Opening Spread: Jaguars -6.5
Opening Game Total: 38.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.5) Titans (16)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars -6.5
- This line has moved to Jaguars -5.5
- This total opened at 38.5-points
- This total has moved to 39.5-points
Jaguars: Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, RG Brandon Scherff, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, Edge Travon Walker, S Rayshawn Jenkins.
Titans: Questionable: WR Treylon Burks, RT Nicholas Petit-Frere, DL Jeffery Simmons, LB Dylan Cole, CB Kristian Fulton, S Amani Hooker.
Jaguars Offense vs. Titans Defense
I have the Jaguars’ offensive line tiered as a fringe top-10 offensive line since they are without left tackle Cam Robinson. I have the Titans’ defensive front tiered as a top-ten unit. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup that I’m treating as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 8-8 against the spread this season
- Jacksonville is 8-8 on overs this season
- Trevor Lawrence is 13-20 against the spread in his career
- Lawrence is 13-20 on overs in his career
- Doug Pederson is 46-50 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Pederson is 47-49 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- Jacksonville scores 24 points per game, good for 11th in the league
- The Jaguars are 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing
- Jacksonville passes on 62% of plays and runs on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne is eighth in the league in yards rushing with 1,108, and he’s 17th among running backs in yards receiving
- Christian Kirk has 78 receptions for 1,009 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 22.9% target share and a 28.5% air yards share
- Zay Jones has 78 receptions for 802 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 22.2% target share and a 26.4% air yards share
- Marvin Jones has 44 receptions for 500 yards receiving and three touchdowns with a 14.3% target share and a 26.2% air yards share
- Evan Engram has 69 receptions for 739 yards receiving and four touchdowns with a 17.2% target share and a 15.2% air yards share
- Per TruMedia, Kirk played 271 snaps on the perimeter and 610 in the slot
- Zay Jones has played 571 snaps on the perimeter and 266 in the slot
- Marvin Jones has played 554 snaps on the perimeter and 92 in the slot
- Engram has played 365 snaps as an in-line tight end, 150 on the perimeter and 256 in the slot
- Tennessee has allowed 21.2 points per game, which is 15th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Tennessee has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Titans have given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the third-most to those in the slot
- Tennessee has allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Titans have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends
The Titans Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
I have the Titans tiered as a below-average offensive line. I have the Jaguars’ defensive front tiered toward the back of league average. The Jaguars’ front is inconsistent, but it’s talented enough to have a spike game against this below-average Titans offensive line. From a macro sense, I’m giving the Jaguars’ defense a slight advantage in the trenches while being aware of their potential for a spike game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-7-1 against the spread this season
- Tennessee is 5-11 on overs this season
- Joshua Dobbs is 0-1 against the spread in his career
- Dobbs is 0-1 on overs in his career
- Mike Vrabel is 41-38-2 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Vrabel is 43-37-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- Tennessee scores 17.6 points per game, which is 28th in the league
- The Titans are 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing
- Tennessee passes on 54% of plays and runs on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- After getting the unexpected start against Dallas last week, Dobbs will be the Titans’ starting quarterback for their biggest game of the season
- Dobbs is a more capable passer than Malik Willis at this stage of his career
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is third in the league in yards rushing with 1,429 and second in rushing touchdowns with 13. Henry is ninth among running backs in yards receiving
- Robert Woods has 49 receptions for 487 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 20.8% target share and a 22.9% air yards share
- Treylon Burks has 29 receptions for 425 yards receiving and one touchdown with a 17.1% target share and a 26.9% air yards share
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has 29 receptions for 408 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 10.3% target share and a 9.6% air yards share on the season
- Per TruMedia, Woods has played 502 snaps on the perimeter and 197 in the slot
- Burks has played 265 snaps on the perimeter and 57 in the slot
- Okonkwo has played 185 snaps as an inline tight end, 31 on the perimeter and 72 in the slot
- Jacksonville has allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 12th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Jacksonville has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Jaguars have given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Jaguars have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
The winner of this Saturday night contest will win the AFC South. There are scenarios where the loser of this contest could end up as the seventh seed, but both of these teams have their eyes on their division title. The Jaguars beat the Titans, in Tennessee, 36-22 in Week 14. Ryan Tannehill was the Titans’ quarterback in that contest.
If You’re Betting on the Jaguars
The Jaguars are 5-1 since their Week 11 bye, taking down the Ravens, Titans, Cowboys, Jets and Texans. Jacksonville won three of those contests by at least 14 points while scoring 28 or more in four of those five victories. Lawrence has already inserted himself into the top-10 quarterback conversation. He threw for 368 yards against the Titans a month ago. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you are building that bet around Lawrence’s ascending offense.
A bet on the Jaguars can also be a bet against Dobbs in just his second start this season. In their last two games, the Jaguars’ defense held the Jets and Texans to just three points a piece. You don’t want to build a bet around that type of dominant defensive performance, but the Jaguars’ defense is playing well, and they have shown throughout the season they have a high ceiling against vulnerable offenses like the Titans. Your biggest concern as a Jaguars’ bettor is Henry doing what he does best at this time of year, while Vrabel’s well-coached defense plays significantly better than they did in Week 14.
If You’re Betting on the Titans
You have to build a Titans bet around two core concepts. The first is Henry having a successful, high-volume game on the ground allowing Dobbs to serve as a game manager. The second is Vrabel’s defense keeping the Jaguars around their 22.5-team total. Lawrence has breached 300 yards passing in three of his last six games, but Vrabel is among the best defensive game planners in the league. If you’re betting on the Titans, you are primarily betting on Vrabel’s defense.
You have a number of concerns as a Titans bettor. Your biggest is the Titans continuing to be shredded through the air, forcing Dobbs to hold up in a shootout. Your second is the Titans’ unreliable offensive line. The Jaguars’ defensive front has been inconsistent themselves, but they have enough high-end talent to be a problem for Tennessee. You also have to keep in mind the Titans have lost six games in a row, which is why Tennessee is in this position in the first place.
Awards Market Ramifications: Doug Pederson could win the Coach of the Year with a win here.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Jaguars in winner pools, though the highly motivated Titans serve as an interesting differentiator option. I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I don’t plan to bet on this game directly, but I was surprised that the Titans were this much of an underdog.
Survivor Pool: If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, I’m not entirely opposed to taking the Jaguars, but I’d prefer to bet against one of the teams that are sitting key players if at all possible.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 55-37
WATCH: Betting Titans vs. Jaguars