Analysis

11/29/22

15 min read

Matthew Hill's NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

SHARE:

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Email
• Copy permalink to clipboard https://www.the33rdteam.com/matthew-hills-week-13-fantasy-football-rankings/ Copied to clipboard

This article features my complete rankings for the week and blurbs highlighting players I have above or below consensus, according to how my rankings match up with the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

My initial rankings are made on my first impressions of the players based on matchups and recent trends. Look for updated rankings and additional player blurbs throughout the week as new information presents itself.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

• Joe Burrow has finished as the overall QB1 in three of the past six weeks. It sounds like Ja’Marr Chase could have played last week, which leads me to believe Chase will not be limited much in his return.
• Trevor Lawrence has finished as a QB1 in five of the last six weeks and gets Detroit in Week 13. He’s squarely in my top 10 and has top-five upside in a projected shootout.
• Derek Carr has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games and gets the Chargers at home. The game is projected as Week 13's third-highest total. His early ECR is several spots too low.
• I understand it's easy to label Mike White as a ‘flash in the pan” after his dismantling the Bears' defense, which saw him throw for 315 yards with three touchdowns. However, he has done it before. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns last year in a shootout with the Bengals. His other three starts last season were far less impressive (vs. New England, Indianapolis and Buffalo), but I am willing to chalk that up to him losing confidence against three of the league's top defenses. I like White’s chances to finish as a strong QB2 with QB1 upside against a Vikings defense that just allowed Mac Jones to pass for 382 yards.
• I was on board last week with the trendy Taylor Heinicke sleeper pick as he took on the vulnerable Falcons secondary. Unfortunately for my Heinicke/Terry McLaurin stacks, Washington seemed content to pound the ball to the tune of 37 combined carries for 176 yards. I see Pittsburgh as more likely to let Kenny Pickett attack the Falcons' defense this week.

Top 50 Running Backs

• Rachaad White saw heavy volume in his first game without Leonard Fournette, logging 14 carries and catching all nine of his targets. New Orleans has given up more than 90 yards to Najee Harris, Kenyan Drake and Eno Benjamin in recent weeks. His early ECR of RB15 is several spots too low. *UPDATE* Leonard Fournette returned to full practices this week and is expected to play. Rachaad White slides from borderline RB1 status to more of a low-end RB/Flex until we see how touches are distributed going forward.
• Chicago looked rough in Justin Field’s absence. Even with the Bears only managing 10 points, David Montgomery was a volume-fueled, low-end RB2. Montgomery has combined for 37 touches the past two games, including six receptions, and will be another high-floor play this week against Green Bay's rush defense, which gave up 143 yards rushing to Miles Sanders. 
• Jamaal Williams has not been targeted since Week 8 and has averaged 63 rushing yards during his past three games. We all know about his nose for the end zone, but if he is not scoring multiple touchdowns, he does not have the yardage totals or receiving role needed for boom weeks. Detroit/Jacksonville does have one of the week’s highest totals, so Williams should get the opportunity for a multi-score game. I just feel his early ECR as a borderline RB1 is a little high. 
• Isiah Pacheco’s early consensus ranking of RB22 does not make sense to me. Pacheco has seen his snap share rise from 22% in Week 9 to 56% last week. He has become the preferred option near the goal line the past three weeks including a league-high 12 in Week 12, with five coming within the five-yard-line. At $5,700 on Draftkings, rostering Pacheco is an inexpensive way to get plenty of touches in the slate’s highest total game. 
• Kyren Williams, not Cam Akers, seemed to be the primary benefactor of Darrell Henderson’s vacated touches. Williams out-touched Akers 14 to eight and was the preferred back in passing situations. Williams has seen his touches increase each of the past three weeks (four, eight, 14). While a committee approach should remain, it seems likely Williams will be heading the committee in a plus matchup vs Seattle.

