Analysis
11/12/23
3 min read
Fantasy Football Outlook for Josh Dobbs, Ty Chandler After Week 10 Breakout
The Minnesota Vikings have a new identity for the second half of the 2023 NFL season and find themselves in the thick of the wild-card race. For fantasy purposes, QB Joshua Dobbs and RB Ty Chandler are priority additions ahead of Week 11.
We’ll quickly dive into their usage and stats against the New Orleans Saints in Week 10.
Joshua Dobbs is a Fantasy QB1
The Kirk Cousins Achilles injury appeared catastrophic for the fantasy values of all Vikings skill players. Fifth-round rookie QB (and five-year player at BYU) Jaren Hall was the unfortunate heir to an offense that threw for more than 325 passing yards in four of its first seven games.
Insert Dobbs.
In Week 9, he came in after Hall suffered a concussion on the Vikings' second drive. From there, Dobbs led a comeback, throwing for 158 yards and two touchdowns while running for 66 yards and another score on seven carries. The final damage was 27 fantasy points.
This Saints defense had yet to allow a 260 passing-yard performance all season before Dobbs completed 23 of 34 passes (68 percent) for 268 yards and a touchdown. He rushed eight times for 44 yards and another score, totaling 25 fantasy points.
Since Week 2, Dobbs is the QB7 (20.1) in fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen (25.6), Jalen Hurts (25.6), C.J. Stroud (21.5), Lamar Jackson (21.2), Patrick Mahomes (20.4) and Cousins (20.2).
Dobbs has been without Justin Jefferson for the past two games. Getting back one of the five biggest difference-makers at any offensive skill position will help Dobbs’ fantasy output.
Among quarterbacks, only Jackson has more rushing yards in 2023 than Dobbs. Also, it’s tough to see the Vikings move away from Dobbs in the next seven weeks. For the rest of the season, think of Dobbs as a lower-end fantasy QB1, similar to Sam Howell, Stroud and Dak Prescott.
Ty Chandler Has Fantasy RB2 Upside
Alexander Mattison has failed to capitalize on his opportunities this season, rushing 130 times at only 3.5 yards per carry. He had yet to record a rushing touchdown despite 10 red zone carries and seven goal-line carries.
As a receiver, he’s made several costly drops, and his 67 percent catch rate reflects this — the league average for running backs is 78 percent.
Mattison was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion in the third quarter but was already ceding major work to Chandler. Through the first half, Chanler had out-carried Mattison 5-4 and out-gained him 31-6, too.
Mattison was the preferred pass-catching back, running 16 routes to Chandler’s six. Every concussed offensive player not named Brock Purdy has missed at least one contest post-concussion in 2023.
In the second half, Chandler ran seven routes to Mattison’s three and Kene Nwangwu’s one. With a Week 11 date against a Denver Broncos run defense allowing a league-high 33.6 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs at a league-high 5.6 yards per carry, Chandler can crush his lead back audition in Mattison’s absence.
The Broncos also allow the fourth-most targets (7.6) and the third-most yards (49) per game to running backs.
Chandler is on the fantasy RB2 radar ahead of Week 11 and should be a priority waiver claim in all formats. He has a realistic shot at becoming the lead back in a surprisingly competent Vikings offense.
If you’re a contending team with strong starting running back options, consider trading away a player like Gus Edwards for a chance at Chandler’s upside.
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