Betting
10/28/22
7 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Panthers vs. Falcons
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4)
Opening Spread: Falcons -6.
Opening Game Total: 41.5.
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (24), Panthers (18).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons -6.
- This line has moved down to Falcons -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Falcons -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons -4.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total remains at 41.5.
Notable Injuries
Falcons: IR: Cordarrelle Patterson, Casey Hayward. Out: S Jaylin Hawkins. Questionable: RB Caleb Huntley, CB A.J. Terrell, CB Dee Alford.
Panthers: Questionable: RB Chuba Hubbard, RG Austin Corbett, DT Matt Ioannidis, CB Jaycee Horn, S Myles Hartsfield.
The Falcons Offense vs. Panthers Defense
This is a trench matchup between two lines that are both right on the border of average to below average. Panthers Edge Brian Burns is a dynamic athlete that can be a handful for most offensive tackles. Since the Falcons have radically reduced their passing game volume, there may not be many opportunities for Burns to rush the passer here, anyway. From a macro sense, neither team has an edge in the trenches.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 5-2 on overs this season.
- Marcus Mariota is 39-38-2 against the spread in his career.
- Mariota is 45-33-1 on overs in his career.
- Arthur Smith is 12-11-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Smith is 12-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Falcons Offense
- The Falcons are scoring 23.3 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Atlanta is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among quarterbacks Marcus Mariota is seventh in the league in yards rushing per game.
- Despite losing to the Bengals 35-17 last week, Mariota only had 13 passing attempts. He’s only exceeded 20 passing attempts once in the last four games.
- Since Cordarrelle Patterson went on injured reserve Tyler Allgeier has 44 carries and Caleb Huntley has 30 carries. Neither running back has a target over that span.
- Until the Falcons passing game volume increases significantly, blue chip talents Drake London and Kyle Pitts are little more than stash options in fantasy.
Panthers Defense
- The Panthers have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the 11th most yards rushing per game and the 17th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has given up the 12th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Panthers have allowed the 25th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
The Panthers Offense vs. Falcons Defense
This is a trench matchup between two below average fronts. From a macro sense neither team has an advantage. However, Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is a matchup issue for the Panthers offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 2-5 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 2-5 on overs this season.
- PJ Walker is 4-8 against the spread in his career.
- Walker is 5-7 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 8-9-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Wilks is 7-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Panthers Offense
- The Panthers are scoring 17.7 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Carolina is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- Baker Mayfield is off the injury report, but PJ Walker is getting the start against Atlanta.
- With Christian McCaffrey now in San Francisco, D’Onta Foreman led the Panthers last week with 15 carries and two targets. Chuba Hubbard added nine carries and three targets, while getting nicked up in the contest.
- It’s very possible that Foreman will end up with the run heavy portion of the timeshare while Hubbard ends up with the pass heavy portion when both backs are healthy.
- Per the Edge, D.J. Moore has at least six targets in every game, and he’s broken double digits twice. Moore has yet to breach 70 yards receiving in a game this season. Moore’s season is being derailed by subpar quarterback play.
Falcons Defense
- The Falcons have allowed 24.4 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 24th most yards rushing per game and the ninth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Atlanta has allowed the second most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Falcons have given up the third most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Falcons vs. Panthers
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on a team that is going to run the ball as often as they can regardless of the score. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS this year as they’ve either beaten or given everyone else but the Bengals a game this season. I am very surprised this team is 3-4, with a path to winning the NFC South given the struggles that the Buccaneers and Saints have had. If you’re going to bet on Atlanta as 4.5-point favorites this week, you are betting on the Falcons run-centric offense while their defense strings together another solid outing against a Panthers team that traded their best player last week. A Falcons bet can also be a direct bet against PJ Walker.
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A bet on the Panthers is a bet on a team that has already waved the white flag on their season, but still came out and beat Tom Brady’s Buccaneers last week. Not only did the Panthers win that game, but they ended up blowing Tampa Bay out 21-3. If that’s not the most unexpected upset of the season, it’s close.
If you’re betting on the Panthers, you’re probably a little concerned that they play down in Atlanta after that big win. Carolina has a sneaky solid defense, so if you’re betting on the Panthers, you’re betting on their defense putting together a strong effort against a Falcons team that is consistently throwing fewer than 20 passes every week. Your biggest concern with a Panthers bet is that you need Walker’s offense to put together a few scoring drives. If Walker struggles in this game, there’s some chance that Baker Mayfield comes on in relief. I’m not very enthusiastic about Baker Mayfield, but if I’m betting on the Panthers, I think there are more paths to a cover with Mayfield at quarterback.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take Carolina in at least one winner pool as a way to get different with that entry. In confidence pools I expect to be a little lower than consensus on this option.
Spread Pool: I’m going to stay completely away from this one, but in a pool where I have to pick every game I’d lean towards the Panthers with the points.
Survivor Pool: Atlanta will probably be pretty chalky in survivor pools this week. I intend to avoid the Falcons in survivor pools presently.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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