Opening Spread: Commanders -2.5
Opening Game Total: 40.5
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (21.5) Browns (19)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders -2.5
- This line remains at Commanders -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders -2.5
- This total opened at 40.5 points
- This total remains at 40.5 points
Commanders: Questionable: RB Antonio Gibson, C Wes Schweitzer, LB Jon Bostic, CB Benjamin St-Juste, S Darrick Forrest, S Kamren Curl.
Browns: Questionable: WR Amari Cooper, LT Jedrick Willis Jr., Edge Jadeveon Clowney, S John Johnson III.
The Commanders Offense vs. Browns Defense
The Commanders offensive line is a below average group. The Browns are one of a few below average defensive fronts in the league that has a premium player. This trench matchup is a relative draw from a macro sense, but Myles Garrett has a major individual advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 7-7-1 against the spread this season
- The Commanders are 5-10 on overs this season
- Carson Wentz is 44-48 against the spread in his career
- Carson Wentz is 43-49 on overs in his career
- Ron Rivera is 96-86-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Ron Rivera is 92-93-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Commanders are scoring 19 points per game, which is 24th in the league
- Washington is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing
- The Commanders are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Carson Wentz is 2-4 as the Commanders starting quarterback this season
- Wentz has been named the starter against the Browns
- Per the Edge, Brian Robinson has run for at least 86 yards rushing in four of his last six games
- Antonio Gibson hasn’t had double-digit carries since November 27th, but he’s had three or more targets in all but one of his 15 games this season
- With Carson Wentz at quarterback Terry McLaurin had a 16.4% target share with a 28.6% air yards share
- With Carson Wentz at quarterback Curtis Samuel had a 21.8% target share with a 15% air yards share
- With Carson Wentz at quarterback Jahan Dotson had a 12.7% target share with a 23.3% air yards share
- With Carson Wentz at quarterback Logan Thomas had a 12% target share with a 12.6% air yards share
- Per TruMedia Terry McLaurin has played 754 snaps on the perimeter and 153 in the slot
- Curtis Samuel has played 170 snaps on the perimeter and 512 in the slot
- Jahan Dotson has played 377 snaps on the perimeter and 145 in the slot
- The Browns have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 21st in the league
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Cleveland has given up the 27th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Cleveland has given up the sixth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers
- The Browns have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
The Browns Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Browns have a top-five level offensive line. The Commanders have a top-10 level defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a notable advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Browns are 7-8 against the spread this season
- The Browns are 8-6-1 on overs this season
- Deshaun Watson is 27-29-2 against the spread in his career
- Deshaun Watson is 26-32 on overs in his career
- Kevin Stefanski is 19-28 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Kevin Stefanski is 24-22-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Browns are scoring 21.5 points per game, which is 14th in the league
- Cleveland is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing
- The Browns are passing on 56% of their plays and running on 44% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- The Browns have been held to 13 or fewer points in each of Deshaun Watson’s last three starts
- In Watson’s debut in Houston, Cleveland scored 27 points, but their offense only accounted for two field goals in that contest
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb is third in the league with 1,344 yards rushing and he’s fourth in rushing touchdowns with 12.
- Kareem Hunt has three or more targets in three of Deshaun Watson’s four games
- Amari Cooper has six or more targets in each of Deshaun Watson’s four games
- Cooper has at least 40 yards receiving in each of those contests, with 58 or more in each of the last two games
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has five or fewer targets in Deshaun Watson’s four games, but Peoples-Jones had a 12-target 114 yards receiving spike against the Bengals
- David Bell has been held below 30 yards receiving in all but one of his 14 games this season
- David Njoku has five or more targets in all three of the games he’s played with Deshaun Watson
- Per TruMedia, Amari Cooper has played 683 snaps on the perimeter and 160 in the slot
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has played 615 snaps on the perimeter and 277 in the slot
- David Bell has played 149 snaps on the perimeter and 308 in the slot
- The Commanders have allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 11th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing per game and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Washington has given up the 14th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Washington has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- The Commanders have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Commanders would be the seventh seed in the NFC if the season ended today, but a loss could put them on the outside looking in entering the final week. The Browns are out of the playoff race and playing for little more than pride.
If You’re Betting on the Commanders
If you’re betting on the Commanders, you are betting on Wentz. Taylor Heinicke has never given me a ton of confidence, but at this point the shift to Wentz is more of a lateral move than an upgrade. On the other side of the ball the strength of the Commanders roster, their defensive front, squares off against the Browns premium offensive line. Most Commanders bets are built around that highly talented front, but in this contest a bet on the Commanders is more of a bet against Watson, who has struggled through his first four games since returning to action. You have two core concerns as a Commanders’ bettor. The first is that Wentz underwhelms, as he often has since his season-ending knee injury years ago. Second is that this is the game where Watson starts to look like himself again.
If You’re Betting on the Browns
In a vacuum, the Browns have a better roster than the Commanders. The Browns have a better quarterback, running backs, tight end, offensive line, and you could argue that they have a better secondary and linebacker group when everyone is healthy. There are, however, some issues with that broad assessment. First is that Watson has been outright bad since returning to action, to the point his offense has scored 13 or fewer points in each of his four games this season. If you’re betting on the Browns, you are hoping for the return of the Texans version of Watson. Key word there is hope, we can’t build a bet around that expectation, even though it’s possible that Watson starts to look like himself in this contest. The Browns run game and premium offensive line square off against an elite Washington front. For Cleveland to exceed expectations on offense, either Watson needs to turn into his former self, or the Browns run game succeeds despite their difficult matchup. Given Cleveland’s offensive volatility, a bet on the Browns could primarily be a bet against Wentz. Cleveland’s defense has underwhelmed for most of this season, but Garrett could have a field day in this matchup.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools. I will rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I lean towards the Browns side, but I haven’t directly bet this game yet.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33