Betting
6/16/23
4 min read
Why Line Shopping Is Valuable in Sports Betting
Serious sports bettors grind several micro edges so that their bets come with as much value as possible. Line shopping is one of the most important ways to find value as a sports bettor. Let’s examine what that means and how it can help you make more profitable bets.
What is Line Shopping?
Line shopping is the process of checking lines and prices at multiple sportsbooks to make the “best” bet.
Let’s say you want to bet on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. Sportsbook A has the Cowboys listed at +1200, while Sportsbook B has Dallas listed at +1600. You want to take the +1600 offering at Sportsbook B because you’ll make more money if it wins. That’s line shopping.
Line Shopping in Futures Betting
Let’s use the Offensive Player of the Year market to provide a few examples of why line shopping is important.
Last year, Justin Jefferson opened between +2500 and +4000. The +4000 option was only available at one sportsbook. Reynolds took that bet but was limited by that sportsbook to a $7.50 wager, but he wanted to get more than $7.50 on Jefferson.
We independently bet on Jefferson at +3000 to win the Offensive Player of the Year last season. Months later, just before opening day, Jefferson was down to +1000.
If we could have bet our desired amount on Jefferson at +4000, we would have done and called it a day. Since that wasn’t an option, we both took Jefferson at the next best available price, which was +3000. Since Jefferson won, for every $100 wager we took at +3000, we would have made $500 less at the next best available line, which was +2500.
If we waited until just before the season to make our bets at +1000, we would have made $2,000 less for every $100 wager.
Those types of margins can be the difference between a profitable year in futures markets and a losing one.
Line Shopping In Player Prop Betting
The easiest way to profit while betting on sports is to ensure any bet comes at the best possible number. That is essential for in-season betting, as there is a much shorter window to make these wagers than there is in futures markets during the offseason.
Shopping around various sportsbooks in weekly player props, looking to bet an over at the lowest number or an under at the highest number, will increase a bet’s expected value. If you’re unfamiliar with expected value, check out our sports betting glossary.
If looking at receiving yards numbers for a pass-catching running back like Austin Ekeler, the difference between five receiving yards (34.5 and 39.5, for example) could cause a range of five to 20 percent gain in expected value.
Based on Ekeler’s 2021 and 2022 game totals in the regular season, 15 percent of his games had between 35 and 39 receiving yards. Put simply, getting the best lines will create more wins in player prop markets long term.
Line Shopping in Against the Spread Betting
The same principles apply when betting against the spread (ATS) with some alterations. First, spread markets are far more efficient than player prop markets.
A game’s spread is efficient enough on Sunday, hours before kickoff. It’s generally sound advice not to bet on it if one has other options, like the less-efficient player prop market.
If betting ATS, the idea all points are not created equal also comes into play. NFL points come in bunches, with field goals (always three points) and touchdowns (often seven points) occurring the most frequently. As such, games are far more likely to have teams winning by four and three points compared to two points.
There’s a big difference between betting a favorite at -2.5 and -3.5, as a three-point victory is a winning bet at -2.5 and a loser at -3.5.
Ultimately, line shopping will create more winning bets in the long run, regardless of the type of bet you're making.
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