Betting
9/18/22
12 min read
LIVE Blog - Week 2 Fantasy/Betting/DFS Updates
"The biggest advantage the Chiefs have, aside from Mahomes, is Andy Reid’s aggressive play calling. With the overall divisional strength, the play calling of Kansas City should set them apart" - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 8:28 EST
"After watching the entire Broncos- Texans game, I can confidently say that the Broncos play calling is familiar to Russell Wilson, in the worst way possible. Conservative play calling, the complete antithesis of what you want for DFS stacks and for manager fantasy leagues." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 7:37 EST
"Nick Chubb was the only RB to go for over 30 points today, he was the key to this slate and the difference maker as there were 10+ WR’s seeing massive point totals." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 7:02 EST
"Ultimately, a renewed receiving core and a hefty volume of passes seem to be keeping Carson Wentz afloat. Rookie Jahan Dotson and veteran Curtis Samuel have done their fair share alongside Terry McLaurin. Wentz has thrown 40+ passes in each game. The Commanders also face the Eagles and Cowboys next. Wentz is the top passing option if you need a new passer or just want some depth." -Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) - 6:28 EST
"Jimmy Garoppolo offers a stable floor for the SF pass catchers, and he's been sneaky efficient as a 49er, with a higher yards per pass attempt than Patrick Mahomes from 2019-2021" - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 6:25 EST
"This makes them [49ers] a stackable team and with the return of Kittle could be a cheap one at that. We will not see them on the main slate until Week 5 in Carolina, and that gives us plenty of data to see who is getting targeted most frequently. Deebo Samuel already got a bump for what his role will be rushing without Elijah Mitchell and now that becomes even more desirable without Lance." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 5:58 EST
"49ers start with a pretty dominant drive, mixing in Tyrion Davis-Price with Jeff Wilson. But they don't finish, settle for three. Still, best drive of the season for San Fran to this point." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 4:55 EST
"I talk all the time about double stacking offenses that are highly consolidated. I should have made some Tua-Waddle-Hill double stacks in DFS this week. If you told me Tua surpassed 30 fantasy points, I would tell you that both Hill and Waddlw most likely went off. Major mistake on my end, a lesson learned. Consolidated target trees are a double stackers best friend in DFS" -Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 4:15 EST
"Tua’s flashing his fantasy upside big-time with 429 yards and 5 TDs. He's not a good start next week against Buffalo, but two consecutive games against the Bengals and Jets makes him an intriguing future start." -Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 4:04 EST
"Don't see how James Robinson isn't in starting lineups going forward. Looks fully recovered from his injury to the tune of 14+ carries and another TD through 3 quarters. He's at least an RB2." - Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 2:55 p.m. EST.
"The Jaguars have shades of last year’s Packers, where the offense flows through 2 RBs and 1 WR. James Robinson dominated the carries, Travis Etienne is a weapon in the screen game, and Christian Kirk is the clear 1st read on a significant amount of their passing plays."- Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 2:54 p.m. EST.
"The Commanders CANNOT hold back the DET defensive line. Unreal." - Chris Farley (@FarleyBets) 2:25 p.m. EST.
Live Week 2 Bets
"Just took Colts +13 on DK Sportsbook at -115." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 2:03 p.m. EST.
"A live bet on the Colts is a good idea. That's 14 points of line value, they're at +10.5 at most books. And this is what they do— flail and come back. Commanders too. You can get them at +14.5. That's gold, win or lose." - Chris Farley (@FarleyBets) 1:59 p.m. EST.
Week 2 First Half Action
"The Ravens are keying Tyreek Hill, and as a result, we are seeing a lot of Jaylen Waddle. Waddle was getting guarded by LB Patrick Queen on the big play." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 1:47 p.m. EST.
