Texans Rookie WR Tank Dell Is a Fantasy Football Star

Nov 19, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) signals a first down after a play during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans rookie WR Tank Dell had another massive fantasy performance in Week 11. He had eight receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown - totaling 28.9 PPR fantasy points.

We’re putting his elite rookie season into historical context before discussing how to value him for the rest of the fantasy season.

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Historical Context for Dell's Start

This section will only look at the first nine games of a player’s rookie season, as Dell has played in nine games.

When we look at the most receiving yards through a player’s first nine games (since 2013), Dell ranks seventh with 659 yards. The surrounding company is impressive. Overall, Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin are the only veterans in this top 20 who did not have productive fantasy careers.

Rank	Player	Year	Targets	Receptions	Receiving Yards
1	Ja'Marr Chase	2021	73	44	835
2	Odell Beckham	2014	82	59	829
3	Puka Nacua	2023	96	64	827
4	Mike Evans	2014	71	46	794
5	Justin Jefferson	2020	54	42	762
6	Amari Cooper	2015	81	50	732
7	Tank Dell	2023	67	42	659
8	Chris Olave	2022	77	46	658
9	Stefon Diggs	2015	66	42	626
10	Sammy Watkins	2014	77	42	617
11	Keenan Allen	2013	59	41	613
12	Michael Thomas	2016	69	51	613
13	Tee Higgins	2020	61	40	603
14	CeeDee Lamb	2020	68	44	595
15	Kelvin Benjamin	2014	78	40	589
16	Terry McLaurin	2019	56	35	566
17	Jerry Jeudy	2020	69	34	552
18	Brandon Aiyuk	2020	65	40	541
19	DeAndre Hopkins	2013	59	37	539
20	DeVonta Smith	2021	62	38	537

We want spike week potential for fantasy football, where players can individually win our matchup. Dell has four games with at least 10 targets through his first nine games. Since 2013, only Puka Nacua (five) has more. Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr. and Watkins are the only other players with four.

Turning to receiving yards, Dell has three games now with at least 100 yards. Only Justin Jefferson, Beckham Jr. and Nacua are ahead of him (each had four). Only five other receivers matched Dell’s three 100-yard performances through nine rookie games since 2013.

Translating this spike potential to fantasy points, Dell has four games with at least 20 fantasy points. Only three other players have reached that mark since 2013 (Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Beckham Jr.).

Dell has had an elite start to his rookie season with raw yardage and spike week output.

Rest of Season Fantasy Value

Dell is averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game, 10th among all receivers this year (minimum six games played).

My expected fantasy points model looks at a player’s usage to determine how many fantasy points he should have, and Dell ranks 19th among receivers by that process.

While he’s overperforming, playing with one of the best quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud should allow him to continue producing above expectations due to the Texans' offensive environment.

During the offseason, I wrote about rookie wide receivers and how their production is back-loaded during their rookie season. Dell could increase his fantasy output during the final six weeks of the 2023 fantasy season.

Fantasy managers should value Dell as a high-end fantasy WR2 with a low-end fantasy WR1 upside. Think of him like Brandon Aiyuk or Chris Olave for the rest of the season.

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