Betting

Super Bowl LVII Betting: Evaluating Which Eagles, Chiefs Players Can Win MVP

In the first installment of our two-part Super Bowl MVP series, we took a deep dive into the history of the Super Bowl MVP. We did that so we can make more informed bets. Now, we’re going to analyze more than two dozen players with a path to winning this year’s Super Bowl MVP. The lines provided in this column come from BetMGM. If you’re considering a Super Bowl MVP wager, make sure you line shop at multiple sportsbooks for the best odds and promotions.

Quarterbacks

If you’re considering a bet on a quarterback, 31 (~55%) quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP. The most common paths to a quarterback winning Super Bowl MVP are either high-end production or a late, game-winning drive.

Jalen Hurts +110

Can a dual-threat quarterback with a loaded supporting cast like Jalen Hurts win Super Bowl MVP? He sure can. Should we bet on him to do so at +110 odds? Not only do you have to essentially pick the winning team with that bet, but as we just discussed, quarterbacks only win this award 55% of the time. I’d rather bet the Eagles’ money line at -125, considering how many of his teammates have a realistic path to a spike game.

Patrick Mahomes +125

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, there’s a high chance Patrick Mahomes is the driving force behind that outcome. That said, I’d rather bet the Chiefs’ money line at +110 than I would on betting Mahomes to be the game’s MVP at +125.

>> READ: Mahomes’ Legacy Nearing All-Time Great QBs

 

Running Backs

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII (32). That said, exceeding 100 total yards with two or more scores will put a running back right in the mix for this award.

Miles Sanders +3000

Early in the week, Miles Sanders was available at 50:1 odds on FanDuel, which I viewed as an early misprice. Sanders has a realistic path to 100 yards rushing and multiple scores behind the Eagles’ top-five offensive line. I’m not head over heels at 30:1 odds, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to talk you out of that bet, either.

Isiah Pacheco +5000

Isiah Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier for months, but his usage has been scaled back during his past four games, which includes the playoffs. Pacheco has been a pleasant surprise this season, but he has yet to put up a monster box score. Considering how pass-centric the Chiefs’ offense is, a lot of things would have to bounce Pacheco’s way for him to win the Super Bowl MVP over Mahomes or Travis Kelce.

Jerick McKinnon +5000

Jerick McKinnon went on a touchdown spree down the stretch, scoring nine times during his last six regular season games. Apart from the touchdowns, McKinnon has only breached 100 yards receiving once this season, and he’s only had double-digit carries in two games. McKinnon has only 30 total yards during this year’s playoffs.

Pass-Catchers

If you’re considering a bet on a pass catcher, eight (~14%) wide receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP. No tight end has ever won this award. In most instances where a pass catcher has won this award, they accounted for a large portion of the team’s passing offense while the quarterback has more of an average or worse outing. Further, recent Super Bowls where a wide receiver wins the MVP have gone under their game total.

Travis Kelce +1100

Kelce is the standalone primary pass catcher in Mahomes’ offense, which puts him in a strong position to win the Super Bowl MVP. A tight end has never won this award before, which might actually be an advantage for Kelce if he has a big game and the Chiefs win. That type of outcome offers an opportunity for history to be made, which could be a tiebreaker of sorts for voters. 

A.J. Brown +1400

A.J. Brown breached 100 yards receiving in five games this season while scoring multiple touchdowns in two of those matchups. Brown certainly has the spike game potential to win this award. However, my primary concern with betting on the Eagles’ offense in specific ways is they have four, bordering on five, players capable of massive production.

DeVonta Smith +2500

DeVonta Smith also breached 100 yards receiving in five games this season while scoring multiple touchdowns in one of those matchups. Four of those five 100-yard outputs came in the final six regular season games, including two with Gardner Minshew at the controls. Smith has considerable spike game potential, which is why I’d have his MVP odds closer to Brown’s. If I were an oddsmaker, I’d have Smith’s MVP odds in the 18:1 to 20:1 range.

