Fantasy
12/1/23
5 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 13 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
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Quarterbacks
There is a pretty clear top tier with Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, who both have elite touchdown ceilings. Hurts has been running hot on the ground, and can be played unstacked with a San Francisco 49er included to push the game script. With Tagovailoa, I want at least one other Miami Dolphin.
After excellent stacking options in C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy, the options level off pretty evenly. There is an edge to be had by playing some of the lesser-drafted guys who project similarly to the QB5-6 range.
Kyler Murray is getting back into form and has not been afraid to run after coming back from his ACL injury. His high variance, downfield attack is exactly what we want against a defense that has struggled to cover wide receivers. Monitor the injury situation to his skill players though, as a bunch are questionable and we want talent around Murray.
On the flip side, Kenny Pickett has been allergic to touchdowns in his career, but this is probably the best spot he’s ever been in. There is no more Matt Canada (we saw what they did last week), and he’s playing against arguably the worst defense in the league.
Sam Howell has been throwing the ball at an insane rate as the Washington Commanders have become one of the league's most pass-happy teams. The Miami Dolphins will likely force this to another extreme. Howell paired with a Commander and a Dolphin makes a lot of sense.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey reigns supreme again due to his unique combination of elite usage, offense and touchdown equity. He is in a tier of his own. After McCaffrey, there is a massive tier of guys with upside but with question marks. The ADP greatly reflects this, as McCaffrey is the only RB in the first two rounds.
Austin Ekeler stands out as overvalued, likely due to his name and past production. Ekeler has not passed the eye test since his injury, and the offense has been a mess. Sportsbooks agree, setting his touchdown and yardage prop at pedestrian numbers, lower than players going after Ekeler.
Zack Moss grades out as RB2 in my Sportsbook-influenced model. This checks out with Moss’ 19.4 fantasy point average as the lead back. He has the second-highest projected total yards, behind only McCaffrey.
De'Von Achane is the highest variance player on the slate, assuming he plays. He could return to form with his insane efficiency in an elite offense, or he could be hampered by injuries and not do much. This is exactly the type of player we want to draft in top-heavy tournaments.
To put icing on the cake, if he doesn’t play, there are a ton of viable running backs to swap to, with my favorites being Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, and David Montgomery.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown has quieted down a lot over the past three weeks, and projections have adjusted. He faces a stout 49ers defense with an average team point total (as seen above). Tread lightly on Brown, as his yardage prop is ten or more yards lower than Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown and 30 yards lower than Tyreek Hill. He’s also less likely to score than the three aforementioned players.
Michael Pittman is undervalued by a few spots, given he is tied for fourth in projected yards. His touchdown equity is middle of the pack, and he has run cold on touchdowns this year, but the Tennessee Titans, while strong against the run, have struggled to cover wide receivers.
Nico Collins continues to put up numbers when healthy. He’s been overshadowed by the excitement of Tank Dell, but Collins has out-targeted Dell in back-to-back weeks. Both are great options, but Collins is being selected multiple rounds after Dell.
Tight Ends
The tight end landscape is pretty efficient and un-fun this week without a deep player pool. Anyone past TE10, Cade Otton, is too much of a dart throw.
Pat Freiermuth is a very interesting dilemma. On one hand, the projections do not favor him – he projects for fewer yards and touchdown equity than any tight end in the top eight. On the other hand, we saw the new-look Steelers offense throw the ball to him down the middle of the field frequently — something that was not happening before last week. There might be something here that the spreadsheets are unable to capture.
David Njoku has seen an insane uptick in usage lately, averaging 11 targets in the past three games and over nine in the past six. With Joe Flacco under center, the checkdowns are likely to continue. The Los Angeles Rams also happen to be bottom five in the league against tight ends.
After that, Logan Thomas, Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, and Otton are viable selections where ties should be broken by correlation and leverage. These players are a significant tier below the top five options and should not be prioritized.
