Betting
12/16/22
7 min read
Ekeler the Receiver a Better Week 15 Bet Than Ekeler the Runner
Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 15 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take in Week 15. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.
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The Freebie: Jalen Hurts HIGHER than 0.5 Completions
- This is a fun line to pair with any of the 14 lines below. Hurts has gone HIGHER than this number in 100% of his career NFL starts (obviously).
Austin Ekeler LOWER than 42.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- He's been LOWER than this number in eight of 13 games.
- The Titans allows 3.6 YPC to RBs, via The Edge.
- The Titans are the best run defense in the NFL, ranking first in Football Outsiders' rush DVOA.
- Ekeler just had 15 carries on Sunday Night Football, the third-highest rushing workload of the year for him.
- He averages under nine carries per game after getting 14 or more the week prior (six-game sample here).
Austin Ekeler HIGHER than 43.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby
- Ahead of Thursday Night Football, Ekeler had 21 more receptions this year than Christian McCaffrey, and two more targets than him PER GAME.
- The Titans are allowing the second-most receptions to RBs this year, and the second-most receiving yards since Week 9.
- Ekeler has had more than 43.5 receiving yards in eight of 13 games, averaging 48 receiving yards per game.
Ezekiel Elliott HIGHER than 55.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- He has at least 15 carries in five straight games, and at least 15 carries in nine of 11 games this season.
- Jacksonville has a perfectly average run defense.
- Zeke has at least 57 rushing yards in six of his past seven games.
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Tom Brady HIGHER than 40.5 Pass Attempts - Ben Wolby
- No QB is throwing the ball more than Tom Brady, who has 579 attempts, 18 more than the next-highest, Justin Herbert.
- This equates to 44.5 attempts per game – but in Weeks 1 and 2, Brady completed the fewest passes he had all year. Since then, he’s averaging 47 attempts per game, which, again, is the most in the league.
- Tampa is throwing on 67% of its plays, the most, while the league average is around 57%. The team’s identity is throwing the ball.
- Brady is 9-2 since Week 3 at being HIGHER than this number.
J.K. Dobbins HIGHER than 49.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- Dobbins just had 15 carries for 120 rushing yards against the Steelers, a much better run defense than Cleveland.
- The Browns allows 5.2 YPC (third-highest), via The Edge.
- Cleveland is 30th in rush DVOA.
- Dobbins should hit this number with around 10 carries.
Deshaun Watson HIGHER than 215.5 Passing Yards - Josh Larky
- The Ravens allow 3.7 YPC to RBs (fourth-fewest in the NFL per The Edge).
- Watson threw 22 times for 131 yards in Week 13, then 42 times for 276 in Week 14.
- He had much better efficiency metrics in Week 14 against Cincinnati, a much better pass defense than Houston.
- In eight of 13 games, the Ravens allowed HIGHER than this passing yards number.
- The Ravens allow 7.6 pass yards per attempt, fifth-highest to QBs, via The Edge.
- I'm not too concerned with Cleveland blowing out Baltimore since the line is only -3, and the Ravens' defense is quite good. Basically, I’m betting on Watson being a better QB this week than last, and he should hit this number with around 30 pass attempts.
Deshaun Watson HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions - Ben Wolby
- Watson has thrown an interception in both games since his return from suspension.
- The Ravens' defense has the second-most interceptions in the NFL (14).
- They are averaging just over one interception per game.
- Watson has thrown two interceptions in the two games he’s played against the Ravens.
- Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said Watson should start throwing deep more often, per Rotoballer.
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Matt Ryan HIGHER than 33.5 Pass Attempts - Josh Larky
- Ryan averages 38.9 pass attempts per game.
- Ryan has HIGHER than 33.5 attempts in all but three games this year.
- The Vikings have allowed six of their past eight opponents to attempt at least 39 passes.
Dak Prescott HIGHER than 257.5 Passing Yards - Josh Larky
- Dak has 261 or more passing yards in four of his past five games.
- The Jaguars have allowed 285 passing yards per game from Week 6 onward, via The Edge - Week 6 is when their fraudulent early-season defense started to crumble.
- Jacksonville is 30th in pass DVOA.
Michael Pittman HIGHER than 5.5 Receptions - Ben Wolby
- Minnesota has the sixth-worst pass DVOA and is allowing the most receptions to WRs.
- Pittman has hit this in three of the last four games with a 25% target share.
- WRs who had at least a 20% target share against the Vikings are 10-5 at being HIGHER than this number.
- At least one WR has topped this number against Minnesota in eight of 13 games.
Mike Gesicki LOWER than 1.5 Receptions - Josh Larky
- Gesicki has no catches on four targets over his past three games.
- He's played under 50% of the snaps in five of his past six games.
- This matchup against Buffalo features inclement weather, which should hurt passing volume.
Miles Sanders HIGHER than 14.5 Rush Attempts - Josh Larky
- Sanders has HIGHER than this number in eight of 13 games.
- Sanders has been LOWER than this number against pass funnel defenses (and the Lions in Week 1).
- Aside from the Week 1 Lions, the four other games he was LOWER than 14.5 were Washington, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee.
- Sanders should go HIGHER than this number against the Bears in Week 15, as they are the 29th-ranked run defense via Football Outsiders.
Leonard Fournette HIGHER than 22.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby
- Fournette's receiving yards line is set four yards LOWER than Rachaad White’s.
- White has run fewer routes and has fewer targets in every overlapping game this season.
- Fournette is 8-4 going HIGHER than this number and 8-0 when receiving more than three receptions.
- He averages 4.6 receptions and 31.7 receiving yards per game.
- RBs with at least two receptions are averaging 24.5 receiving yards per game against the Bengals' defense.
Brian Robinson Jr. HIGHER than 66.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- Robinson is averaging 20 carries and 86 rushing yards per game over his past four contests.
- The Giants get gashed on the ground, allowing 5.3 YPC to RBs, via The Edge.
- Robinson realistically needs 12-15 carries to be HIGHER than 66.5 yards.
Michael Gallup HIGHER than 40.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky
- He has at least 40 receiving yards in four of his past six games.
- He has at least six targets in four of his past five games.
- There have been 22 WRs (in 13 games) with 40+ yards receiving against the Jaguars.
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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Week 15 Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Week 15's Player Prop Happy Hour
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