Dallas Goedert +5000

I don’t see Dallas Goedert as an automatic cross-off, but he’d have to outproduce Hurts, Sanders, Brown and Smith to contend for this award. Considering Goedert only had one 100-yard game this season, he has a narrow path to winning Super Bowl MVP.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling +6600

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is coming off his best game of the season, which also happens to be just the second time he breached 100 yards receiving this year. The Eagles’ cornerbacks are among the best in the league, which reduces my already limited enthusiasm in Valdes-Scantling having another spike game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster +6600

JuJu Smith-Schuster breached 100 yards receiving twice this year, in back-to-back October games. Smith-Schuster is currently on the injury report and hasn’t breached 40 yards receiving in any of his last five games, which includes the playoffs.

 

Quez Watkins +12500

I like Quez Watkins as a player, but he’s seeing limited opportunities, and he’s only exceeded 40 yards receiving in two games this year.

Skyy Moore +15000

A number of Chiefs’ wide receivers are on the injury report, which could lead to another uptick in opportunities for Skyy Moore in the big game. Moore has only exceeded 50 yards receiving in one game this year. He’d need to have the outlier of all outlier performances to win Super Bowl MVP.

Kadarius Toney +15000

When Kadarius Toney is healthy, he’s a difference-making talent that would warrant serious consideration at 150:1 odds. Unfortunately, availability has been a major issue for Toney throughout his two-year career. Toney left the AFC Championship early with an ankle injury.

Pass Rushers

Defensive linemen have won the Super Bowl MVP three out of 56 times. If you’re considering a bet on one of those options, you’re looking for a decisive victory that’s primarily driven by the winning team’s pass rush. You’re then looking for one player to have multiple sacks and, ideally, at least one forced turnover.

Haason Reddick +3000

Haason Reddick ended up being one of the more impactful signings of last year’s free-agent class. Reddick had 16 sacks, five forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries during the regular season. He had multiple sacks with at least one forced fumble or fumble recovery in three different games this year.

If Reddick has that kind of performance during an Eagles win in a low-scoring affair, he would have a real shot to win MVP. Not all major sportsbooks have released Super Bowl MVP odds yet. Reddick is on my short list of options I will bet on if I can get him at a better price.

Chris Jones +5000

If you’re going to bet on a Chiefs defender, Chris Jones has the best chance for a game-derailing performance by a considerable margin. Including the playoffs, Jones had five multi-sack games this season, and he’s one of the premier interior defenders in the league. 

Brandon Graham +8000

Brandon Graham has been a disruptive force for over a decade, but this season he had a career-best 11 sacks with three multi-sack games. If Graham has a big Super Bowl, he also has a compelling story, as he missed most of the 2021 season with an Achilles injury.

Frank Clark +12500

Frank Clark is a good player that would need an outlier performance against an elite offensive line to put himself in the Super Bowl MVP conversation.

George Karlaftis +15000

George Karlaftis had an encouraging rookie year, and he was among my favorite players in last year’s draft class. Karlaftis had six sacks this season, but he’s still searching for his first multi-sack game.

Josh Sweat +15000

Josh Sweat finished the year with 11 sacks and two multi-sack games. He had another three games with 1.5 sacks. Sweat is a pass rusher capable of spike games, which makes him an interesting super longshot option.

Fletcher Cox +20000

Fletcher Cox is at least a borderline Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle. If he has a big game, he’ll at least be in the conversation. 

Linebackers

If you’re considering a bet on a linebacker, only three (~5%) have ever won the Super Bowl MVP. You’re going to need a performance with multiple splash plays (sacks or turnovers) without any offensive player on the winning team having a big game.

Nick Bolton +10000

Nick Bolton is an interesting longshot candidate that finished with the second-most tackles in the league this season. In Week 11 against the Chargers, Bolton had 14 tackles, a forced fumble and an interception. If this contest ends up being low scoring in nature, and Bolton has the kind of box score he had against the Chargers, he could bring home the MVP.