Top 65 Wide Receivers

• Zay Jones has 19 receptions on 28 targets in the past two games and gets Detroit next. Christian Kirk has received the headlines, but Jones has been nearly as impressive, bringing in at least five catches in six of 10 games. 
• No fantasy manager is excited to start anyone in a Broncos uniform, but with Jerry Jeudy likely out this week, Denver’s passing attack seems like it could be consolidated. Kendall Hinton has snap shares of 97, 87 and 90% in the past three games and saw nine targets last week. Courtland Sutton has been a high-floor play, bringing in roughly five receptions each of the past three weeks for yardage totals of 66, 80 and 75. Denver will need to attack Baltimore through the air if they are going to compete with the Ravens, making Sutton a low-end WR2 and Hinton a deep-league flex. 
• At some point, the fantasy community needs to accept Nico Collins has surpassed Brandin Cooks as Houston’s WR1. In the past three weeks, Collins has more targets (26 to 18) and receptions (16 to 12) than Cooks. The ceilings are capped for both in Houston’s offense, but Collins continues to be the better value and deserving of a higher ranking. *UPDATE* Brandin Cooks was surprisingly declared out on Friday, bumping Nico Collins into solid WR3 status and putting Chis Moore on the deep Flex radar.
• Treylon Burks seems poised to build off of his breakout performance. In the past two weeks, he has 181 yards on 11 receptions and gets an Eagles defense that has given up 313 yards on 18 receptions to opposing WR1’s the past three weeks. His WR36 ECR seems like his floor. 
• I get the Rams are a bit of a mess right now but so is Seattle's defense. Van Jefferson has stepped into the role of the go-to receiver with Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson gone. However, the overall dysfunction of the Rams' offense has him undervalued, especially this week. Jefferson turned his seven targets into three catches for 29 yards and a score in Week 12. While the yardage total was not impressive, the seven targets are encouraging enough to have him ranked several spots above consensus. 
• Olamide Zaccheaus saw eight targets in Week 12, which was double what Drake London received in the low-volume Falcon passing attack. Zaccheaus turned those eight targets into five receptions for 91 yards. While I understand no one is excited to start a Falcons receiver, Zaccheus is locked into a high snap share, has some value in deep leagues and has a premium matchup against Pittsburgh. His early ECR is several spots too low. 
• Elijah Moore only saw two targets in New York’s Week 12 blowout win, but he made them count. Moore turned his two targets into two receptions for 64 yards and a score. His ECR of WR60 is too low, as is his $3,700 price tag of Draftkings. This seems like an instance of wanting to get ahead of the breakout instead of reacting to it. I have him well ahead of consensus in what could be a high-scoring game at Minnesota. 
• While Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones should be popular plays in Deshaun Watson’s return to the field (and return to Houston), David Bell’s expanding role has been largely overlooked. After totaling 11 targets through Week 8, Bell now has at least five targets each of the past three weeks. He is ranked just outside my top 65. If you roster him, you probably are not playing him unless you're desperate, but he is worth keeping an eye on to see if his role continues to grow.

Top 25 Tight Ends

• David Njoku saw his snaps increase from 35% in his first week back from injury to 80% in Week 12. He saw seven targets and brought in five with a touchdown. Look for him to be a focal point in Watson’s return, making him a locked-in TE1 with a top-three upside. *UPDATE* Njoku has been declared out with a knee injury. Harrison Bryant becomes a low-end TE2 and an interesting, low-price DFS dart throw.
• In the past three weeks, Foster Moreau has finished as a top-8 overall tight end twice and has the Chargers, in a game with a 51-point total, on tap. Moreau is a top-10 option this week.
• Hayden Hurst has finished as a TE2 or better each of the past five weeks. He saw nine targets last week and should play a key role in the Chiefs/Bengals rematch. 
• Jordan Akins has quietly turned in a pair of top-9 tight end finishes the past three weeks and Houston should have to air it out often in a game where they are seven-point underdogs. 

WATCH: Week 13 Waiver Wire Show

---

Matthew Hill

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram

Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.