Analysis

10/19/22

9 min read

NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Saints vs. Cardinals

Kyler Murray Saints vs. Cardinals
Oct 27, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scrambles against New Orleans Saints defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (22) in the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday Night Football: New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Opening Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Opening Game Total: 45.

Team Totals: Cardinals (23.25), Saints (21.75).

Weather: Dome.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Cardinals -1.5.
  • This line has moved to Cardinals -2.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cardinals -2.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
  • This total opened at 45 points.
  • This total has moved up slightly to 45.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Cardinals: Out: WR Marquise Brown. Questionable: RB James Conner, RB Eno Benjamin, RB Darrell Williams, LG Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson, Edge Dennis Gardeck, LB Zaven Collins, CB Trayvon Mullen, S Jalen Thompson, K Matt Prater.

Saints: IR: LT Trevor Penning. Out: WR Michael Thomas, WR Jarvis Landry, TE Adam Trautman, LG Andrus Peat, CB Marshon Lattimore. Questionable: QB Jameis Winston, QB Andy Dalton, RB Mark Ingram, WR Chris Olave, CB Paulson Adebo.

The Cardinals Offense vs. the Saints Defense

The Cardinals offensive line is right on the border of an average and below-average unit. Kyler Murray’s evasion abilities are an asset to the Cardinals' pass protection. Arizona’s starting left guard and center remain on the injury report as of Thursday afternoon. The Saints have a top-10 caliber front that has been a consistent factor over the last few weeks. The Saints have a moderate edge in the trenches in this matchup. That could increase if Cardinals guard Justin Pugh or center Rodney Hudson end up missing this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Cardinals are 3-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Cardinals are 1-4-1 on overs this season.
  • Kyler Murray is 27-23-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Kyler Murray is 21-29-2 on overs in his career.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 29-24-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 23-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Cardinals Offense

  • The Cardinals are scoring 19 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
  • Arizona is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Kyler Murray is 38th in the league in yards per attempt, 36th in air yards per attempt, and 39th in play action percentage.
  • On a per game basis, Murray has fielded the seventh-most hurries, the 16th-most pressures, and taken the 14th-most sacks.
  • Among quarterbacks Murray is sixth in the league with 233 yards rushing.
  • James Conner and Darrell Williams missed last week’s contest in Seattle. Eno Benjamin took on the majority of the running back workload in their absence.
  • Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will be sidelined for six weeks or more, but the Cardinals get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension this week.
  • In his three games since returning from injury, Rondale Moore has 16 receptions on 128 yards receiving. Moore has a 21.9% target share with a 13.1% air yards share.
  • Among tight ends, Zach Ertz is third in the league in targets (51), receptions (35), fifth in yards receiving (299), and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (2). Ertz is fifth at the position with a 21.1% target share, and his 22.7% air yards share is fourth.
  • Per TruMedia, Rondale Moore has played 65 snaps on the perimeter and 124 in the slot.
  • Zach Ertz is sixth among all pass catchers with 199 snaps played in the slot. Ertz has played 119 snaps as an inline tight end and 36 on the perimeter.

Saints Defense

  • The Saints have allowed 26.3 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
  • New Orleans is 16th in net yards passing allowed per game and 20th in yards rushing allowed per game.
  • New Orleans is 17th in the league in sacks with 13 and tied for last in interceptions with one.
  • Per The Edge, on a per-game basis, the Saints have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing and the second-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • On a per-game basis, New Orleans has given up the fourth-most yards receiving on the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • New Orleans has given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers this year.
  • The Saints have shut down enemy tight ends, allowing the 28th-most yards receiving per game and the 29th-most receptions per game to the position. 