T.J. Edwards +10000

T.J. Edwards has emerged as a rock-solid linebacker for the Eagles during the last two seasons. That said, he didn’t have an interception this season, and he only has two in his four-year career. Betting on Edwards to have a massive spike game against Mahomes’ offense is pretty thin.

Secondary

If you’re considering a bet on a secondary player, only three (~5%) cornerbacks or safeties have ever won the Super Bowl MVP. You’re going to need multiple turnovers, maybe a score, without any offensive player having a game-breaking performance.

Darius Slay +5000

Darius Slay plays the overwhelming majority of his snaps on the perimeter (~91%). The Chiefs don’t have a perimeter receiver that “needs” the ball for their offense to function, which means they could go out of their way to avoid Slay if they wanted. Slay is an exceptional player, but I’d be surprised if he saw enough opportunities to have a monster game.

James Bradberry +15000

James Bradberry also plays the overwhelming majority of his snaps on the perimeter (~90%). Bradberry is one of the better second corners in the league, but he’s more likely to be tested than Slay. Keep in mind Bradberry has just one multi-interception game in his seven-year career.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson +15000

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a versatile player who, in a best-case scenario, has a game with a forced fumble, an interception and close to 10 tackles in his range of outcomes. 

Justin Reid +15000

Justin Reid is a good player, but he only has seven interceptions in his five-year career.

L’Jaruis Sneed +15000

L’Jarius Sneed is currently on the injury report after playing only four snaps in the last week. Sneed has eight interceptions in his three-year career.

Trent McDuffie +25000

Trent McDuffie had a good rookie year, but he has yet to record an interception as a pro.

WATCH: Best Super Player Props

Betting

Between the Lines: Betting Super Bowl LVII

The stage is set – the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LVII, and we’ve already seen some significant line movement. The Chiefs opened up as 1.5-point favorites at FanDuel, but immediately big money started to pour in on Philadelphia. As it sits now, the Eagles are 2-point favorites at most sportsbooks. Here’s a way-too-early” dissection of this contest from a betting perspective. 

Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2), Total: 50

Where I set the line: EVEN, Total: 47.5

On Sunday, we watched two different games play out. One offered more entertainment than the other. Regardless, let’s break down both contests and the effect they have on the betting lines. As you can see, I don’t think either team should be favored, but I understand why the line quickly moved in the Eagles’ favor.

Why the Eagles Should Be Favored

I’ll cover some of the more controversial aspects of this game in the next segment, but I’d be remiss to ignore the many dominant aspects the Eagles displayed on Sunday. Despite Brock Purdy getting injured on the 49ers’ first drive, the Eagles’ defense deserves credit for their performance. They held one of the best offenses in the NFL to only 164 total yards, forced three turnovers, had three sacks and allowed the 49ers to gain only 11 first downs. 

Jalen Hurts had a typical game. He didn’t do anything particularly game-changing, but he was efficient enough (15-25, 121 yards, no TDs, no INTs). He led the Eagles on several key touchdown drives, including an immediate response after the 49ers tied the score in the second quarter.

He also used his legs (11 carries for 39 yards) to gain several integral first downs. Hurts, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell gained 148 yards on the ground behind an assertive offensive line, one that pushed around the 49ers’ front seven for most of the game. The Eagles controlled the time of possession with ease (37:26 to 22:34). 

 

The Eagles are united, confident and full of veteran leaders on the field. They don’t need to play perfectly to beat great teams. They’re insanely talented at every position, and they have tremendous depth on both the offensive and defensive lines. When they’re healthy, they look virtually unstoppable, and it’s no wonder why sharps like their chances against a hobbling Patrick Mahomes

Why the Eagles Being Favored Is Questionable

On paper, the Eagles’ win looked like just another dominant performance by the NFC’s best team. Those who watched the game from start to finish know quite a few things went in the Eagles’ favor from the start of the game. 

