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Super Bowl LVII DFS Showdown Slate Strategy, Picks

The Super Bowl is almost here, and the 2022-23 DFS season is coming to a quick close.

The two best offensive teams in the NFL are matched up in this year's Super Bowl; in the regular season, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs tied for the league lead in points per game (28.7) and were two of the top three teams in yards per game.


The Eagles have the superior defense metrically, but they haven’t faced an offense with the Chiefs' combination of quality quarterback play and coaching. Kansas City's defense is outmatched individually, but with Chris Jones playing exceptionally well, the Chiefs can make enough plays to make it difficult on the Eagles. This Super Bowl is between the best teams in the NFL and should be close.

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If you are here for the coverage data, you can find the full breakdown here.

Vegas Line: Eagles -1.5
Over/Under: 51

Showdown Strategy

Showdown slates are simplistic in strategy. Pick a game script you want your lineup to mirror and a score that goes along with it. In this Super Bowl, I am taking the over, with the Chiefs winning in a close game, 35-31. In this scenario, five touchdowns are available for Kansas City, and four touchdowns with a field goal are available for Philadelphia. With a small number of lineups, I will eliminate the defenses from my player pool and focus on how the two teams get to these numbers. 

Chiefs Offense

The Chiefs will focus on getting the ball out quickly and build methodical drives against the Eagles' defense. They don’t have a single wide receiver on the injury report; however, if Justin Watson is active for this game, I will be concerned for Kadarius Toney's health, and look to Skyy Moore as a way to get unique. On the route tree that hurt the Eagles with CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin, Moore averaged more than 3.5 yards per route run.

The Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL at defending slot tight ends, but one of the worst at defending in-line tight ends. Travis Kelce lines up in the slot more often than not, leaving Noah Gray as my other cheap player in the Chiefs offense to have an impact in this showdown slate. The Eagles don’t allow plays on the outside to happen for wide receivers, so I anticipate a game where we see the slot wide receiver and the in-line tight end being the chain movers. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was activated from injured reserve earlier in the week, has been hurt heading into the playoffs in all three of his NFL seasons only to be activated. In each of his four career postseason games, he has had no fewer than six carries. I am anticipating him to get run, but the player I think it hurts is Jerick McKinnon. Isiah Pacheco has already seen plenty of touches despite his snap count, and in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, he showed ability as a safety blanket in the passing game.


Eagles Offense

Jalen Hurts had 59 passing attempts and 26 rushing attempts on 88 plays when trailing this season. That means on 30% of the plays the Eagles have trailed, Hurts has run the ball. He is the player I can’t build my lineups without because of how he is utilized and because I believe the Chiefs will stop Philadelphia's running game. That puts my focus on pass-catching options A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

The Chiefs have given up plenty of passing touchdowns this season, and all three players are in plus matchups. The Chiefs like press teams at the line of scrimmage, and Brown has destroyed that all season. (The coverage article details how the Chiefs like to play and how the Eagles have attacked it all season.)

I am looking to avoid the Eagles' rushing game because I don’t think they will be in a game script to get it done. In the situations where Philadelphia is winning on the ground, I don’t believe the Chiefs are capable of winning, and my game script focuses on big plays coming through the air. I think Hurts will lead the Eagles in carries, and they should come by scrambling away from the Chiefs' defensive pressure.

Multiplier Pool

QB Jalen Hurts
QB Patrick Mahomes
TE Travis Kelce
WR A.J. Brown
WR DeVonta Smith

Flex Pool

RB Isiah Pacheco
TE Dallas Goedert
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR Kadarius Toney
K Jake Elliott
K Harrison Butker
WR Skyy Moore
TE Noah Gray
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

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