Analysis
9/28/23
12 min read
NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Jordan Love Attempts Prop
More than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes each week. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Jordan Love OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings
This is already juiced to -130 or higher everywhere else we've seen. Jordan Love is just 1-2 on this over through three weeks, but it’s a sneaky good bet. Love was under this number in Week 1 vs. Chicago, when the Packers blew the Chicago Bears out and didn't need to throw.
In Week 2, Love was under this number vs. Atlanta, mainly because Green Bay couldn't stop the Atlanta Falcons' elite rushing attack. The Falcons had 45 rush attempts in that game and time of possession was 36:15 vs. 23:45 in Atlanta's favor.
Last week, Love trailed against the New Orleans Saints and threw 44 times. On Thursday, he faces a Detroit Lions offense that will put up some points and force Love to pass more. Love also gets Christian Watson back. Against the Lions, quarterbacks have thrown 39, 41 and 38 times this year, which is way higher than the 33 attempts Love needs to hit the over.
Bet by: Larky
Raheem Mostert OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds:-110 on BetMGM
This is an excellent matchup of one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL against a rush defense that has been prone to giving up big plays. Raheem Mostert averages nearly six yards per carry and ranks second in the NFL in the percentage of rushes that go 10+ yards (min 30 rushes). The Miami Dolphins offense is one of the most creative in the league, and Mostert will be put in great situations to pick up yards on the ground.
The Bills' defense has been surprisingly bad to start the season. 41.1% of rush attempts go for five or more yards against them, and they are only behind the terrible Broncos defense for most rushes of 20+ yards given up. I expect this Bills defense to get better as the season goes on, but Miami should find plenty of holes in the defense to exploit
I would play this confidently up to 60.5 rushing yards.
Bet By: Brian O’Connell
Jerick McKinnon UNDER 10.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
This has already moved to -130 on DraftKings. Jerick McKinnon carried the ball zero times in Week 1. In Week 2, he carried once for -2 yards. In Week 3, he had two carries for 9 yards. But those two carries came in the fourth quarter once the Kansas City Chiefs were up 41-0 on the Chicago Bears. He plays the New York Jets this week, and I don't expect a 41-0 blowout against this defense. I put multiple units on this bet.
Bet by: Larky
Lamar Jackson OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Best Odds: +105 on DraftKings
I think this is listed at plus odds because Lamar Jackson has only thrown one pick this year, and Cleveland only has one pick this year on defense. However, if we zoom out, Jackson threw 20 interceptions over 24 games from 2021-2022.
Per our free and flagship tool, The Edge, the Cleveland Browns have pressured quarterbacks on 43.8 percent of dropbacks (third highest). Per The Edge, Jackson's quarterback rating under pressure this year is 34th (behind Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, etc. Only Ryan Tannehill has attempted more than five passes with a quarterback rating lower than Jackson's under pressure).
Through three games, the Browns' defense is playing at a historic pace, with 112 pass yards per game allowed and 52 rush yards per game allowed. It's time for the Browns to get their second interception of the season, folks.
Bet by: Larky
Miles Sanders UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Miles Sanders had 18 carries for 72 yards in Week 1 against Atlanta, but his workload has declined. In Week 2, he saw 14 carries and only ran for 43 yards. In Week 3, he only carried nine times for 24 yards, so he’s hit the UNDER in two of three games. In Week 4, he faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that’s surprisingly stout against the run.
While they allowed 224 yards on the ground to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 at 6.2 yards per carry (YPC), that’s more of a reflection of how strong Philadelphia’s offensive line is. Minnesota shut down Buccaneers running backs in Week 1 (2.6 YPC), along with Chargers runners in Week 2 (1.5 YPC). Meanwhile, the Vikings are giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt, tied for fifth-highest in the league. The Carolina Panthers’ path to success on Sunday is through the air rather than Miles Sanders on the ground.
Bet by: Larky
Tee Higgins OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
Tee Higgins has 28 targets this year, with at least eight in each game. He only has 10 receptions and 110 receiving yards on those 28 targets. This is a regression play. The Tennessee Titans have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, and the only concern with this line is the Titans' pass rush.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Kyle Pitts OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
While it’s slightly scary to bet on Kyle Pitts, he had nine targets last week in a negative game script. The London game likely results in the Atlanta Falcons trailing again. Pitts has beaten this number in two of three games this year.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Ezekiel Elliott has beaten this number in two of three games and smoked it last week with 80 yards. The Arizona Cardinals beat up Dallas in the trenches. The 33rd Team contributor (and former NFL defensive coordinator) Chuck Pagano said they ran right at Micah Parsons by design. Bill Belichick’s going to do something similar in Week 4.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Dak Prescott UNDER 19 fantasy points
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Dak Prescott is 2-1 on the under for the season, and while DraftKings gives a three-point bonus for reaching 300 passing yards, Prescott is yet to crest 255 yards in a game this year. He faces a stingy New England Patriots defense that has yet to allow even 13 fantasy points to a quarterback this season (it already has faced Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts). Last week, Prescott struggled against an inferior Cardinals defense, and the Dallas offensive line is currently dealing with multiple injuries.
Bet by: Larky
Joe Mixon UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Joe Mixon has been OVER this number in all three games, so why would you take this? First, Mixon has 13-56, 13-59, and 19-65 rushing stat lines through three games, so he's not crushing the OVER in any game. Mixon faces the Titans this week, and they have the best run defense in the NFL.