  • DeVonta Smith dropped a pass on fourth and 3 on the opening drive. It was called a completion, but if San Francisco would have challenged the play, it would’ve been overturned 
  • On the 49ers’ first drive, Purdy was sacked by All-Pro defensive end Haason Reddick, sending the ball flying into the air and injuring Purdy’s elbow. Josh Johnson, the fourth-string quarterback, a 14-year journeyman quarterback took over. It’s hard to be as impressed by Philadelphia’s defense with Purdy out
  • In the second half, Johnson then got injured, forcing Purdy to come back onto the field and merely act as QB since he couldn’t throw the ball. The 49ers’ offense became all too predictable from that point on
  • On a key touchdown drive in the second quarter where the Eagles went up 14-7, the 49ers gifted the home team with three penalties, one after a crucial third third-and-7 stop in Eagles’ territory 
  • The Eagles ran the ball nine times and passed the ball only four times on a second-quarter drive, calling the Eagles’ trust in Hurts into question. Hurts nearly threw an interception on the same possession
  • The Eagles then went up 21-7 after San Francisco fumbled the ball deep in its own territory on the proceeding possession. The game felt like it was over at that point
  • The 49ers had 11 penalties for 81 yards on Sunday, and many were egregious calls that kept the Eagles’ drives alive. Philadelphia was only penalized four times for 34 yards

Of course, even if the game played out differently and Purdy was healthy, there’s no telling if the result would have been any different. The Eagles are an extremely hard team to beat because of the talent they have on the field, but I still don’t necessarily trust Hurts to lead his offense against a great defense in big moments. We have yet to see that in his career, but the truth is we may not need to see it for Philadelphia to win a title – that’s how elite their roster is. 

 

Why Kansas City Shouldn’t Be Underdogs

Let’s start with Mahomes. Even with a bum ankle, he was everything the Chiefs needed to gain a victory Sunday night. Underhand throws, sideways throws, precision bullets into coverage on one leg – you name it, Mahomes did it in the AFC title game. Inspired by the trash-talking all week from the Bengals’ community (including Cincinnati’s mayor, which was weird), Mahomes looked poised to show that he’s still the best QB in the NFL.

After Sunday’s win, that’s hard to argue. Mahomes went 29 of 43 (67%) for 326 yards, two TDs and no INTs. On the final drive of the game on a worn-out ankle, he found a way to run for a first down. That led to a personal-foul penalty on Bengals’ defensive end Joseph Ossai, putting Kansas City in field goal position to win the game. Harrison Butker nailed the attempt, and Kansas City won, 23-20.

Kansas City’s defense was also stellar throughout the game. Joe Burrow made some electric passes, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had the right game plan. Burrow was sacked five different times, two by All Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, and the Chiefs forced Burrow into two uncharacteristic interceptions. Allowing only 309 total yards, the Chiefs’ defense imposed their will on the Bengals in several key spots, restricting Burrow and company to three different “three and outs” and multiple drives with negative yards. It was one of their best defensive performances of the year, and it came at the perfect time.

The Chiefs have a championship pedigree. Their defense has an uncanny ability to show up and play their best in the postseason, and a motivated Mahomes seems impossible to stop no matter what the in-game circumstances are. The Chiefs’ roster and coaches have a ton of Super Bowl experience, their offensive line was mostly brilliant in protecting Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense is one of the most dynamic in league history. Against an unfamiliar foe they won’t be an easy out, nor do I think they should be underdogs in two weeks.

Why Kansas City Should Be Underdogs

 There are reasons to think the Chiefs shouldn’t be favored, however. 

