Fantasy
12/28/23
6 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Targets, Fades for NFL Week 17
Welcome to the fantasy football finals — at least for most leagues. If you are playing into Week 18, my deepest condolences.
Whether you are here thanks to a knockdown, drag-out match in the semis or are fighting for a portion of your league dues back in the third-place matchup, you should feel a great sense of pride for making it this far. All of your savvy draft day decisions, solid pickups, sharp trades and prescient start-sit calls have gotten you this far.
Continue to trust those instincts and stay abreast of news, injuries and last-minute inactives throughout the week.
Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 17 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.
Players We Love This Week
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (at NYG)
Matthew Stafford has been a sneaky fantasy play since Week 12 in Arizona. He is the overall QB2 in that span and has finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback or better in each of the last five weeks, facing three legitimately good pass defenses (Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints) along the way.
Stafford is in lockstep with his dynamic duo of wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and has boosted breakout running back Kyren Williams’ performance of late. Stafford should be a solid QB1 play this week on the road against the New York Giants, who are mediocre against fantasy quarterbacks.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (vs. MIA)
Zay Flowers bounced back in a big way after a brutal Week 15 where he reeled in just one catch for seven yards. In Week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers, he caught nine of 13 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR14 in half-PPR scoring.
Flowers, who was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, has been a bit boom-or-bust as the Baltimore Ravens' offense has gone through its ups and downs this season. However, his recent success — especially against much better defenses than the Miami Dolphins’ — and the Ravens’ lack of weapons due to injuries should inspire enough confidence for a WR2 play. The Dolphins are middle-of-the-pack against the pass and were just lit up by Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas Eve.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers (at JAC)
The appearance of any Carolina Panthers player on the “love” side of this column seems borderline taboo. However, Chuba Hubbard has managed to have a nice, late season breakout amid this dumpster fire of an offense. He performed well last week against the Green Bay Packers — he rushed 16 times for 43 yards and a touchdown and tacked on a catch for eight yards.
Hubbard has finished as a top 25 running back or better in half-PPR in six consecutive week — and seven times since the Panthers’ Week 7 bye. He is the overall RB10 since Week 12 and should be regarded as a trustworthy RB2 this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose defense is average against fantasy running backs. He can also be trusted moving forward in light of his significant workload in an offense that otherwise sparks little joy.
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals (at PHI)
Trey McBride is in the middle of a quiet, Year 2 breakout campaign. Since Week 8, McBride is TE5 in half-PPR and has benefited significantly from the return of Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who made his season debut in Week 10. McBride broke a recent three-game streak of double-digit fantasy points last week on the road against the Chicago Bears when he ended up with six catches for 31 yards.
McBride should bounce back nicely this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defense has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and is 22nd against fantasy tight ends this year. He is a TE1 play for Week 17, especially with the blue-chip elite options dwindling at an already lean position.
Players We Hate This Week
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (at BAL)
Tua Tagovailoa put up anemic numbers — again — in spite of the Dolphins’ 22-20 win over the Cowboys. He completed 24 of 37 attempts for 293 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, and he was the fantasy QB22 for the week.
Over the last five weeks, Tagovailoa has only finished as a QB1 or better or logged a multi-touchdown game once, back in Week 13 against a horrendous Washington Commanders’ pass defense. He is likely to continue this streak into the fantasy finals on the road against the Ravens, who just shut down the 49ers and forced four interceptions against quarterback Brock Purdy. Tagovailoa is a low-upside QB1 with serious bust potential for Week 17 in this brutal matchup.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets (at CLE)
Garrett Wilson was good, not great as the New York Jets eked out a 30-28 win against a porous Commanders secondary. He caught nine of 15 targets for 76 yards and was the WR30 in half-PPR scoring.
Wilson now faces a defense on the complete opposite end of the spectrum on the road and on a short week. On Thursday, the Jets face the Browns, whose defense is allowing an NFL-low 158.9 receiving yards per game and that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Wilson is a boom-or-bust WR2/3 option who managers should feel shaky about starting in their do-or-die showdowns.
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (at MIN)
Aaron Jones shined in Week 16 against the Panthers. He rushed 21 times for a season-high 127 yards and caught a pass for eight yards, finishing as the RB16 in half-PPR and a top 24 back for the second week since returning from injury.
Jones has been inconsistent all season (even when on the field), which could perhaps be more of a symptom of the Packers’ erratic offense. He should give managers pause this week — on the road and in prime time against the Minnesota Vikings, whose typically stingy defense was just lit up by Jahmyr Gibbs.
Still, Minnesota remains a top nine defense against fantasy running backs. Jones tallied 46 all-purpose yards on 11 touches the last time these two teams met back in Week 8 and was the RB35. He is a mid- to low-end RB2 in this suboptimal away matchup.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (vs. NE)
Dalton Kincaid had a four-week midseason breakout stretch that teased the fantasy community into believing he could be this year’s late-round tight end sleeper. Unfortunately, that was Sam LaPorta, and Kincaid has since fallen off a cliff. Since the Buffalo Bills’ Week 13 bye, Kincaid has finished as the TE29, TE80 and TE52 in half-PPR. He was a complete non-factor last week and caught just one pass for seven yards as the Bills eked out a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, which came after a Week 15 goose egg against the Cowboys.
Kincaid is not a trustworthy starter with your championships on the line — especially this week against the New England Patriots, who rank No. 1 against fantasy tight ends. He played well against the Patriots last time, but his recent struggles are enough to put him on thin ice in a winner-takes-all week.