An extreme pass funnel defense, the Titans are allowing a league-low 2.7 YPC to running backs while allowing 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
In Week 1, Saints runners carried 19 times for 50 yards. In Week 2, Chargers running backs carried 18 times for 48 yards. In Week 3, Browns running backs reached 58 total rushing yards on 21 attempts, but it was 10 carries for Jerome Ford, six carries for Pierre Strong and five carries for Kareem Hunt.
It's a tall task to ask any running back to handle heavy volume vs. Tennessee and succeed. The Browns also have an elite offensive line, which the Bengals don’t have. Running backs have been between 2.6 - 2.7 YPC in all three games vs. the Titans, and Mixon probably needs almost 20 carries to hit his OVER in this game.
Mixon had 13 carries vs. Cleveland and vs. Baltimore in Weeks 1 and 2, which is the workload I expect. He had 19 carries vs. the Rams in Week 3, but they're a soft run defense. I'm anticipating 10-15 carries for 30-45 yards rushing against Tennessee this Sunday.
Bet by: Larky
Tutu Atwell OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Below, you can see Tutu Atwell has been over this number in all three games so far. In Week 4, he faces an Indianapolis Colts team with possibly the worst outside cornerback duo in the league.
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
| 1 | Seahawks | 8 | 6 | 119 |
| 2 | 49ers | 9 | 7 | 77 |
| 3 | Bengals | 9 | 4 | 50 |
Bet by: Larky
Mac Jones OVER 8.5 Rush Yds
Best Odds: +100 on DraftKings
Quarterbacks are running for their lives vs. the Dallas Cowboys' defense.
Quarterbacks have the most rushes, the most rushing yards, and seventh-most yards per carry vs. this Dallas defense. Why? Their topped-rank secondary and fifth-highest pressure rate are forcing quarterbacks out of the pocket. Quarterbacks are rushing on 17.5 percent of their pressures vs. Dallas, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
As a matter of fact, every single quarterback has had at least five rushes and 36 yards against this defense. That said, Joshua Dobbs, Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones are a bit more mobile than Mac Jones, but he’s still had at least two rushes and at least 13 yards in every game this season, averaging 3.5 rushes and 17.5 yards per game – which is double this line.
When quarterbacks vs. Dallas are 3-0 over and Jones is 3-0 over, +100 is a no-brainer.
Bet by: Wolby
Mark Andrews UNDER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This is a line Mark Andrews has yet to hit this season and didn’t hit in a single game vs. Cleveland last year.
As for this season, he has only played two games, but through three weeks, he’s top-seven in targets per game and receptions per game, yet falls outside the top-ten in receiving yards per game. The volume is there for Andrews to be productive, but the efficiency is not.
As far as efficiency goes, against this Browns defense - the outlook is grim.
Game logs for starting TEs vs CLE:
| Week | Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
| 1 | Irv Smith | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 2 | Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Add up all these guys' usage combined and it's 10 targets for 26 yards. It’s possible Andrews has 10 targets – but if he does, what’s the signal he’ll be nearly TWICE as efficient as these TEs?
My model suggests Andrews has a 56 percent chance of going under against a league-average D – in line with his 8-6 record over his last 14 games.
But against this historic Cleveland defense? 76 percent on the under.
Bet by: Wolby
Joshua Dobbs Longest Completion UNDER 31.5
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Dobbs had his first completion this year of 30 or more yards just last week against the Dallas defense. It was a 29-air-yard pass, but it had 40 yards after the catch from rookie WR Michael Wilson.
As a gunslinger, Dobbs is three of nine on his attempts of 20+ air yards. Four of those incompletions were attempts of 30+. There's not a ton of concern for Dobbs beating you over the top.
On the flip side of the ball, quarterbacks vs. the San Francisco 49ers are 0 for 8 on air-yard attempts of 20+. This defense is legit; it is the only team in the NFL to not allow a completion of 32 or more yards. They are allowing the second fewest yards after catch per reception.
Yes, Dobbs cooked the Dallas defense last week, but this 49ers team is different.
31.5 is the lowest I think I’ve ever seen this prop, but it still feels like something fluky needs to happen for this to go over.
Bet by: Wolby
Grant Delpit (CLE) OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: +120 on Bet365 and DraftKings
Grant Delpit has gone over this total in two out of three games so far this year. The only game that he went under this total was last week against the Tennessee Titans, who were the second worst matchup for safeties a year ago and have given up the fourth least amount of tackles to safeties through three weeks this year.
Last year, Delpit went over this total in both games against the Baltimore Ravens with games of seven and nine total tackles. Through three weeks, he has spent 75 percent of his snaps lined up in the box, on the defensive line or in the slot. The Ravens were the top matchup for opposing safeties a year ago and, so far in 2023, they are the sixth best matchup. We are getting plus money on a prop that my model has winning around 71 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Kyzir White (ARI) OVER 8.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: +105 Bet365 and MGM
Kyzir White has gone over this total in two of his first three games as an Arizona Cardinal. He only went over this total three times last season, but never reached 100 percent of the snaps with the Eagles, and only played over 90 percent in two games.
He plays against a San Francisco 49ers team that gave up the sixth most tackles per game to linebackers last season and, through three games in 2023, have given up the fifth most tackles per game to the position. It's a small sample size, but they are giving up tackles to linebackers at a rate 23 percent higher than league average. My model has him going over this total around 68% of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
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