  • Mahomes played well, but he’s clearly not 100%. The Bengals’ defensive line is good, but it’s not as elite as Philadelphia’s. The Chiefs’ offensive line will need to play brilliantly on every play to protect Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII.
  • The Chiefs are injured. Wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman all went down on Sunday. Linebacker Willie Gay and talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed are also banged up. 
  • The Chiefs own the most explosive offense and the best passing attack in the NFL, but they’re going up against the NFL’s best defense in that area.
  • Kansas City’s run defense played well against Cincinnati, permitting only 71 yards on the ground, but one week ago they allowed the Jaguars to run for 144 yards. They’ve been inconsistent throughout the season. They’re ranked 19th in yards per carry allowed (4.5). Against the Eagles, a top-five rushing team in most categories, that could be a problem. 
  • In most cases, Mahomes is simply the better quarterback, and that’s enough for the Chiefs to beat most teams. It might not matter as much in the big dance, though. Hurts rarely has to carry the Eagles; that’s just how dominant they are in the trenches. 

Final Thoughts

One thing we’ll break down for the next two weeks is this game’s betting total. I think it’s too high. Kansas City’s defense overperforms in big games, and we know how good the Eagles’ defense is. Mahomes may not be 100%, and Hurts hasn’t proven he can lead an explosive offense against a top-tier defense. I think there’s value in betting on the under.

As far as betting on one side goes, I’m not committing yet. The sharps made up their minds early, betting big on Philadelphia and moving the line a full three-plus points. I want to take what I consider good value on the Chiefs. I have these two teams power-rated equally, but it’s hard to do that considering the injuries to Mahomes and other Chiefs’ skill players. I’ll lean toward the Chiefs and hope this goes up to a +3. When it does, I’ll be all over the underdog.

WATCH: How Chiefs’ Chris Jones Stepped Up

Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup

Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup
Welcome to the NFL playoffs recap series. Each week, The 33rd Team’s Nic Bodiford will break down the results of the most recent playoff round, offering thoughts for NFL fans, fantasy football players and sports bettors. This article will provide you with important stats from the past weekend for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup and […]

Read More

DFS

Previewing the Conference Championship DFS Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.

For the full breakdown of coverage analysis, click the link below!

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/dfs/defensive-coverage-breakdown-for-every-conference-championship-team/

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/ 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is not coming in popular with that ankle injury
  • In 2019, he had a high ankle sprain in Week 1 on the opposite foot, and in the next six weeks on the injury report averaged 300.3 yards passing and two passing touchdowns
  • The Cincinnati Bengals will likely play Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a high rate; Mahomes ranked ninth in yards per attempt amongst QBs with at least 100 snaps against it
  • Pair Mahomes with two pass-catchers in every build; for large field tournaments, three can be viable

Jalen Hurts

  • The San Francisco 49ers will play a lot of zone coverage, and Jalen Hurts ranked third in yards per attempt against zone amongst QBs with 100 snaps against it
  • Hurts is the only QB on the slate with an ability to run, and I expect him to use his legs against this 49ers defense
  • The game script can go either way, and I believe we will see a big game from Hurts
  • Hurts is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and I am willing to eat the chalk

Joe Burrow

  • The Kansas City Chiefs will run a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 2 coverage against Burrow
  • Joe Burrow averages 8.6 yards per attempt and a 70.4% completion percentage against these two coverages
  • Against the Chiefs, Burrow led seven drives of at least eight plays. Five of his drives lasted four minutes of game time, and they will likely attempt to do that again
  • The ceiling game for Burrow comes down to the offensive line holding up and his ability to continue attempting quick yardage throws
  • Burrow is ranked third amongst QBs, and I will be underweight compared to the field

Brock Purdy

  • I will not be playing Brock Purdy this weekend; the pricing doesn’t generate enough of an advantage for paying down, and I don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

  • The 49ers have the advantage in the run game, and Christian McCaffrey is chalk I am willing to buy into
  • McCaffrey has an injury to monitor, but Shanahan knows he has to dial up the run game for his rookie quarterback on the road
  • The Eagles have given up over 100 yards rushing in six straight weeks
  • The trenches tool gives the 49ers a significant advantage in the run game
  • If you are not playing McCaffrey, I recommend getting to Elijah Mitchell