"It's time consensus begins to rank Amon-Ra St. Brown like a consistent Top-10 fantasy WR. I had him WR10 for the week, and I may have been too low. The usage is high-end WR1 over his past 8 games. Already 71 of the Goff's 84 passing yards to Amon-Ra, along with the TD." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 1:41 p.m. EST.
"Only one drive in, but Saints OLine has overwhelmed the Bucs DLine. Averaged nearly 10 YPC on the opening drive with Mark Ingram and Taysom Hill. Tony Jones was the main receiving back on that first drive." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 1:17 p.m. EST.
Final Bets and Lineup Changes
"Yahoo's $20 DFS Contest is tracking for major overlay. Only 21,000 of 29,000 entries filled with under 20 minutes remaining." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 12:41 p.m. EST.
"With Jameis Winston reportedly in pain due to a back injury (Glazer), suddenly Taysom Hill looks like a better start. Could see NOLA opting for more runs with him at QB, especially with Kamara out as well." - Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 12:37 p.m. EST.
"Putting Tom Brady into my DFS 150-max pool. With Julio out, the target tree should be really tight. Pick 2 of Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Leonard Fournette. It's a tough matchup, with a depleted OLine and WR core. But, it's still Tom Brady, and if Brady hits in DFS, it's almost certainly with 2 of those 3. Nobody else is playing Brady this week, so your lineups will be unique too." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 12:31 p.m. EST.
Live Blog - Ryan Reynolds' Last-Minute Betting Updates
"Seattle Safety Jamal Adams has been placed on injured reserve. 49ers tight end George Kittle put in a limited practice on Friday, making him a true game-time decision at this juncture. Rain and roughly 14 mph winds are expected in San Francisco. Trey Lance and the 49ers offense did not play well in significant weather conditions in Chicago last week. The weather component makes me less likely to play San Francisco in survivor this week, especially with some of the other strong options on the board." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:09 p.m. EST.
Texans at Broncos
"KJ Hamler is going to miss this contest. While that doesn’t move the needle in an ATS aspect, Hamler’s absence narrows targets in Denver, and it could sneakily benefit Broncos tight end Albert Okwuegbunam the most. Broncos right guard Quinn Meinerz is another Bronco that will now miss this contest. Texans center Justin Britt will miss this contest for personal reasons. I value center play more than most, as they are essentially the quarterback of the offensive line. Britt’s absence has me more likely to take the Broncos in a tournament entry and survivor than I was earlier this week."- Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:08 p.m. EST.
Bengals at Cowboys
"Dallas LG Conner McGovern is now out, adding yet another layer of uncertainty to the already struggling Cowboys offensive line. This is a massive game for the Cowboys' offensive coaching staff. Dallas is dealing with significant downgrades at every position group except running back and tight end."- Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:07 p.m. EST.
Panthers at Giants
"New York’s starting Edge duo of Azeez Ojulari (Doubtful) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (now officially out) greatly reduce the capability of the Giants front. Giants CB Aaron Robinson is out. I’ve leaned towards the Panthers side all week, and now I’ll be locking them into at least one of my ATS tournament entries." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:06 p.m. EST.
Commanders at Lions
"Lions Center Frank Ragnow has been ruled out and now guard Jonah Jackson has joined him. That’s a major blow to the Lions high-end offensive line, especially in this matchup as Washington has one of the better defensive interiors in the league.
On the Washington front, DT Jonathan Allen landed on the injury report late with a groin injury. If Allen misses this contest or is otherwise limited, that significantly reduces that high-end Washington interior we just discussed. Ragnow and Johnsons’ absences are still a major negative for the Lions, but that blow will be softened some if Allen is out or limited." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:05 p.m. EST.
Colts at Jaguars
WR Michael Pittman and rookie Alec Pierce have been ruled out. This leaves the Colts extraordinarily thin at wide receiver, now headlined by Parris Campbell. The Colts wide receiver group has been reduced to the point it’s a genuine negative for me from a betting aspect. Colts LB Shaquille Leonard has been ruled out, while CB Kenny Moore and DT DeForest Buckner remain listed on the injury report as questionable. Three of the Colts' five best defenders, if not their best three, are either out or banged up.
