Analysis
11/9/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Will Levis Passing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 10 Player Props
Will Levis OVER 211.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
Will Levis has thrown for at least 238 passing yards in both starts this season. His air yards per attempt is 10.3, the highest in the NFL — he’s pushing the ball downfield. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow 294 passing yards per game, second-most in the NFL, via our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
Quarterbacks are getting there on pass volume (37 attempts per game vs. Tampa Bay is fifth-most) and passing efficiency (7.9 yards per pass attempt is third-highest). The only quarterbacks this year to not reach this number against Tampa Bay were Justin Fields in Week 2 and Derek Carr in Week 4 (when he had the injured shoulder). Overall, quarterbacks are 6-2 on this line against the Buccaneers.
Bet by: Larky
Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings and BetMGM
Austin Ekeler has benefited greatly from the injuries to Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. In Week 8, he had eight targets, catching seven for 94 yards. In Week 9, he had seven targets but caught just two for 23 yards. Anyone watching that game saw Ekeler make three costly drops, and I'm betting on his bounce-back performance.
Teams throw a lot against the Detroit Lions. In the past two games, Detroit faced Lamar Jackson, who blew them out (only 28 pass attempts), then the Aidan O'Connell-led Las Vegas Raiders (21 attempts). However, all six of their other opponents threw at least 36 times against Detroit.
The Lions allow 57 rushing yards per game to running backs (third-lowest) but 35 receiving yards per game (10th-highest). It's the right matchup for an elite pass-catching back like Ekeler, and he's unlikely to drop three passes again like last week.
Bet by: Larky
C.J. Stroud UNDER 255.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
C.J. Stroud is 4-4 against this number on the season, but he’s 1-3 over the past four games. Wide receiver Nico Collins is out for the Houston Texans. Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is opponent specific with his game plans, and Houston can’t run the ball. Tee Higgins is out so both quarterbacks have downgraded supporting casts, which hurts the overall game environment.
Bet by: Reynolds
Derek Carr OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Derek Carr has topped this mark in six of nine games. Two of the three games he went under were during the three-game stretch when his throwing shoulder was an issue. The other game came against the Indianapolis Colts when Rashid Shaheed had 153 yards on just three receptions. The Minnesota Vikings are allowing an average of 34 pass attempts per game.
Bet by: Reynolds
Tony Pollard OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
This is primarily a matchup based play against the New York Giants, who give up the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs per game. Tony Pollard has beaten this number in four of his last five games against the Giants, including two of three against Wink Martindale’s defense. He had 60 on the ground in that one loss. Josh Jacobs had 98 yards on heavy volume last week against the Giants. The Dallas Cowboys have a far more dangerous pass game than Las Vegas. If the Cowboys were -30 in a pick every game pool, I’d have to take them. Game script is a double-edged sword of sorts.
Bet by: Reynolds
Tyler Conklin Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Tyler Conklin has been over this number in six of his past seven games. The Raiders have allowed a tight end reception of at least 14 yards in eight of nine games this year.
Bet by: Larky
Russell Wilson OVER 210.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Buffalo Bills have allowed their opponent to throw for at least 237 yards in five of their past six games. The Bills' defense is struggling with injuries right now. The past three quarterbacks have all thrown for at least 237 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo. The Denver Broncos are seven-point underdogs, so they’ll need to throw in this game. The Bills run defense started off the season poorly, but the past four games, it has held running backs to under four yards per carry in each contest. This is an incredibly low number, and I expected it to open closer to 220.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky
Marquise Brown OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Marquise Brown is averaging nine targets and 99 air yards per game over the past eight games. He’s been under 50 yards each of his past four games, but that’s with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback. In Week 10 he gets Kyler Murray. Brown still had at least seven targets in each of those past four games. Think of this as a regression play, combined with a quarterback upgrade. A wide receiver has topped this number against the Atlanta Falcons in each of the past seven weeks.
Bet by: Larky
Amari Cooper Longest Reception OVER 20.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Amari Cooper is 5-3 on this line but 3-1 in full games with Watson this season, with the one loss being exactly 20 yards. He’s seeing an average depth of target of 17 yards with Deshaun Watson at quarterback compared to a 13-yard ADOT with PJ Walker. The Baltimore Ravens have been solid against the deep pass, but they’ve allowed still allowed eight wide receivers to top this through eight games. Part of why they’re so successful at stopping passes over the top is they play the eighth-highest rate of Cover 4. But Cooper has a 27 percent target rate against Cover 4 compared to 23 percent regularly with Watson. Cooper is averaging 25 yards per reception on the five receptions he has against Cover 4 with Watson at quarterback.
Bet by: Wolby
Trey Palmer Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Trey Palmer is only 4-4 on this line this season, but has hit in three of the last four with his role expanding in the offense. He’s seen his route participation increase every week for the last month, with the exception of last week where he only had 85 percent route participation instead of 87 percent the week prior — which is still good when you consider he was seeing less than half of the teams routes to start the season.
In the last four games, he’s averaging 14 yards per reception, which is more than the 13.5 required for this to cash. Last week, all three of Palmer's receptions were 14-plus yards. Since the year 2000, there have been 5,512 games where a WR had three or more receptions of 14-plus yards.
Fewer than 20 percent of those players failed to record a single catch longer in the following week. This isn’t an 80/20 play like that stat would suggest, since the numbers are skewed towards solid offensive contributors; however, given Palmer's role in the offense, I think he’ll continue to be a solid offensive contributor, and I think this line is a bit too low.
Bet by: Wolby
Austin Ekeler Longest Reception OVER 14.5 Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Austin Ekeler has gone over this in all but one game this season (4-1) with that loss coming against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing the second-fewest yards per reception to the running back position. This shouldn’t come off as a surprise, but he leads all running backs in receptions of 15 or more per game, with one reception per game of 15-plus yards.
He’s playing against the Detroit Lions who are allowing one reception per game of 15-plus to RBs, a number that ranks fifth in the NFL. The Lions are also giving up the second-highest yards per reception to the running back position behind only Chicago. Detroit runs the sixth-highest rate of Cover 4 in the NFL, and Ekeler is averaging 15 yards per reception against Cover 4, a number that ranks third among the 38 RBs with at least 10 receptions this season.
Bet by: Wolby
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