Analysis
11/26/22
7 min read
Stack Chargers, Dolphins in Week 12 DFS Main Slate Games
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen
Runback: RB James Conner
Herbert had his first game over nine yards per attempt last week and is now playing a team that has given up 21 passing touchdowns this year. The Cardinals primarily play zone, along with Herbert's main targets against zone coverage being Ekeler and Allen. Both players get targeted on over 30% of routes run. Allen averages over four yards per route run against it. It’s a big salary commitment; however, we have seen this trio get there. The Cardinals have given up 4.5 yards per carry and 8.5 yards per reception to running backs.
The Chargers have been one of the worst run defenses in football, and with Kyler Murray’s hamstring injury, I expect the main workload to be Conner. Marquise Brown also comes back into the lineup, and I believe the Chargers will play more zone coverage than they did the week before, and limit the passing attack of the Cardinals.
Stack: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jeff Wilson and WR Tyreek Hill
Runback: WR Nico Collins
The Texans run a lot of cover 2 and cover 3 coverage. Not to mention, Tagovailoa has averaged 10.6 yards per attempt against it. Hill averages 4.01 yards per route run against these coverages with a 29% target share. Jeff Wilson will have the full-time workload and has averaged over six yards per carry with the Miami Dolphins. The Texans have been one of the NFL's worst run defenses this season, and allowed multiple running backs over 140 yards rushing.
The main player on the Texans that interests me is Nico Collins. The primary coverages are Cover 1 and Cover 3 for Miami. In the NFL since Week 7, Collins is ranked eighth in targets per route run against these coverages. At $4,100, Collins is a salary savior that will get deep targets from Kyle Allen.
Stack: QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Terry McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas
Runback: WR Drake London
Monitoring the rain situation in Washington will be a big factor in this game. However, there is a lot to love with Heinicke in this matchup. The Falcons have given up 7.6 yards per attempt and 4.2 yards per carry. The Commanders have not been effective in the run game, and I expect them to throw the ball more in this game. The Falcons will give them man coverages and have the players beat it. McLaurin has a 35% target share since Heinicke has taken over and averages 3.1 yards per route run. Additionally, Thomas has had ten targets in the last two weeks, and the Falcons haven’t been great against tight ends. George Kittle, David Njoku, and Tyler Higbee had over 70 yards receiving but were unable to score a touchdown.
Although Kyle Pitts is out for the rest of the year, the Commanders have been a great run defense this season. Even so, Drake London is in line for a big target share. The Commanders will play a lot of cover 1 to load the box against the Atlanta rushing attack, and London, with Pitts, has had a 39% target share against it. How often Marcus Mariota drops back will be a problem, but I see a lot of targets going London’s way.
Single Stacks
No Single stacks this weekend.
Mini-Stacks
Las Vegas at Seattle
WR Davante Adams and RB Kenneth Walker III
The Seahawks have some very talented corners, but guarding Adams for a full game is a different story. Adams has a high target share against each of the Seahawks' primary coverages, and with volume, Adams will be a major factor. Adams has had 13 targets in three straight games, and the connection with Carr has been displayed.
Four RBs have had 20 rushing attempts against the Raiders, and three scored 24 or more points. Walker has had 20 or more attempts in three of the five games he’s been a starter. In the last two games he has had 12 targets, and the Raiders have allowed over five receptions in a game to four different RBs.
One-Offs
TE Travis Kelce
Kelce has been unstoppable as of late, and this matchup is no different. The Rams have blitzed a lot, and Kelce has been unguardable one-on-one. The Chiefs are projected to have one of the highest point totals this week, which will ride on Kelce.
TE Mark Andrews
Andrews ran over 90% of the routes last weekend and will be their main producer in the passing game. The Jaguars allowed Kelce to have over 20 points, and he was 20 yards away from the 100-yard receiving bonus. This is one of the weeks where paying up for the top tight end could be an effective way to build your lineups.
