Fantasy
12/15/23
5 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 15 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
GAME ENVIRONMENT DASHBOARD
QUARTERBACKS
The market has the top three quarterbacks correct, draft them as such: Always stack Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy while usually stacking Josh Allen.
After that trio, decisions are to be made.
Patrick Mahomes, QB4, for whatever reason, is not producing fantasy ceilings, and it’s time to ignore the shiny name for now. The New England Patriots rank in the top five against quarterbacks, while the Kansas City Chiefs have a very modest team total. Additionally, without Travis Kelce rolling, the Chiefs offense has been very spread out, meaning you need to get more correct even if Mahomes crushes. Fade the best quarterback in the league, easy.
Matthew Stafford, QB5, is playing elite football, and the matchup could not be better. The Washington Commanders’ defense is downright awful, ranking last against QBs and second to last against WRs. The offense is very condensed, with clear stacking pieces. Stafford is second in projected passing yards on the slate, barely behind Prescott. Look for Stafford to dice up this secondary.
Sam Howell, QB9, is by far the best rarely-drafted option. He is third in implied passing yards, only one yard behind Stafford. The Los Angeles Rams are likely to push the pace here, and the Commanders have no issue throwing the ball at an absurd rate, especially with Brian Robinson Jr. ruled out. The only red flag is that we are throwing darts trying to stack Howell.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams rightfully lead off a deep running back slate in their own tiers. Both are total workhorse running backs with excellent matchups; draft them when you can.
Bijan Robinson, RB3, is an interesting analysis. If you don’t look at the numbers, he’s an improving, explosive run-funnel defense. If you look at the numbers, he’s the 10th most likely running back to score and also tenth in total projected yards. I’m wary of this ADP.
Aaron Jones, RB16, looks likely to return from injury this week, while AJ Dillon is trending towards being out with a broken thumb. If this is the case, the Green Bay Packers will not have much choice but to give Jones heavy volume. Jones’ touchdown likelihood is in a large group tied for third on the slate, with all players drafted higher. There are no yardage props out due to the injury uncertainties, but in the past, Jones has had respectable yardage projections of around 80 yards. In the case Jones misses this week, feel comfortable swapping onto Ezekiel Elliott, Chuba Hubbard or Antonio Gibson.
Wide Receivers
The Miami Dolphins' injury situation is quite frustrating, with little clarity as of Friday afternoon. If Tyreek Hill plays, he’s the WR1. If he doesn’t, the entire offense takes a hit, and any team who drafted him in the top 10 is likely dead. If De’Von Achane plays, he and Raheem Mostert are mediocre selections. If Achane doesn’t suit up, Mostert is a great play. Luckily, Achane goes late enough to feel okay taking the risk. Jaylen Waddle as WR11 has been unspectacular but draftable regardless of circumstances.
Jayden Reed, WR14, is surprisingly getting no respect from the field here. Reed has been steadily improving and has become the focal point of this offense with manufactured touches. The matchup is elite — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense and bottom three at defending against it. Christian Watson won’t play, and they also may be missing a combination of their running backs. Sportsbooks set Reed’s touchdown odds at an absurd +155, putting him tied with Mike Evans for seventh in touchdown likelihood. Get your Reed shares before ADP catches up.
Chris Olave, WR15, is currently questionable but projects well against a very vulnerable New York Giants defense. Given the very late ADP, there is not much downside on the injury outlook as you can easily swap to a similar ADP player. If Olave doesn’t go, Rashid Shaheed is an interesting swap as the only healthy NFL-caliber wide receiver on the roster. He’s been great when called upon this year.
Tight EndS
The top of the tight end market is efficient with legit high-ceiling playmakers. Kelce is in a tier of his own, as is George Kittle. I also have Jake Ferguson by himself as opposed to ADP, a bit ahead of Trey McBride and David Njoku due to touchdown equity. After Njoku, it starts to get interesting.
Dalton Kincaid, TE6, is likely being over-drafted due to his team and the game environment. We haven’t seen a weekly ceiling from him yet, as he’s mostly been used as a check-down resource. Sportsbooks agree, setting his touchdown prop at +330, good for 10th among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee, TE15, is good to go on Sunday with his injury. Sportsbooks rank him as the fifth most likely tight end on the slate to score. On top of that, his touchdown points will come right out of the pocket of three always-drafted Rams; Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Darren Waller’s 21-day practice window off IR has been opened. There are no betting odds out yet for his production, but his status is certainly something to monitor. If he is good to go, this is a massive opportunity to draft a high-ceiling tight end at very low ownership at TE12.
