Analysis

Under-the-Radar NFL Players Who Could Get Traded This Offseason

The first wave of free agency has come and gone. Some teams spent big, while others sat and waited for things to clear up before jumping into the fray.

Of course, the other avenue to add players is via trade, and we’ve seen players like Jalen Ramsey, Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks, Chuck Clark and Elijah Moore dealt already.

The annual league meetings are this week in Phoenix, and all owners, general managers and head coaches are expected to attend.

While we wait for some long-awaited trades to be finalized (Aaron Rodgers and DeAndre Hopkins), there are other players who could be in trade discussions as teams continue to construct their rosters. When decision-makers meet in person like they will this week, the conversations could go many different places.

Players Who Could Be Traded

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

The Denver Broncos have been active in the wide receiver free-agent market, pursuing Allen Lazard and Adam Thielen, which makes you wonder what they think about their current players at the position. Denver has Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler on the roster, but keep in mind the Broncos paid Sutton (four years, $60.8 million) and Patrick (three years, $34.5 million) last year, and they got those deals done before the receiver market went haywire with massive contracts.

The Broncos have to decide on Jeudy’s fifth-year option by May 1, and it’s worth $12,987,000 fully guaranteed. The price to acquire Jeudy is high right now, but teams are keeping a close eye on him if the price is reduced. Keep in mind the Broncos don’t have a first- or second-round pick in this year’s draft, so they could use some capital there.

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill is entering the final year of his contract and has no guaranteed money left on his deal. New Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon has made a bunch of transactions since taking over, moving on from veterans like Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, Bud Dupree, Zach Cunningham and Robert Woods. The Titans could move forward with one more year of Tannehill, but they have given no indication he’s their guy for next season. Tennessee has quietly been doing its work on this year’s rookie quarterback class, so we’ll see if the team dabbles in any trade to get one.

WR Cedrick Wilson

The Miami Dolphins signed Cedrick Wilson to a three-year, $22 million deal a year ago, but they did that contract before knowing Tyreek Hill was available for trade. Once Hill entered the picture, Wilson had no fit on the roster. He had just 12 receptions for 136 yards on the season, and the Dolphins would be open to making a move if they could find a trade partner. Miami also added Braxton Berrios in free agency. Wilson had 602 yards and six touchdowns in 2021 with Dallas, and he’s just 27 years old.

Vikings Edge Za’Darius Smith

Za’Darius Smith tweeted a goodbye to the Minnesota Vikings a few days before free agency began, which made people think he was released. We found out later he wasn’t and had asked the Vikings to cut him, but they rebuffed that request.

Smith made the Pro Bowl in his first season with Minnesota and had 44 tackles, 10 sacks, 24 quarterback hits and a forced fumble in 16 games. The Vikings did add Marcus Davenport in free agency, so that could make Smith expendable, but the situation as of now remains unresolved.

Bengals OT Jonah Williams

The Cincinnati Bengals surprisingly added Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency once they realized they could get him at a good value. Brown has made it clear he only wants to play left tackle, which leaves Jonah Williams in an awkward spot. The former first-round pick is in the final year of his contract, and the team would like for him to flip to the right side. But Williams knows the importance of proving himself on the left side and the financial difference it makes to be there.

The Bengals have a front office that won’t just move a player because he wants out (as we’ve seen recently with Jessie Bates III and famously with Carson Palmer). But Williams would prefer to stay on the left side, and his agent has requested a trade. We’ll see if the Bengals oblige.

>> READ: Williams Trade Conversations Heating Up

Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a healthy scratch for the Super Bowl after the emergence of seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco. The former first-round pick out of LSU has one year remaining on his contract, and he could be a low-risk, high-reward trade candidate. It’s worth noting there are some big-name running backs with big price tags who have also been floated in trades, including the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler, the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook, the Bengals’ Joe Mixon and the Giants’ Saquon Barkley. But the chances of a team giving up significant draft capital plus paying a big contract to a running back seems unlikely.

Titans S Kevin Byard

As ESPN reported last week, the Titans recently approached Kevin Byard about taking a pay cut, and he told the team he wouldn’t. A third-round pick in 2016, Byard has made two All-Pro teams and has not missed a game in his career. He’s currently set to make $13.6 million in 2023 and is also signed for $13.6 million next season, which is the final year of his contract. It seems to be a stand-off between the two sides, and it’s worth monitoring if a team makes a tempting offer.

49ers QB Trey Lance

The San Francisco 49ers love what they saw out of Brock Purdy last season, and there are plenty of people around the league who think he is 100 percent their starting quarterback once fully healthy. But Purdy’s elbow injury was a serious one. His surgery was delayed until early March because of swelling, and it’s unclear exactly when he will be healthy enough to return to action. The 49ers believe it’s going to be a six-month recovery, which would be right around the season opener.

San Francisco signed Sam Darnold in free agency to a one-year, $4.5 million deal that could be worth as much as $11 million with incentives. Some have wondered what that means for Trey Lance, who is nearing a full recovery from a broken ankle suffered in Week 2 last season. For now, it’s all speculation, but there are people who don’t think Darnold signed there to eventually be QB3 on the roster.

Other Names to Watch

Betting

Super Bowl LVII: Ultimate Guide to Prop Betting, Office Pool Picks

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl Squares Analysis

  • 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
  • 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
  • 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
  • 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid

 

Game/Team Props

Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)

  • The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
  • Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
  • Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
  • However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.

Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)

  • The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
  • Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.

Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)

  • The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
  • This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
  • Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
  • Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.

 

First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)

  • Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by a historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
  • Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
  • The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
  • Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.

Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650

  • Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
  • They are also the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
  • This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.

Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving

 

First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)

  • Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
  • In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
  • A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
  • Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.

First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)

  • This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
  • However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
  • With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
  • How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
  • Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.

First Touchdown Scorer

  • Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
  • Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
  • Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
  • Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
  • But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
  • With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
  • Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.

Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)

  • Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
  • But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
  • Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
  • Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.

 

Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)

  • The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
  • Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
  • In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
  • In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
  • Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.

First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat

  • Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
  • Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
  • But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
  • The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
  • Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
  • Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
  • Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
  • Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
  • Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
  • Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
  • If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
  • There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.

 

Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)

  • Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
  • They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
  • In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
  • It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.

Novelty Props

Gatorade Color

  • Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
  • If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
  • If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
  • Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.

 

National Anthem Length

  • The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
  • Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
  • Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.

Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit

  • In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
  • All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
  • “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
  • Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
  • However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
  • But Larky and Reynolds agree black is the color of choice.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

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