Analysis
12/5/22
3 min read
Josh Larky's Monday Night Football Player Props for Saints vs. Buccaneers
Below, you’ll find five Monday Night Football player props I’ve put my money on. For each prop, you’ll get the line, the sportsbook and why I chose to take the line.
You’ll also notice with each prop, I provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. A +350 prop implies a 22% chance of the event happening, so if I’m taking that line, I expect it to hit more than 22% of the time.
Tom Brady UNDER 0.5 Interceptions [-120 (55%) on Bet365]
- Brady has minimized mistakes this season. He has just two interceptions across 11 games this season.
- The Saints have intercepted a pass in just two of 12 games this season.
Chris Olave OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards [-110 (52%) on Bet365]
- Olave has been OVER this number in seven of 11 games this season.
- He is averaging 75 receiving yards per game.
- Olave is averaging eight targets, five catches, and 69 yards per game with Andy Dalton this season.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 11 WRs in 11 games to go OVER this number, per The Edge.
- Both starting safeties on the Buccaneers are DOUBTFUL for this contest.
Olave MOST Receiving Yards Of Game [+350 (22%) on FanDuel]
- Olave is the clear WR1 on the Saints, while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin share targets with each other.
- Evans and Godwin both have receiving props within 10 yards of Olave.
- No other player is a serious threat outside these three, as Jarvis Landry has the next-highest receiving prop, at 39.5 yards.
- Both starting safeties on the Buccaneers are Doubtful for this contest.
Cameron Brate UNDER 20.5 Receiving Yards [-110 (52%) on DraftKings]
- Brate has been under this number in five of seven games this year.
- He has three catches for 23 total yards since returning from injury in Week 10.
- Brate's average target depth has been less than five yards in both games since returning from injury.
BONUS: Adam Trautman Anytime Touchdown [+550 (15%) on Bet365]
- Juwan Johnson had five TDs in five games (Week 7 to Week 11) before getting injured in Week 12.
- Johnson is OUT for Week 13, so Trautman will be the full-time starting TE for the Saints.
- Trautman has a higher yards per route run (1.71) than Johnson this season (1.24), per The Edge.
- I'm unsure of what role Trautman will have in this game, but I believe it's worth sprinkling a portion of a unit on Trautman to score in this contest, on the off chance he gets Johnson's receiving role. Trautman has been efficient as a receiver this year, so I'd say it's likely he takes on at least most of that role.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these five Monday Night Football player props. As always, please bet responsibly.
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