Joe Mixon

  • Slow, methodical drives will lead to Joe Mixon rushing attempts 
  • Mixon did not play in the first matchup. Samaje Perine ran for 106 yards and had six receptions for 49 yards
  • Mixon is a target for Burrow out of the backfield and will get usage near the red zone
  • I don’t believe Mixon is a must-have, but the slate of RBs is weak, and it won’t take a big game to be in the optimal build

Jerick McKinnon

  • Jerick McKinnon is the Chiefs running back I want because of his ability to pass protect. Isiah Pacheco will out-carry him, but McKinnon will make it up in the passing game
  • McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, and I believe that was because of the Mahomes’ injury
  • McKinnon is projected to be more popular than Pacheco

Miles Sanders

  • I will not be getting Miles Sanders; I think the Eagles throw a lot more than run, and near the red zone, it will be Hurts

Elijah Mitchell

  • McCaffrey is nursing an injury, and so is Mitchell, but I expect him to get enough carries to be viable
  • Mitchell is my preferred punt play at running back because I expect the 49ers to be run-heavy

Samaje Perine

  • Perine played extremely well against the Chiefs and has played over 40% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks
  • The only problem with Perine is he is more popular than Mitchell, and Mitchell will likely see more touches

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase

  • The most popular wide receiver on the entire slate, and it’s for a good reason
  • Ja’Marr Chase averages 139 yards against the Chiefs and has four touchdowns in three games
  • This season, he came off an injury and had seven receptions for 97 yards in that game, and whenever they saw Cover 1, it was an easy play for him to make
  • If the Chiefs can play Cover 2 for most of the game, I don’t believe he will have a big game to pay off the price. If they get the lead and force them into Cover 1, the explosive play is just waiting to happen

A.J. Brown

  • The 49ers’ corners can be beaten on the outside, and A.J. Brown will be able to out-physical them the way we saw DK Metcalf do in the wild-card round
  • If the 49ers attempt to play more Cover 3 coverage, Brown will be the player to have, but in Cover 4, Smith has been the preferred option
  • Crossing routes have hurt the 49ers this season, and Brown has 19% of his targets on these routes

DeVonta Smith

  • DeVonta Smith has been the go-to for the Eagles against Cover 4, and in games where the 49ers will have the lead or be in a one-score game, they will play plenty of that coverage
  • Smith has had eight targets in every game since Week 10, and I don’t think he will be under that number in this one
  • Brown has the highest ceiling, but Smith can have a big game

 

Deebo Samuel

  • I don’t trust Purdy enough to make plays down the field against a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. Deebo Samuel has not been getting much usage in the ground game to compensate for that

Tee Higgins

  • Burrow spreads the ball against Cover 2 coverage, and I think that style of play will limit the pass-catching group
  • Tee Higgins is priced in a spot where he will be popular, but it is chalk I am willing to go to because he has a high ceiling
  • In Cover 1, I expect Chase to be the main focus for this defense, and they will try to trust their corners on an island vs. Higgins

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster is not great against man coverage. However, he will have the opportunity to run routes one on one with Eli Apple, and can win in that matchup

Brandon Aiyuk

  • The Eagles’ safeties stay over the middle of the field, and James Bradberry gets beat in man situations down the sidelines
  • The only concern I have for Brandon Aiyuk is Purdy’s ability to make the throw, but out of the 49ers’ pass-catchers, he is my preferred option

Tyler Boyd

  • Tyler Boyd led the team in yards against Cover 2 coverage and is someone Burrow likes to target
  • In Burrow stacks, I will get plenty of exposure to Boyd

Kadarius Toney

  • Kadarius Toney is the most explosive player after the catch for the Chiefs, and I believe he is key to their offense performance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • The Bengals will play man-to-man coverage and bring pressure; the deep play will be there for the Chiefs’ pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quez Watkins

  • Quez Watkins is my favorite option under $4,000, and I believe he will have the opportunity to have a big play touchdown in the game

