Analysis
7/31/23
4 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: Outlook for Ravens WR Rashod Bateman
The Baltimore Ravens' third-year, No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman enters 2023 with a WR50 and 10.10 average draft position (ADP) after consecutive seasons derailed by injury.
Savvy drafters should exploit a fearful market by buying into Bateman’s promising sophomore production profile, overall offensive environment with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and increased pass-heavy game scripts resulting from a string of high-quality offensive opponents.
Bateman's Fantasy Outlook
Health, Past Performance
Bateman suffered a Grade 2 inguinal groin strain in early August 2021, spending Weeks 1-5 on injured reserve before reaggravating it in Week 9. Although he played through the second injury, the season was a wash.
Bateman bounced back in early 2022, igniting for a white-hot start in Weeks 1-3. He ranked top three in yards per route run (3.1, YPRR), yards per target (14.1) and per reception (28.3), average depth of target (17.6 aDot), broken and missed tackles forced per reception (37.5 percent) and yards after the catch per reception (14.88) among NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets.
More injury trouble struck in Week 4 when he suffered a Lisfranc injury. Bateman attempted to play through the pain in Weeks 7-8, but he was eventually shut down for the season.
Bateman’s exceptional efficiency hardly decreased while playing hurt. The table below ranks, in parentheses, Bateman’s 2022 receiving data among 120 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 targets, per SportsInfoSolutions.
| TPRR | YPRR | Yd/Tgt | Yd/Rec | aDot | Bkn + MTF/Rec | YAC/Rec |
| 24.1% (29th) | 2.5 (14th) | 10.2 (t-8th) | 19.0 (3rd) | 13.1 (t-18) | 33.3% (4th) | 8.87 (3rd) |
TPRR denotes targets per route run rate, Bken + MTF/Rec means broken and missed tackles forced per reception, YAC/Rec denotes yards after the catch per reception
Monken’s Offensive Scheme
As detailed in the "4 Teams Expected to Run, Pass More in 2023" piece, Monken’s offensive philosophies signal a sharp increase in passing rate, volume and efficiency for Baltimore’s offense. Following his fruitful NFL run, Monken spent three seasons (2020-2022) as Georgia’s offensive coordinator, guiding the Bulldogs to College Football Playoff National Championship wins in 2021 and 2022, producing a top-five finish in yards from scrimmage per game (501.2) last season.
Player-turned-reporter James Jones recently shared a quote from Monken on FS1, stating, “[w]e are taking Lamar “Action” Jackson back to Louisville.” Lamar Jackson tallied 509 dropbacks in 2017, the seventh most among Power 5 quarterbacks while at Louisville.
Impending Shootouts
AFC North offenses should be much improved this season, with Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson entering his first entire season in Cleveland and Pittsburgh Steelers sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett surrounded by a burgeoning pass-catching group.
The Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins comprise a highly-flying offensive septet who will help drive Baltimore’s pace throughout the year; five of seven teams ranked top 12 in offensive yards per game, with Seattle holding down the No. 13 spot.
Current, Future Health
Bateman resides on the Active/physically unable to perform (PUP) list after receiving an early June unexpected cortisone injection, putting Bateman’s ADP on shaky footing. The most likely cause for the injection stems from the regularly scheduled hardware removal process and ensuing ramp-up period.
As DPT Jeff Mueller explains, “[w]hen hardware is removed, bone growth occurs to fill the hole and the bone is temporarily in a weakened state until it fully heals. Mostly likely was irritated due to [ramp-up] in loading/running because the bone is in this state.”
Bateman landing on Active/PUP is a good sign. He can participate in non-practice team activities and be removed from the list anytime. The Active/PUP list differs from the Reserve/PUP list and injured reserve list in that the latter two require the player to miss four regular season games.
Prognostication
Wide receivers frequently experience production dips in the season immediately following a Lisfranc repair. However, Mueller still projects Bateman to be “100% [sic]” for Week 1, and fellow DPT Adam Hutchison projects Bateman for 13.5 games played. Given Bateman’s double-digit ADP, the injury concerns should not be considered prohibitive for such a high-ceiling player.
Bateman is a must-draft player as long as his ADP remains outside the position’s top 36. His exceptional efficiency and tackle-breaking talents are ready-made for Monken’s pass-happy scheme. Expect Jackson to establish career-high passing numbers with Bateman as his No. 1 wide receiver.
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