Analysis

11/1/23

9 min read

2023 Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections: Josh Allen Set For Big Week

By Ben Wolbransky

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Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 8 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.

Write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (QB1), Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals are set to clash in one of the standout games of Week 9. Josh Allen, currently leading the NFL in EPA per play and the fantasy football QB1, is gearing up for a showdown with the highest Vegas total on the schedule. Notably, the Bengals' defense is allowing approximately 10 percent more yards per attempt than the league-average defense.

This advantage makes Allen the only quarterback projected for more than 300 passing yards this week. This matchup bodes well for WR Stefon Diggs, who is projected to finish as the WR1.

Joe Burrow (QB6), Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow finds himself in a similar situation to Allen. In Week 8, we saw Burrow return to form and display the elite quarterback skills he's known for. Finishing as the QB5 in Week 8 and maintaining an average QB5 rank over his past two games, Week 9 presents a crucial test for Burrow. The Cincinnati Bengals boast the second-highest implied team total for the week at 25.75 and are up against a Bills defense that can be described as nothing more than average.

Burrow's resurgence has particularly benefited Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected to rank as the WR6 for the week but also has the potential for WR1 overall performance.

Sam Howell (QB11), Washington Commanders

Sam Howell’s fantasy success is a bit of an enigma. In a week jam-packed with byes, Howell continues to present a reliable streaming option at quarterback. Since Week 4, Howell's fantasy points per game only trail Allen and Jalen Hurts.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb (WR5), Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb entered the season with high expectations, initially projected as a top-five wide receiver. However, after a slow start, he wasn't been projected higher than WR6 until now. A combination of bye weeks and a strong Week 8 performance, where Lamb finished as the overall WR1, elevates him to an elite position. Lamb is the only top-10 WR projected for fewer than 10 targets. 

Beyond his outstanding Week 8, Lamb hasn't been a massive target hog. Nevertheless, his 13.8 yards per reception ranks sixth among all wide receivers with 35-plus receptions, and his 90 receiving yards per game easily places him in the top 10. Lamb found his stride and is likely to maintain a top-five WR status moving forward.

Diontae Johnson (WR16), George Pickens (WR21), Pittsburgh Steelers

The model initially projected these two wide receivers almost equally after Diontae Johnson's return from IR last week. After two weeks of sharing the field, the picture has become clearer. Johnson is undoubtedly Pittsburgh's WR1, boasting a 31 percent target share, resulting in twice as many receptions as George Pickens since his return.

Interestingly, Johnson has only scored one more fantasy point than Pickens in that timeframe. Johnson is a PPR monster, but Pickens is poised to dominate in chunk yardage and touchdowns. Pickens has already scored three touchdowns, which is three more than Johnson has had in the past two years. 

While Johnson is likely to find the end zone sooner or later, Pickens has demonstrated his capability to make big plays. Johnson's target share could somewhat cannibalize fantasy points for both of them. Both are worth starting as mid-low WR2/Flex options.

Cooper Kupp (WR7), Puka Nacua (WR24), Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford's injury makes it tough to project Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as top-12 wide receivers like in the past. Kupp remains an elite fantasy option, though WR7 might be a slightly optimistic projection. He retains a strong hold on the offense's target share and is unquestionably the most relevant player in the system. 

Even Nacua, who has performed as a top-12 WR thus far, makes a case for staying there. Unfortunately, Kupp's presence has a bearing on Nacua's projections, bringing him down to WR24, which could be a bit optimistic given the uncertainty with Brett Rypien at quarterback.

Running Backs

Breece Hall (RB2), New York Jets

My co-host of the 5th Down Fantasy Podcast and fellow contributor at the 33rd Team, Alex Caruso, and I have discussed Breece Hall as a potential league-winning player for several months. Although Hall didn't have a blazing start to the season, which was somewhat expected, his recent performance has been outstanding.

During the past month, he ranks as the per-game RB4, trailing De'Von Achane (third), who played just one game during that period. Notably, Hall's share of 63 percent of the New York Jets' rushing attempts in this timeframe ranks him seventh among running backs. Moreover, he has ascended to third in total yards per game among running backs, averaging 127 yards. Hall is firmly established as an elite fantasy running back, and I would be thrilled to have him on my roster in any league.

Jonathan Taylor (RB5), Zack Moss (RB19), Indianapolis Colts

Projecting this backfield is challenging but in the best way possible. Jonathan Taylor has shown his ability to excel as a bell cow and in a committee. Since Taylor's return, he's been out-touched by Zack Moss, with Moss getting 69 touches to Taylor's 54. Taylor's workload was somewhat limited in his first game back, but since Week 6, he has had only three more touches than Moss. In Week 8, Taylor had just one more touch than Moss.

Despite sharing the backfield, both running backs have managed to perform within the top 15. Taylor takes the 1A role, and his historical usage is a positive sign for his future projections. However, it's worth noting there's no clear indication Moss will be phased out. While Moss's touchdowns could shift to Taylor, both running backs remain viable starting options until we see a change in their roles.

Tony Pollard (RB10), Dallas Cowboys

Projected for more touches than any other running back, it’s frustrating to see Tony Pollard at RB10. While he's received significant volume, Pollard has struggled to replicate his efficiency and production from last season. For those who drafted him as a top-five fantasy running back, the current per-game RB17 ranking is disheartening.

What seems to be lacking is Pollard's explosiveness. He ranks 22nd in yards per rush and 18th in yards per reception. This is a notable drop from his top-three ranking in both categories last season. It's a disappointing development, and there's a legitimate concern the Dallas Cowboys could start involving running backs Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn more.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson (TE2)

The unfortunate ACL tear suffered by Kirk Cousins has created uncertainty about how this offense will operate. However, one thing remains clear: T.J. Hockenson received two targets out of Jaren Hall's four attempts last week, and his utilization in the offense closely mirrored how he was used in Cousins' system. While it's unlikely Hall is the long-term solution for Minnesota, especially after they acquired QB Josh Dobbs, Hall is set to start this week.

Hockenson is expected to be a prime target in the passing game. His 6.75 Air Yards per target ranks 12th among tight ends with at least 20 receptions, making it unlikely Hall will struggle to connect with him. Although he doesn't have significant touchdown potential, Hockenson is positioned just behind Travis Kelce as the best tight-end option for this week.

Trey McBride (TE5)

I discussed Trey McBride's potential in last week's projections piece, and much of that assessment still holds. McBride is a compelling option as the fifth and final consistent tight-end starter who can be relied upon.

However, with Clayton Tune expected to start this week, there's limited data available to make a reliable projection. Even if McBride has a subpar performance this week, I believe it's wise to keep him close, especially with Kyler Murray returning soon.

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Ben Wolbransky

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Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.