Analysis

9/14/23

8 min read

Kev Wheeler’s 2023 NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

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Below are my 2023 Week 2 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. Included are my top 32 quarterbacks, top 50 running backs, top 70 wide receivers and top 24 tight ends rankings. These rankings are submitted to two different rankings competitions, one with PPR scoring and the other Half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

Week 1 can be deceiving; we should certainly use the new information to refine our process, but ultimately, it is just one data point to use for the next five or six weeks. 

Please join our Free Discord for updates and discussion, and you can let me know where you think I’m getting it wrong; it could help me improve my process. 

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield was able to look like a competent NFL quarterback against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, expect Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to have a tremendous Week 2 as they host the Vikings on Thursday night. 

Trevor Lawrence should find himself in a shoot-out this week with the Kansas City Chiefs coming to Jacksonville. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, he now has an elite wide receiver corps that should be able to take advantage of a mediocre Chiefs' secondary. 

Expect Justin Herbert just to shred a Tennessee Titans secondary that allowed over 300 passing yards to Derek Carr in Week 1. It appears as though Austin Ekeler could also be out for Week 2, leading to more passing plays being called. 

Running Backs

The Chicago Bears allowed the Green Bay Packers running backs to catch 11 passes for 80 yards in Week 1, expect Bijan Robinson to abuse the Bears in the passing game in Week 2. 

With a 46 percent route rate and 61 percent of the team's RB rush attempts, Dameon Pierce won’t amount to much in this Houston Texans offense.

James Cook dominated the Buffalo Bills backfield in Week 1 with 61 percent of the snaps, 67 percent of the rush attempts, 50 percent route participation, and a 15 percent target share. Expect a big receiving day against a Las Vegas Raiders team that allowed 10 receptions to the Denver Broncos running backs last week. 

Rashaad Penny was the third-most dropped RB in fantasy this week. With  Kenneth Gainwell missing Week 2 due to a rib injury, expect Penny to see some action and be at least a flex-worthy starter. Knowing how much variance there is in football, it would not be shocking to see Penny or D'Andre Swift finish the week as a top-10 RB. 

Raheem Mostert was added to the injury report with a knee injury. It's unclear how severe it is. If he is limited or out against the Patriots, the team will look to rookie De'Von Achane and Salvon Ahmed to take over in his absence.

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins gave us a complete goose egg (0) in Week 1 but had the fourth-most Air Yards. Expect him to bounce back just like DeVonta Smith did last season. 

In Week 1, we had three rookies finish with over 30 percent of their teams' target share: Zay Flowers (47.6 percent), Puka Nacua (40.5 percent), Bijan Robinson (33.3 percent). We also had two rookies finish with over 30 percent of their teams' Air Yards: Puka Nacua (34.5 percent) and Jayden Reed (33.8 percent). 

Nacua was the most added WR this week, so expect three catches for 32 yards in Week 2. Hopefully, you catch the sarcasm in this, but we shouldn’t be starting him over established veterans we drafted in the first few rounds. 

DeAndre Hopkins turned 13 targets into seven catches for 65 yards against the Saints in Week 1, and he faces a very poor Chargers defense in Week 2. 

Tight Ends

Week 1 was very strange as far as how tight ends were used:

TE Wk1 Route%

92% Dallas Goedert
91% Durham Smythe
91% Zach Ertz
91% Kyle Pitts
91% Dalton Schultz
89% Evan Engram
88% Cole Kmet
82% Noah Gray
82% Juwan Johnson
80% Luke Musgrave
79% Tyler Higbee
78% Dawson Knox
78% Logan Thomas
77% Isaiah Likely
77% TJ Hockenson

— zwk (@ZWKfootball) September 12, 2023

Highest target shares (percentage) among tight ends in Week 1: Zach Ertz, 33.3; Jake Ferguson, 28.0; Logan Thomas, 27.6; Hayden Hurst, 22.6; George Kittle, 21.4; T.J. Hockenson, 20.5; Cole Kmet, 19.4; Darren Waller, 17.2; Kyle Pitts, 16.7; Kylen Granson, 16.2.

Players who were tackled at the 1-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive in Week 1:

QB: Anthony Richardson, Matthew Stafford

RB: Austin Ekeler, A.J. Dillon, Kyren Williams, Deon Jackson

WR: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Kadarius Toney

Updates

We will be available in the 33rd team Discord on Sunday mornings from 11 a.m. EST until kick-off to answer any last-minute start-sit questions. I will be finalizing my rankings and setting my line-ups as well, so you may want to post your questions early. 

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.