Analysis
1/2/23
4 min read
Monotone Monday Night Football Player Props for Bills vs. Bengals
Every week, this story will provide you with at least one bet I think you should take for Monday night football and an overview of how I see the matchup playing out.
Bet: Stefon Diggs Over 71.5 Yards Receiving
Odds: -115 on MGM
While the public's consensus may be a bit low on Diggs, I think this bet presents an excellent opportunity to buy low on his props. Despite recording only 23 and 60 receiving yards over his last two games, Diggs is still fifth in the NFL with 1325 yards receiving, working in one of the highest-powered NFL offenses.Â
Since D.J. Reader returned from injury, this Bengals team has been very good at stopping the run (fifth in yards per carry allowed), and the Bills aren't a team that is very interested in running anyway.Â
After the last game, Josh Allen made it a point to acknowledge the fact that Diggs only had two targets, and that was something that was going to need to change.
Since starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie went down (who had the lowest completion percentage allowed in the NFL), this Bengals secondary has struggled a bit. Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt don't scare anyone away.
In one of their biggest games of the season, I expect the Bills to rely heavily on their stud wide receiver. The Bengals have struggled against play action this season, and the threat of Allen using his legs should also open up some down-the-field opportunities. Additionally, Diggs has also absolutely destroyed defenses in big moments. I expect him to shine when the lights are the brightest.Â
Since playing on Monday Night Football for the first time in 2016, Stefon Diggs leads the NFL in nearly every major receiving category in Monday games:Â
Receptions (82) - First
Yards Receiving (949) - First
Receiving TDs (12) - First
Receiving 1st Downs (54) - First
Bet: Josh Allen Over 230 Yards Passing +
Joe Burrow Over 250 Yards Passing
Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This Draftkings Same Game Parlay is pretty simple, and I expect both star quarterbacks to air the ball out in tonight's prime-time matchup.
I already talked about the Bengals and their top-rated rush defense, which should really encourage them to pass. Over the last 5 weeks, they have allowed major yards to Tom Brady (312), Deshaun Watson (276), Patrick Mahomes (223), Ryan Tannehill (291), and Kenny Pickett (265). While it's quite surprising that Mahomes didn't cash, that was game script-oriented. Seeing guys like Watson, Pickett, and Tannehill all hitting the over is definitely a huge positive. Josh Allen could potentially hit this over in the first half if he's hot. I'm expecting a good game here.
While the Bills passing defense is actually pretty solid, I don't think the Bengals have much of a choice but to throw the ball. They have one of the most inefficient rushing attacks in football, with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine both looking much stronger in the passing game.
While Joe Burrow struggled against cover-two defense at the beginning of the season, Allen is now second in EPA per dropback against those looks. I was originally going to go with a Ja'Marr Chase bet, but with such a lethal passing attack and so many options to choose from, I sided with the passer. With a 50.5-game total, there should be plenty of offense in this one.
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