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce

  • Travis Kelce will get plenty of work in this game, and you shouldn’t be concerned about what he can do
  • The Bengals have a great scheme, but the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is too great

George Kittle

  • George Kittle scares me off because of his price and because he might be needed a lot more in pass protection and blocking in the run game
  • Kittle has a defensive scheme he can play well against, but like the wide receivers, I am not sure that Purdy can get the job done

Dallas Goedert

  • The 49ers have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFL, but they will have plenty to deal with against this Eagles’ run game and wide receiver room
  • Dallas Goedert is way too cheap on DraftKings, and is a strong play on the slate

Hayden Hurst

  • Like the quarterback position this weekend, I don’t think Hayden Hurst can keep pace with the top portion of the tight end room

Defense/Special Teams

49ers

  • The 49ers are viable, and I will be loading up those builds with the Chiefs-Bengals game

Eagles

  • The safest defense on the slate is the Eagles’; they are at home and going up against a rookie quarterback
  • I would correlate them with Hurts’ stacks because you want them to play with the lead and get after Purdy

Chiefs

  • Their defensive line is very motivated, and I am not buying into how well the Bengals’ offensive line played against the Bills
  • Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker, and I will be banking on him in this matchup

Bengals

  • Lou Anarumo has slowed this team down and confused them in coverages
  • They are the cheapest defense on the slate against a limited Patrick Mahomes

 

Favorite Stacks

  • QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Quez Watkins
    • Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey
  • QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Travis Kelce
    • Runback: WR Ja’Marr Chase
  • QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd
    • Runback: WR Kadarius Toney

Favorite Play

Quez Watkins

Favorite Fade

Deebo Samuel

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Patrick Mahomes QB KC vs CIN $7,600 $8,500 24.5
Jalen Hurts QB PHI vs SF $7,200 $9,200 24.25
Joe Burrow QB CIN @ KC $6,800 $8,300 23.5
Christian McCaffrey RB SF @ PHI $8,000 $9,000 22.25
Joe Mixon RB CIN @ KC $6,500 $8,100 23.5
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs CIN $5,400 $6,500 24.5
Eli Mitchell RB SF @ PHI $4,900 $5,600 22.25
Samaje Perine RB CIN @ KC $4,500 $5,300 23.5
JaMarr Chase WR CIN @ KC $7,600 $8,600 23.5
A.J. Brown WR PHI vs SF $7,000 $8,000 24.25
DeVonta Smith WR PHI vs SF $6,800 $7,700 24.25
Deebo Samuel WR SF @ PHI $5,700 $7,000 22.25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ KC $5,400 $6,700 23.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC vs CIN $4,700 $6,100 24.5
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF @ PHI $4,400 $6,000 22.25
Tyler Boyd WR CIN @ KC $3,800 $5,300 23.5
Kadarius Toney WR KC vs CIN $3,700 $5,600 24.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC vs CIN $3,600 $5,100 24.5
Quez Watkins WR PHI vs SF $3,100 $4,800 24.25
Travis Kelce TE KC vs CIN $7,800 $8,500 24.5
George Kittle TE SF @ PHI $5,200 $6,800 22.25
Dallas Goedert TE PHI vs SF $4,100 $6,400 24.25
49ers DST SF @ PHI $3,000 $4,100 24.25
Eagles DST PHI vs SF $2,800 $4,600 22.25
Chiefs DST KC vs CIN $2,500 $4,200 23.5
Bengals DST CIN @ KC $2,300 $4,000 24.5

WATCH: Finding a DFS Big Play Option From 49ers

DFS

AFC Championship DFS: Chiefs’ Toney Can Take Some Pressure Off Kelce, Mahomes vs. Bengals

Travis Kelce is a no-brainer for DFS against the Bengals, but Jordan Vanek and Greg Jennings think the next man up could be Kadarius Toney as a banged-up Patrick Mahomes will need some help to make plays.

Other Jennings/Vanek Previews: Bengals, Eagles

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