Right now the forecast in Jacksonville is rain with roughly 12 MPH winds. That isn’t quite enough wind for me to be concerned. But those conditions are less than ideal for Matt Ryan specifically. These are all positives for the Jaguars, who I will now deploy in at least one of my ATS tournaments as +4 home underdogs." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:04 p.m. EST.
"Piggybacking off of the talk about Saints running back situation, you can be creative with your lineup and cram Taysom in at QB to open up the budget for higher value plays while maintaining some modicum of a ceiling in the QB slot. High risk but could be pretty unique." - Mike Bobal (@squarededgemike) 12:03 p.m. EST.
"Agree with Max; I think Smith’s absence forces the Bucs to go to the quick, short passing game. I think that also benefits Russell Gage with Godwin and Julio out. Additionally, Smith being out makes the Bucs significantly worse at LT, LG, and C than they were the last time these two teams played. So I'm not going to avoid taking the Bucs in ATS pools." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 12:02 p.m. EST.
Maxx Forde's Fantasy Breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
"With Donavan Smith out along with the other OL starters lost in the preseason, I expect the Bucs to try to rely on the quick passing game when throwing, and I think we see a bit more run. With Chris Godwin and Julio Jones out and Mike Evans receiving the Marshon Lattimore treatment, this all leads to a game where we see a lot of opportunities for Leonard Fournette in both facets of the game.
If there is any apprehension in Tampa about giving Fournette a major workload due to his hamstring, we may see a little more Rachaad White too. Fire up Fournette (of course you're already doing so in seasonal leagues) but if you're in need of something truly boom or bust, take a flier on White as well." - Maxx Forde (@maxxforde) - 12:00 p.m. EST.
Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins Inactive for Week 2
"It's an ugly split between Kenyan, Mike Davis, and then Lamar when they want to use him that way." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 11:45 a.m. EST.
"Drake saw 59% snaps, 43% routes. I still only have Drake ranked as RB40 though, not a start if you can help it." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:45 a.m. EST.
"I'm in a lot of survivor pools, so I used the Ravens in four of them last week. Among those four entries, I'm going to play the Rams once, the Broncos once, and the Packers twice. My primary goal is to give myself different options long term. I'm going to use Green Bay twice because their next best insertion point is Week 5 against the Giants in London." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 11:41 a.m. EST.
"New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (ribs) is out. Mark Ingram is active, but has been limited in practice all week. I always try to avoid starting any RB against the Tampa defense anyway. Taysom Hill is a solid start wherever he is TE eligible, with the RB situation the way it is I have Hill as a lock to get at least 5 carries, double-digit touches are within the range of outcomes, and he gets opportunities in the red zone." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:37 a.m. EST.
"I think America’s three-game teaser wins today: Rams, Packers, Broncos. Similarly, I'm not going to get cute in survivor this week; those will be the three teams I use this week." - Ryan Reynolds (@Ryan ReynoldsNFL) 11:32 a.m. EST.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Julio Jones Inactive for Week 2
"Julio Jones (knee) is out; Russell Gage becomes a Flex play." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:31 a.m. EST.
"TE/FB Kylen Granson had 7 targets last week; he's the sneaky start with Pittman and Pierce out." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:21 a.m. EST.
"Without Michael Pittman, Ashton Dulin and Parris Campbell are the WR's to get. Dulin will likely be the target down the field, and Campbell will be the short-intermediate route run. Both are viable in DFS." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 11:14 a.m. EST.
"I've shifted my Week 2 Rankings slightly, with D'Andre Swift dropping just behind Antonio Gibson. Concerns over workload for Swift with the ankle injury, and Gibson had elite usage in Week 1 and is explosive with the ball in his hands." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 11:07 a.m. EST.
