rams’ offense has been the definition of average this season. Still, the unit is hoping it will do enough to outscore an Arizona Cardinals offense that ranks 27th overall and near the bottom in every offensive category except rushing. 

One highlight in this game is the coaching matchup, where both teams — especially the Cardinals — have shown a willingness to make aggressive fourth-down decisions.

Browns vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 14th, Broncos 19th

The Denver Broncos have the matchup advantage in all four offensive categories. Still, the Cleveland Browns are the best defensive team and have the advantage in all three defensive categories, including a league-best run defense and pass rush. 

If this game turns into a low-scoring affair, it could come down to the little things such as fourth-down decision-making; both teams are near the middle of the pack.

Bills vs. Eagles

Fourth-down decisions: Bills 10th, Eagles first

The Buffalo Bills have underperformed all season, but Total Points still likes them to pose trouble for a Philadelphia Eagles team with the best record in the NFL. 

The Bills’ No. 5 pass offense matches up well against the Eagles’ No. 22 pass coverage, which is good news for a team hoping to get back on track to make a deep playoff run. 

However, Buffalo will have to play things smart if it hopes to outgun a Philadelphia offense that ranks No. 1 overall in fourth-down decision-making.

Chiefs vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 29th, Raiders N/A

The Las Vegas Raiders rank 26th in offense and 29th in defense. The Kansas City Chiefs have matchup advantages over the Raiders in six of the seven Total Points categories. 

Based on these numbers, this should be an easy win for the Chiefs.  

Ravens vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 28th, Chargers 20th

The Baltimore Ravens’ offense, which ranks among the dozen best at all four facets, is poised to cause trouble for the Los Angeles Chargers’ league-worst defense. 

While the Chargers’ offense has been decent in passing and receiving, it will have to hold up against a Ravens defense that is No. 4 in pass rush and No. 1 in pass coverage.

Bears vs. Vikings

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 13th, Vikings 18th

This is a rematch from Week 6, albeit this time with two different quarterbacks leading the way. These two teams match up pretty closely overall. 

The Minnesota Vikings have a bottom-three pass coverage, and the Chicago Bears have a bottom-three pass rush. Neither team’s offense has been great, so it’s hard to bank on these flaws being exploited. 

This article was written by Matthew Lim.

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Sports Info Solutions

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