Betting
4/25/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Draft: 11 Futures Bets for Team's First Selections
After looking at teams’ free agency acquisitions, historical draft tendencies and the projected best available players at their selections, I placed 11 futures bets across nine teams in the team first selection market.
The bets are ordered by the confidence, or amount risked I had when placing the selection, with current odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, unless otherwise specified, shown after. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +750 line implies an 11.8 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +750 line, we believe this outcome will happen more often than 11.8 percent. All betting odds will feature implied percentage odds for context.
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2023 NFL Draft Bets
Tier One: Highly Confident - More Than 50 Percent
Philadelphia Eagles: Pick 10
To draft an offensive lineman with their first section (+500, 16.7 percent)
Current odds: (-200, 66.7 percent)
- The sportsbooks now believe the Philadelphia Eagles are more likely to take an offensive lineman with their first selection than any other outcome.
- On a recent The 33rd Team podcast, former Eagles president Joe Banner agreed with the idea Philadelphia will target an offensive lineman.
- Unless the Eagles pursue Georgia’s Jalen Carter (scouting report), I think they take an offensive lineman, with Peter Skoronski (scouting report) as the most likely.
Tier Two: Relatively Confident - Around 50 Percent
Detroit Lions: Pick 6
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+115, 46.5 percent)
Current odds (-130, 56.5 percent)
- After the Jeff Okudah trade, the books hung the stale line of +115 to select a cornerback first, so I bet it before it shifted, an idea explained in Dalton Kates's article on betting the 2023 draft.
- The Detroit Lions are close to a coin flip as to whether they take a cornerback with their first pick, though the market is too certain it is likely to be Devon Witherspoon (scouting report) instead of Christian Gonzalez (scouting report).
- If the Lions do not select a cornerback, Carter and the quarterbacks left on the board seem like plausible selections.
- The recent suspensions of multiple Lions’ players for gambling, including 2022’s first-round pick Jameson Williams, and the Lions’ emphasis on players' character have me expecting them to not want to select Carter.
Atlanta Falcons: Pick 8
To draft a defensive lineman with their first selection (-105, 51.2 percent)
Current odds: (-135, 57.4 percent)
- I placed the defensive lineman/edge rusher bet immediately after the Okudah trade’s announcement, expecting the odds to shift to make the defensive line a more likely selection.
- The Atlanta Falcons' first pick is likely a defensive lineman, Bijan Robinson (scouting report) or an offensive lineman like Skoronski.
- Georgia edge Nolan Smith (scouting report), with the appeal of staying in-state, is the Falcons' most likely pick.
Tier Three: Mildly Confident – Between 30-50 Percent
New York Giants: Pick 25
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+430, 18.9 percent)
Current odds: (+200, 33.3 percent)
- The New York Giants addressed their primary needs of linebacker and playmaker in free agency through the additions of Bobby Okereke and Darren Waller.
- While the Giants are reportedly expected to take a wide receiver with their first selection, cornerback is now priced appropriately at +200.
- Cornerbacks like Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report), Emmanuel Forbes (scouting report), Deonte Banks (scouting report) and Brian Branch (scouting report) should be in play at 25 if on the board.
Cincinnati Bengals: Pick 28
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+1000, 9.1 percent)
Current odds: (+280, 26.3 percent)
- The Cincinnati Bengals' best boundary cornerback, Chidobe Awuzie, is coming off a torn ACL and has an expiring contract.
- Cam Taylor-Britt, a 2022 day-two selection, starts opposite of Awuzie.
- Bengals expert Joe Goodberry believes the cornerbacks in play for the Bengals are: Forbes, Banks, Porter Jr. and Cam Smith (scouting report).
- The odds of +280 to take a defensive back are available at Caesars, but it seems like an appropriate price for the Bengals. They may look to add a tight end, offensive lineman or even defensive lineman in Round 1.
- The Bengals taking a defensive lineman at +1000 is available at FanDuel. Considering the Bengals may release starting defensive tackle B.J. Hill after the 2023 season to save 7.5 million against the cap, this feels like a bit of a mispriced line and should be closer to +700, or 12.5% implied.
New England Patriots: Pick 14
To draft an offensive lineman with their first selection (+200, 33.3 percent)
Current odds: (+300, 25 percent).
- Starting tackles Trent Brown and Riley Reiff have expiring contracts after the 2023 season, and neither is good enough to stop the New England Patriots from selecting a tackle early.
- The Patriots also have needs at cornerback, wide receiver and possibly defensive line, however, at +300, available at FanDuel, I believe that it is worth betting.
- The Patriots should select an offensive lineman with their first pick at around 33 percent of the time, so I would be willing to lightly play the +300 line.
- The Athletic’s Chad Graff believes tackles Broderick Jones (scouting report) and Paris Johnson (scouting report) are in play if the Patriots stay at No. 14.
Las Vegas Raiders: Pick 7
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+380, 20.8 percent)
Current odds: (+175, 36.4 percent)
- It is improbable the Las Vegas Raiders select a quarterback with their first pick, though there is an outside chance they end up with C.J. Stroud (scouting report) or Anthony Richardson (scouting report).
- Cornerback and offensive linemen are the most likely choices in Round 1, with Gonzalez, Witherspoon, and Johnson as the frontrunners.
- The Athletic’s Tashan Reed believes the Raiders will prefer Gonzalez to Witherspoon.
Tier Four: Not Confident – Less Than 25 Percent
Detroit Lions: Pick 6
To draft a quarterback with their first selection (+750, 11.8 percent)
Current odds: (+1000, 9.1 percent)
- During his combine press conference, general manager Brad Holmes stressed their need to add to their quarterback room, and despite a strong contract offer to Teddy Bridgewater looming, so far, they have not made any acquisitions.
- At +1000, I believe the Lions drafting a quarterback with their first pick is worth betting lightly. We do not have concrete sources indicating the Lions plan to target a quarterback early, but it remains a possibility.
Atlanta Falcons: Pick 8
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+200, 33.3 percent)
Current odds: (+550, 15.4 percent).
- We bet on the Atlanta Falcons to select a cornerback bet before the Okudah trade. Right now, the Falcons probably have little intention of taking a cornerback with their first pick.
Seattle Seahawks: Pick 5
To draft a cornerback with their first selection (+850, 10.5 percent)
Current odds: (+600, 14.3 percent)
- In an offseason news conference, John Schneider emphasized the team's approach will focus less on positional need and more on drafting the highest-ranked players.
- While the Seattle Seahawks will likely have both Will Anderson (scouting report) and Tyree Wilson (scouting report) ranked above the cornerbacks, in the unlikely event the top two pass-rushers go off the board in the top four picks, Seattle could prioritize a cornerback over a quarterback at No. 5.
- Opposite Tariq Woolen, the Seahawks do not have a solidified starting outside cornerback, so Gonzalez and Witherspoon could fit.
- Still, at +600, I would not make any wagers in this market.
Tennessee Titans: Pick 11
To draft a wide receiver with their first selection (+600, 14.3 percent)
Current odds: (+1100, 8.3 percent)
- The Tennessee Titans have a plethora of needs and only six picks throughout the draft. Trying to trade back, unless they want to pursue a quarterback, makes sense.
- If the Titans stay at No. 11, offensive linemen like Johnson and Skoronski seem like the most likely selections.
- I do not see the Titans considering any wide receiver at No. 11, despite their lackluster wide receiver room.
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