The Saints Offense vs. the Cardinals Defense

The Saints are a fringe top-10 offensive line, despite being down left tackle Trevor Penning. The Cardinals have a bottom-tier front. The Saints have an edge in this trench matchup.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Saints are 2-4 against the spread this season.
  • The Saints are 4-2 on overs this season.
  • Andy Dalton is 79-70-6 against the spread in his career.
  • Andy Dalton is 80-74-1 on overs in his career.
  • Jameis Winston is 38-43-5 against the spread in his career.
  • Jameis Winston is 43-42-1 on overs in his career.
  • Dennis Allen is 16-25-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Dennis Allen is 20-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Saints Offense

  • The Saints are scoring 23.5 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
  • New Orleans is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, over the past two games, Alvin Kamara has 42 carries for 202 yards rushing and 12 receptions on 15 targets for 116 yards receiving. This is an abnormally heavy workload for Kamara.
  • The Saints entire starting wide receiver trio of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave missed last week’s contest against the Bengals.
  • Chris Olave leads the Saints in target share (25.8%) and air yards share (43.7%).
  • Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith are among the best fourth and fifth wide receivers in the league.
  • Tight end Juwan Johnson leads Saints pass catchers in snaps (318), and he’s second in routes run (142) with a 12.8% target share and an 11.6% air yards share.
  • Per TruMedia, Juwan Johnson has played 137 snaps as an in-line tight end, 91 in the slot, and 31 on the perimeter.

Cardinals Defense

  • The Cardinals have allowed 23.7 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
  • Arizona is 20th in net yards passing allowed per game and seventh in yards rushing allowed per game.
  • Arizona is 23rd in the league in sacks with 11 and 23rd in interceptions with two.
  • Per The Edge, on a per-game basis, the Cardinals have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing and the 16th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • On a per-game basis, Arizona has given up the 26th-most yards receiving on the 19th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game on the most receptions to tight ends this season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the third-most to tight ends in the slot.

This is What You’re Betting On in Saints vs. Cardinals

Both of these teams are 2-4, making this a contest between two highly motivated teams whose seasons are starting to slip away. Both teams have a ton of relevant players on the injury report, though the Saints' injury situation is more resolved than Arizona’s, as of Wednesday afternoon’s update. The last time these two teams played was in 2019, when Drew Brees was the Saints' quarterback. The results of that contest are meaningless to me when trying to determine a range of outcomes for this contest.

A bet on the Cardinals is a bet on Kyler Murray’s offense bouncing back after a brutal showing in Seattle last week. Arizona will be down Hollywood Brown, but that loss will be mitigated some by the return of DeAndre Hopkins, with newly-acquired Robbie Anderson potentially mixing in on a limited basis. Saints star cornerback Marshon Lattimore is set to miss his second game, which is a considerable positive for Arizona, most notably Hopkins. Saints wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have both been ruled out, while Chris Olave’s status is still up in the air.

At full strength, the Saints would be in a great position to exploit Arizona’s weak cornerback group. The Saints' injuries at wide receiver are a big positive for Arizona bettors. Your biggest concerns with a Cardinals bet are related to line play, as the Saints have an edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Your second biggest concern is that Kyler Murray’s offense continues to be inconsistent.

A bet on the Saints is a bet on an injury-ravaged roster playing a road game on a short week. New Orleans is down at least two of their three starting wide receivers and their left guard on offense. They are down Marshon Lattimore, who is one of their two best defensive players. Both Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton remain on the injury report as of Wednesday afternoon. The Cardinals are beat up themselves, but they are in considerably better shape than the Saints injury-wise.

If New Orleans wins this game, that likely comes behind their advantages in the trenches. If Jameis Winston returns to action, the Saints offense has a higher ceiling, but I’d argue that Winston also brings a lower, more volatile floor than Andy Dalton. Your biggest concern with a Saints bet, apart from them having to overcome so many relevant injuries on a short week, is that Kyler Murray is capable of carrying his offense past just about anyone.

Per TruMedia, over the last 152 games played on Thursday Night Football, home teams are 80-68-4 ATS over that span. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point, while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.

Saints vs. Cardinals Pool Picks

Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking Arizona in winner pools, and I expect that I will be higher than the consensus on them in my confidence rankings.

Spread Pool: I bet Cardinals -1.5 early in the week, as I expected that line to reach three full points. I’m going to wait for the final injury report, but as it stands now, I expect to take the Cardinals -2.5 in one of my ATS tournament entries. At full strength, the Saints have a better roster than Arizona. New Orleans’ injury situation greatly reduces that edge, while the Cardinals have a much better quarterback. That, paired with the baseline advantage that home teams have on Thursday Night Football, has meaning leaning towards the Cardinals side in this contest.

Survivor Pool: The Cardinals are an aggressive survivor pool option on a slate with a number of solid options.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 21-9

Props 2022: 19-12


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