Betting
9/30/22
6 min read
Josh Larky's Week 4 Player Props
Below, you'll find 23 Week 4 player props that I have already hit myself. For each prop, I outline which sportsbook the line is from, as well as the reasoning behind taking the line.
If you want even more props after reading this article, I recommend checking out our Player Prop Happy Hour show, where The 33rd Team's own Ryan Reynolds, Ben Wolbransky, and myself each bring five props (different from the ones listed below) to the table. Within about 15 minutes, you'll have 15 props you can hit. Last week, we went 14-2 on our selections.
Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin to have MORE Total Yards than Ezekiel Elliott (+170 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Elliott has 49, 49, and 75 total yards in his three games this season.
- McLaurin has 58, 82, and 102 total yards in his three games this season.
- If anything, McLaurin looks like he has a slight edge, yet +170 is only 37% implied probability of hitting.
Courtland Sutton
Sutton OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Sutton has been over this number all three games this year.
- He's averaging over nine targets and 118 air yards per game, with at least seven targets and 100 air yards in all of them.
- The Raiders are a Bottom-10 pass defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Sutton to have MORE Receptions than Davante Adams (+225 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Adams has been inconsistent since joining the Raiders, with ten, two, and five receptions.
- Sutton has logged four, seven, and eight receptions this season.
- I expect Adams to have more, but +225 implies only a 31% chance of this hitting, when I'd put that number closer to 40%.
Travis Etienne
Etienne OVER 46.5 total yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Etienne has been over this number all three games.
- JAX now goes on the road to Philadelphia, where they are roughly touchdown underdogs. They'll need to pass in this game, and Etienne's skill set is more aligned with this type of game environment than James Robinson.
Etienne Anytime Touchdown (+330 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Etienne has eight combined red zone opportunities already on the season.
Chris Olave
Olave to have 70+ Receiving Yards (+168 on FanDuel Sportsbook), 80+ Receiving Yards (+240 on FD), 90+ Receiving Yards (+350 on FD), 100+ Receiving Yards (+490 on FD), 110+ Receiving Yards (+680 on FD)
- Andy Dalton is a minimal downgrade from Jameis Winston.
- The Vikings' secondary has struggled this season.
- Olave has 13 targets in back-to-back games, and now Michael Thomas has been ruled OUT.
Zay Jones
Jones Anytime Touchdown (+425 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Like with Etienne, I just want to buy in on this much improved JAX offense.
- Zay has six red zone targets (four of those in the end zone), along with a goal line rush attempt on the season.
- A 19% implied chance (+425) of scoring a TD is too low based on his usage.
DeVonta Smith
Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions (+120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Smith has seven and eight receptions in back-to-back games.
- I expect this game to go over it's 45 point total, and to feature lots of passing on both ends.
George Pickens
Pickens UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- After back-to-back games of three targets and only one reception in each contest, Pickens saw seven targets on Thursday Night Football, hauling in three of them.
- With his high depth of target, and Mitchell Trubisky's low catchable target rate, Pickens likely needs another seven targets in Week 4 to hit the over here.
- This should be a 50/50 line, but instead is +135.
Leonard Floyd
Floyd OVER 0.25 Sacks (+310 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 10.5 sacks in 2020, 9.5 sacks in 2021.
- No sacks yet in 2022, but already three hits on the QB.
- Star 49ers lineman Trent Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3.
- Jimmy Garoppolo was sacked four times in Week 3.
- The Rams should feast against a well below average 49ers offensive line.
- This line should be around +170 according to our Head of Betting, Ryan Reynolds, who is a sharper defensive mind than I am. When I showed him the line, he immediately hit it, too.
Drake London
London OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- London has gone over this number in all three games this year.
- He's averaging over eight targets and over 90 air yards per game.
- The Browns have given up the seventh most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, via our flagship tool, The Edge.
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett OVER 210.5 Passing Yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brissett now has back-to-back games with 220 or more passing yards.
- He is playing above average football at the QB position, and now gets the Falcons' mediocre secondary.
Dameon Pierce
Pierce OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- The Chargers allow the fifth most yards per carry to opposing backs (5.3), via The Edge.
- In his two games as the starter, Pierce has stat lines of 15-69 and 20-80 on the ground.
Treylon Burks
Burks OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Burks' route participation has gone up each week: 38%, 77%, 96%.
- While he failed to reach this number for the first time in Week 3, the usage indicates a return to his Week 1/Week 2 stat lines, at least.
- The Colts allow 2.5 yards per carry to opposing backs, by far the lowest in the NFL, so the Titans will need to pass to stay in this game.
Burks Anytime Touchdown (+320 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Burks has a red zone and an end zone target already on the season.
- He's a big play threat who should have ample opportunity to break free from the Colts' zone defense.
Alec Pierce
Pierce OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Pierce suffered a concussion in Week 1.
- He returned in Week 3, putting up three catches for 61 yards on five targets.
- He only ran 20 routes in Week 3.
- The routes should tick up in Week 4, and he can hit this over on one play.
Elijah Moore
Moore to have MORE Receptions than Diontae Johnson (+360 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- While I expect Diontae to have more receptions than Moore, +360 suggests only a 22% chance of this happening, and I'd put it closer to a 30% chance.
Moore to have MORE Total Yards than Najee Harris (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Najee Harris total yards by week
Week 1: 26
Week 2: 89
Week 3: 61On @DraftKings Sportsbook, Elijah Moore is +400 in the total yards head-to-head against Najee Harris in Week 4
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— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) September 30, 2022
Breece Hall
Hall OVER 60.5 Total Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Hall has gone over this number in two of three games.
- The one time he didn't reach this number, he had 60 total yards.
- Joe Flacco was dropping back over 50 times per game, and Zach Wilson returning from a serious knee injury will likely be eased back into action with a more run-heavy game plan.
- Hall ran a 4.39 40-time, and can break a big play at any moment.
