Betting

10/6/22

7 min read

Exploitable Week 5 Player Picks on Underdog and PrizePicks

By Josh Larky

Week 5 player picks

I am in a non-legal sports betting state for Week 5, which means a return to Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks, two platforms I have significant familiarity with. I spent several hours Thursday morning hitting these Week 5 player picks and felt compelled to let you know where I'm putting my money this week.

For each pick (over 25 total lines), I list the reasoning behind taking the line, along with my rough confidence level. If you are extremely risk averse, I'd recommend only hitting lines with 8/10 confidence or higher, but know that I have put my own money on every single one of these props.

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Romeo Doubs OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks, 44.5 on Underdog)

  • Doubs has been a full-time player the past two weeks
  • Both games, he had eight targets and at least 47 receiving yards
  • The Giants pass defense is below average
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Nick Chubb OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards (PrizePicks, 89.5 on Underdog)

  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Najee Harris UNDER 69.5 Total Yards (Underdog, 68.5 on PrizePicks)

  • Harris has gone OVER 69.5 total yards in only one game this season
  • The Steelers are two touchdown underdogs against Buffalo and won't have the luxury of running the ball much in this contest
  • CONFIDENCE: 9/10

Chase Claypool UNDER 32.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Claypool has been UNDER this number in three of four games this season
  • George Pickens appears to have taken the WR2 job from Claypool
  • Kenny Pickett did not complete a pass to Claypool in Week 4
  • The Bills' front seven should overwhelm a weak Steelers offensive line, forcing shorter passes, and resulting in fewer receiving yards
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Devin Singletary OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Singletary has at least 47 receiving yards in each of the past two games, and appears to have a new role in this offense
  • Singletary has handled 73% and 90% of the snaps in Weeks 3 and 4, along with 73% and 100% of the RB routes
  • CONFIDENCE: 6/10

Damien Harris OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • The Lions are allowing 445 total yards of offense per game to opponents in 2022
  • With Bailey Zappe at QB, the Patriots will deploy a run-heavy game plan
  • The Lions are allowing 5.3 yards per carry to opposing backs
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (PrizePicks, 54.5 on Underdog)

  • See notes for Damien Harris (above)
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Marcus Mariota OVER 0.5 Interceptions (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Mariota has thrown a pick in three of four games this year
  • The Buccaneers are a Top-3 pass defense, forcing INTs in all four games this season
  • CONFIDENCE: 9/10

Breece Hall OVER 64.5 Total Yards (Underdog)

  • Hall is averaging 85 total yards per game over the past two weeks
  • Hall has now out-snapped and out-touched Michael Carter each of the past two weeks
  • This is now Breece Hall's backfield
  • CONFIDENCE: 9/10

Elijah Moore OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, 45.5 on PrizePicks)

  • Moore has been OVER this number in three of four games
  • Moore continues to lead all NYJ WRs in routes run
  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Corey Davis OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

  • Davis has been OVER this number in three of four games
  • Davis is quietly on pace for OVER 1,100 receiving yards
  • Davis has an average target depth of 15.8 yards via our free, flagship tool The Edge
  • CONFIDENCE: 6/10

Derrick Henry OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

  • Henry has at least five targets and 33 receiving yards in back-to-back games
  • Henry has been utilized in the pass game in Weeks 3 and 4, coinciding with the Titans' first two wins of the season
  • Expect Henry's continued involvement in the pass game against the Commanders
  • CONFIDENCE: 6/10

DJ Moore UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Moore has been UNDER this number in every game this season
  • The 49ers are by far the best defense in the NFL
  • Baker Mayfield will not have time to get the ball successfully to Moore on a consistent basis
  • CONFIDENCE: 10/10

Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 Interceptions (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Stafford has thrown a pick in three of four games this season
  • Dallas has intercepted a pass in three of four games this season
  • The Cowboys front seven will overwhelm the Rams patchwork offensive line
  • CONFIDENCE: 9/10

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Tyler Higbee OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

  • Higbee has been OVER this number in three of four games
  • Stafford won't have much time to throw against Dallas
  • Higbee has a paltry average target depth (3.1 yards)
  • Higbee is averaging over nine targets and 61 receiving yards per game
  • Expect Stafford to once again key in on Higbee when under pressure
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Dallas Goedert OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

  • Goedert has had 60 or more receiving yards in three of four games this season.

  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Kyler Murray OVER 0.5 Interceptions (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • The Eagles have recorded an interception in three of four games
  • Kyler will need to throw early and often to keep this game against the 4-0 Eagles competitive
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Marquise Brown OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, 63.5 on PrizePicks)

  • Brown has been OVER this number each of the past three games
  • During that span, he has had at least 11 targets in every contest
  • The Eagles are projected to blow out the Cardinals, so expect 40 or more Kyler Murray pass attempts
  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Zach Ertz OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks, 42.5 on Underdog)

  • Ertz has been OVER this number each of the past three games
  • He is averaging nine targets per game in this span
  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.0 Passing Touchdowns (Underdog)

  • Mahomes has two or more touchdowns in three of four games this year
  • The Raiders are a below average pass defense
  • The Chiefs' implied team total is 29 points, second highest of Week 5
  • This is likely a push (money back) or the OVER hits
  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

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Joe Burrow OVER 275.5 Passing Yards + Ja'Marr Chase OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards + Tee Higgins OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards + Lamar Jackson OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards + Mark Andrews OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

  • The Ravens have allowed 968 receiving yards to WRs this season, 121 more yards allowed than any other NFL team
  • Lamar has at least nine rush attempts and 73 rushing yards each of the past three games
  • Rashod Bateman (foot) is not practicing this week, so expect more emphasis on Lamar and the run game
  • Andrews should be the focal point of this pass attack, and if/when Bateman is ruled out, Andrews' receiving yards line should increase significantly
  • CONFIDENCE THIS IS A +EV PICK-5: 8/10

Joe Burrow OVER 270.5 Passing Yards + Ja'Marr Chase OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards + Tee Higgins OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards + Lamar Jackson OVER 287.5 Total Yards + Mark Andrews OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)

  • Same as the above, but swapping in Lamar's total yardage line
  • Lamar will need to create more on his own with Bateman likely OUT
  • If Burrow and the Bengals are passing at will against the Ravens, this speeds up the overall game environment, forcing the Ravens to push the pace to keep up
  • Expect a high-scoring game between these two division rivals
  • CONFIDENCE THIS IS A +EV PICK-5: 7/10

Matt Ryan OVER 0.5 Interceptions (Underdog/PrizePicks)

  • Ryan has thrown an INT in three of four games this season
  • The Broncos only have 1 INT on the year, but have the sixth best pass defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA
  • CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Nyheim Hines OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks, 30.5 on Underdog)

  • Hines has 19 targets on only 70 routes run (27% target rate)
  • Jonathan Taylor has run more routes than Hines every week
  • With Taylor OUT, expect more snaps, more routes, and more targets for Hines
  • Broncos should bring heavy pressure, forcing Matt Ryan check downs to Hines
  • CONFIDENCE: 7/10
Tags: 2022 NFL Week 5, Player Picks, player props See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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