WR Garrett Wilson/WR Elijah Moore
The Jets have two cheap wide receivers that can be part of a functional offense with new QB Mike White. Wilson has been the number one wide receiver this year and has a low average depth of target, which fits into what White wants to do passing-wise. Moore has moved to the slot and had a connection with White in the starts he made last year. Both of these wide receivers will have free space to work against the zone coverage of the Bears.
Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | @ ARI | $7,000 | $7,900 | 25.75 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | vs HOU | $6,900 | $8,300 | 30.25 |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | WAS | vs ATL | $5,300 | $6,500 | 22.25 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | vs NO | $8,800 | $9,200 | 25.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | @ ARI | $8,500 | $8,800 | 25.75 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | vs TB | $7,800 | $8,100 | 19.75 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | SEA | vs LV | $6,900 | $8,400 | 25.25 |
| James Conner | RB | ARI | vs LAC | $6,600 | $7,000 | 22.75 |
| Jeff Wilson | RB | MIA | vs HOU | $5,900 | $7,700 | 30.25 |
| D'Onta Foreman | RB | CAR | vs DEN | $5,500 | $6,700 | 17.75 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | vs CHI | $5,400 | $6,200 | 22.25 |
| Rachaad White | RB | TB | @ CLE | $5,100 | $6,400 | 22.75 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | vs HOU | $8,800 | $9,200 | 30.25 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LV | @ SEA | $8,600 | $9,000 | 22.25 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | ARI | vs LAC | $7,700 | $8,400 | 22.75 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | vs HOU | $7,300 | $8,100 | 30.25 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | @ TEN | $6,900 | $8,200 | 22.75 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | vs LV | $6,500 | $7,400 | 25.25 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | @ ARI | $6,100 | $7,300 | 25.75 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | @ TEN | $5,900 | $6,700 | 22.75 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | vs ATL | $5,800 | $7,200 | 22.25 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | vs LAR | $5,700 | $6,600 | 28.75 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | @ CAR | $5,600 | $7,100 | 18.75 |
| Josh Palmer | WR | LAC | @ ARI | $5,400 | $6,800 | 25.75 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | vs LAC | $5,300 | $7,000 | 22.75 |
| DJ Moore | WR | CAR | vs DEN | $5,000 | $6,200 | 17.75 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | vs ATL | $5,000 | $6,500 | 22.25 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | @ WAS | $4,900 | $6,100 | 18.25 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | vs CHI | $4,300 | $6,000 | 22.25 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | vs CIN | $4,200 | $5,900 | 20.75 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | @ MIA | $4,100 | $6,000 | 16.25 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | vs ATL | $4,000 | $5,800 | 22.25 |
| DeAndre Carter | WR | LAC | @ ARI | $3,700 | $5,900 | 25.75 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | NYJ | vs CHI | $3,500 | $5,300 | 22.25 |
| Denzel Mims | WR | NYJ | vs CHI | $3,100 | $5,200 | 22.25 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs LAR | $7,700 | $8,200 | 28.75 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | @ JAC | $6,500 | $7,300 | 23.25 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | @ ARI | $4,400 | $5,200 | 25.75 |
| Foster Moreau | TE | LV | @ SEA | $3,400 | $5,400 | 22.25 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | WAS | vs ATL | $3,000 | $5,200 | 22.25 |
| Dolphins | DST | MIA | vs HOU | $3,900 | $4,400 | 16.25 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | @ CAR | $3,800 | $3,900 | 17.75 |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | vs CHI | $3,300 | $5,000 | 16.25 |
| Panthers | DST | CAR | vs DEN | $3,000 | $3,900 | 18.75 |
| Chiefs | DST | KC | vs LAR | $2,800 | $4,900 | 13.75 |
| Cardinals | DST | ARI | vs LAC | $2,700 | $3,800 | 25.75 |
| Raiders | DST | LV | @ SEA | $2,600 | $3,400 | 25.25 |
Watch More: Best NFL Bets of Week 12
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