Analysis
6/19/23
5 min read
Why Betting on QB Kenny Pickett Offers Incredible Value in 2023
This is not an article I ever expected to write because I’ve been critical of Kenny Pickett as a player since his college days. However, there will always be an equilibrium point in the market where I’m forced to take a rosy stance on a player relative to cost.
Before diving into how I’m betting on him in the season-long props market and in fantasy football, we should discuss his flaws, which originally made me skeptical about his long-term viability.
Pickett’s Flawed Profile
Pickett was a five-year player at Pittsburgh who had 13 or fewer passing touchdowns in his first four college seasons. He didn't break out until Year 5 when he was 23 years old. Pickett rarely faced pressure despite having one of the highest average time-to-throw rates in college football. He was also blessed that season with a top target in Jordan Addison, whom the Minnesota Vikings selected in Round 1 (23rd overall) of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Pickett lacks early career production and efficiency through the air, and he isn’t a difference-making runner, topping out at 241 yards rushing in 2021. The Pittsburgh Steelers selected him No. 20 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, as quarterback-needy teams like the Houston Texans (twice), Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks (this was pre-Geno Smith breakout), Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions (twice) and New Orleans Saints (twice) all passed over him.
Pickett wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie. Eight of his 12 rookie-year starts resulted in fewer than 200 yards passing. While his offensive line was shaky, he had three viable targets in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, which gave him an above-average situation for a rookie NFL quarterback.
Pickett’s Year 2 Outlook
Improved Offensive Line
Moving from left to right, the Steelers drafted left tackle Broderick Jones at No. 14 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and signed long-time Philadelphia Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo to a three-year deal. He’s been one of the more consistent guards since his debut in 2016. Center Mason Cole is coming off his best season and is still just 27.
Sports Info Solutions graded right guard James Daniels as the sixth-best offensive guard in 2022. Right tackle remains a weak point, but the Steelers should have at least a league-average offensive line in 2023 rather than the bottom-10 unit they rolled out in 2022.
Additionally, they drafted tight end Darnell Washington, a monstrous physical specimen, in the third round. He profiles as one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL. Think of him as a borderline sixth offensive lineman.
Receiving Core
Johnson and Pickens form one of the NFL’s better wide receiver duos. Johnson has at least 144 targets each of the past three seasons, and Pickens just reeled in 52 catches for 801 yards as a rookie.
Allen Robinson is a wild card, but there’s a chance he has something left in the tank. Freiermuth has at least 60 catches in each of his first two seasons, an impressive feat for a tight end. Pickett possesses an above-average receiving unit around him.
Running Back Group
Former first-round pick Najee Harris took a step back in Year 2, partially explained by shaky offensive line play and a Lisfranc injury suffered during the preseason. Backup Jaylen Warren impressed as a rookie and looks like one of the NFL’s better breather backs — grading out 20th in SIS’ total points metric out of 80 qualified backs.
Defenses will need to respect what should be a much-improved run game in 2023, which will likely provide favorable ripple effects for Pickett.
Season-Long Yards Passing Prop
On FanDuel Sportsbook, Pickett’s season-long yards passing prop is set at 3,150.5 yards, and we recommend taking the over. If we assume he plays 16 of 17 games, he needs just 197 yards passing per game to reach that mark. If he plays 15 games, that is still only 210 yards per game.
Pickett already averaged 208 yards passing per game as a rookie starter — removing the one game where he was concussed and left after one snap. Pickett can miss multiple games due to injury and still hit the over on his season-long yards passing prop.
Quarterbacks usually improve in their second season, and his supporting cast is better than last year. He was a first-round pick last year, which provides job security. Last season, he outplayed Mitchell Trubisky, who is the Steelers’ backup again. For additional context, DraftKings Sportsbook has Pickett listed at the higher number of 3300.5 yards.
>>READ: Why Line Shopping Is a Must for Sports Bettors
Fantasy Football ADP
Pickett goes as Pick 170 in Underdog Fantasy's best ball drafts. This is a very soft ADP, given he’s fairly mobile with job security and a solid supporting cast. You can view our Underdog best ball rankings here.
While he should remain on waivers in traditional one-quarterback fantasy leagues, he’s a great target in Superflex or two-quarterback formats. Drafting Pickett allows you to lock in solid production in a spot where many of the other options have weaker overall profiles.
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