Betting
11/19/22
8 min read
Week 11 NFL Main Slate Underdog High/Low Player Picks
We picked another breakout game on Thursday night as Treylon Burks went way over his 34.5 receiving yard line on the first drive. We finished the game 2-2. I'm still not sure how Derrick Henry didn’t go over 99.5 rushing yards on 28 carries, but we’re still happy with our process. That brings us to 61-55-2 for the season.
Tommy Tremble LOWER than 9.5 Yards Receiving
Last week, I picked Tommy Tremble to go higher than his projection with high confidence. Then Tremble saw his second-fewest routes run this season and only one target for no receptions or yards. His role might be decreasing in this offense as Laviska Shenault sees his role increase. Tremble averages only 9.6 air yards per target, and even when he gets the ball in his hands, he can’t do much with it as he only averages 2.8 yards after catch. Tremble will likely need to have one catch or less for this pick to hit, and I am willing to take that risk. I give it a confidence rating of 2/5 and would not play it any lower.
Kyle Pitts HIGHER than 38.5 Yards Receiving
I can’t stop going back to this line week after week. Kyle Pitts has seen insane usage for how low of a passing volume the Atlanta Falcons offense is, as he is averaging 8 targets per game over the last three games and a 30% target share. In the previous two games alone, he has over 300 air yards. The only issue is that he and Mariota haven’t been able to connect, so Pitts has had only two receptions in the last two games. I will trust the air yards and usage here and continue to ride this play. I give it a confidence rating of 3/5 due to Marcus Mariota being his quarterback and the Chicago Bears defense being above average at defending tight ends. However, I would not play it much higher if this line moves.
Jamaal Williams LOWER than 60.5 Yards Rushing
It hasn’t been since Week 1 that we have seen a healthy D’Andre Swift. In that game, Swift had 15 carries, and Jamaal Williams had 11. If Swift is actually fully healthy (he was a full participant all week), Jamaal Williams will likely see one of his lowest rush attempt totals of the season. This New York Giants defense is a bottom-ten defense at stopping the run, and they’re one of only four defenses allowing more than 5 yards per attempt. That makes this play fairly dangerous, but if Williams can only get 10-14 carries, I like his chances to go under. I give this pick a confidence rating of 3/5 and would play it down to 55.5 rushing yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson HIGHER than 20.5 Yards Receiving
One of the least talked about trends over the last month in the NFL is Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage in the receiving game. Since Week 7, he ranks only behind Austin Ekeler in targets and receptions per game for running backs. Stevenson gets the New York Jets defense this week. He had his season-high 71 receiving yards against them just a few weeks ago. The Jets have been about league average at limiting running backs in the receiving game, but the matchup from Week 7 makes me confident in this over. I give this play a 4/5 confidence and would play it up to 24.5 receiving yards.
Parris Campbell HIGHER than 36.5 Yards Receiving
Matt Ryan is back, and that is fantastic news for the Indianapolis Colts pass offense. Parris Campbell was on fire before Ryan was benched and is averaging 8 receptions and 68 receiving yards per game over the last three games with Ryan. The matchup could be better, though. The Philadelphia Eagles are a top 5 defense in both pass EPA per play and pass yards allowed. This matchup is what makes this line so low, and I am happy to take advantage of that. Based on Campbell’s usage with Matt Ryan, I am not worried about the matchup and am happy to take the discount on this line based on the matchup. I rate it 4/5 on confidence and would play it to 42.5 receiving yards.
Matthew Stafford LOWER than 2.5 Yards Rushing
Every week, I always find a line that makes me pause because it seems way off. A line of only 2.5 yards may not seem very off, but Matthew Stafford isn’t exactly known for his rushing ability. Stafford’s most rushing yards in a game this season is 6 yards, and he has been under 2.5 rush yards in seven out of eight games. Even if Stafford can get a few quarterback sneaks, he could go under this prop. Scrambling isn't much of a worry either, as he has only scrambled 4 times this season with a long of 4 yards and an average of 2.75 yards. I give this play a confidence rating of 4/5, but I wouldn’t play it any lower.
Terry McLaurin HIGHER than 59.5 Yards Receiving
Since Taylor Heinicke took over the starting quarterback role in Washington Week 7, Terry McLaurin has been incredible. He is averaging 9 targets, 6 receptions and 92.5 receiving yards per game with Heinecke. This includes 128 receiving yards against the elite Eagles pass defense last week. The Houston Texans, on paper, look to be an above-average pass defense, but that is because their rush defense is so bad that teams chose not to pass against them. This matchup is nothing to fear, and so I am riding with confidence with this connection that Heinicke and McLaurin have had. I rate this play as a 4/5 for confidence and would play it up to 65.5 receiving yards.
Greg Dulcich HIGHER than 37.5 Yards Receiving
I can’t escape playing Greg Dulcich with his usage, and this week he gets an improved matchup compared to last week. I already went over his great usage last week, and he continued to show that usage last Sunday. One of the most attractive parts of this play is his downfield usage, and he was about 6 inches away from a 35+ yard reception this last week as Russell Wilson barely overthrew him. Few tight ends can go higher than their player entry line on a single catch like Dulcich. He also should see slightly increased usage due to Jerry Jeudy being sidelined with an injury.
I joke every week in this article that I will always play higher entries against the Raiders. But it is not much of a joke, as this process has been highly successful. Although the Las Vegas Raiders have been average at defending tight ends, Dulcich’s role in the Denver Broncos offense makes this a great way to attack the terrible Raiders pass defense. I rate this a 5/5 confidence and would play it up to 45.5 receiving yards.
Joe Mixon HIGHER than 26.5 Yards Receiving
I really don’t get this line. I’ve tried to figure out why it is so low, and all I can think is that the Pittsburgh Steelers allow only 29.6 receiving yards per game to running backs, which is the 10th-fewest in the league.
There are several reasons I am so confident in this play. First is Mixon’s heavy usage in the passing game this season. He has yet to have a game with less than 4 receptions and is averaging 5.6 targets a game. In their first game in Week 1, Mixon had his most receiving yards in a single game this season with 63. He also had 9 targets and 7 receptions in that game, which tied his season high for both categories. Also, the Cincinnati Bengals do not abandon passing to Mixon when up big. Last week, when the Bengals were up more than two scores, Mixon still had 3 receptions for 23 yards and a touchdown. Again, I don’t understand why this line is so low. It is my highest confidence play of the week, so I rate it 5/5 and would play it up to 34.5 receiving yards.
Play of the Week:
One cool option Underdog has with player entries is the opportunity to play them with insurance. This means you can still miss one and win your entry at a reduced payout. Because of this, it also has a decreased payout if all of your entries win. I have really liked playing pick’em contests with four entries with insurance this season, so my play of the week is the following with insurance selected:
Joe Mixon HIGHER than 26.5 Yards Receiving and
Greg Dulcich HIGHER than 37.5 Yards Receiving and
Parris Campbell HIGHER than 36.5 Yards Receiving and
Matthew Stafford LOWER than 2.5 Yards Rushing
This will payout at 6x if all four hit and will still payout at 1.5x if only three of the picks hit.
WATCH MORE: Josh Larky is joined by Ben Wolby and Ryan Reynolds for their Week 11 Player Prop Happy Hour.
