Buffalo Bills (6-1) at New York Jets (5-3)
Opening Spread: Jets +13
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Jets (17.25), Bills (30.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets +13.
- This line has moved all the way down to Jets +11.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jets +12.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets +12.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
Jets: Out: OT Mekhi Becton, OT George Fant, OT Greg Senat, OT/ OG Alijah Vera-Tucker; Questionable: WR Corey Davis, LT Duane Brown, S Lamarcus Joyner
Bills: Out: WR Jamison Crowder, S Micah Hyde; Questionable: RT Spencer Brown, Edge Von Miller, LB Tremaine Edmunds, LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White, S Jordan Poyer
The Jets Offense vs. Bills Defense
The Jets continue to have availability issues at offensive tackle. They have done a spectacular job of managing that ongoing crisis, but now they get the Bills’ top-five caliber pass rush. Buffalo’s front has a significant advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-5 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 9-9 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-9 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 11-14 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Jets are scoring 22 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- New York is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Since Zach Wilson’s return, passing game volume appears to be driven by game script.
- Per the Edge, in the first full game without Breece Hall, Michael Carter led the Jets’ backfield in carries (seven) and targets (seven). Newly acquired running back James Robinson had five carries and one target. Ty Johnson had two carries and two targets.
- In the three games that the Jets have lost, Garrett Wilson has a range of seven to 11 targets. Wilson had 14 targets in a come from behind effort against the Browns. Joe Flacco was the Jets’ quarterback in the two games that Wilson had double-digit targets.
- Elijah Moore had nine total targets in the four games he was active for in October.
- Tyler Conklin’s high-end usage fell off a cliff once Zach Wilson returned to action. However, Conklin had six receptions for 79 yards receiving and two scores on 10 targets in a negative game script against the Patriots last week.
- The Bills have allowed 14 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the 28th-most yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Buffalo has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bills have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bills Offense vs. Jets Defense
Buffalo has an average offensive line that greatly benefits from Josh Allen’s unique brand of heroics. The Jets have a top-10 caliber defensive front. New York has a mild edge in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 4-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 1-6 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 39-25-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 28-38-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 49-34-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 38-48-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bills are scoring 29 points per game, good for second in the league.
- Buffalo is first in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Allen is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game.
- Devin Singletary is 32nd among running backs in yards rushing per game and 10th in yards receiving per game.
- Buffalo acquired Nyheim Hines before the trade deadline earlier this week. Hines is an asset in the passing game whose role in that phase will grow in the coming weeks.
- Stefon Diggs is third in the league in receptions (55), second in yards receiving (764), and is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (seven). Diggs is 13th in the league in target share (27.7%) and air yards share (37.3%).
- Gabe Davis has only breached 100 yards receiving once this season, and his four receptions on opening night are his most in a game to this point in the season. Davis has had at least six targets in each of his last three games.
- Dawson Knox has topped out at four receptions and 41 yards receiving in a game to this point in the season.
- The Jets have allowed 19.9 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Jets vs. Bills
If you’re betting on the Jets, you need their top-10 level defensive front to have a significant impact in this game. That will help their better-than-expected secondary manage Josh Allen’s passing attack. On the other side of the ball, if you’re betting on the Jets, you need Zach Wilson to manufacture three to four scoring drives without providing the Bills with turnover opportunities. If Buffalo breaches its 30-point team total, you’re going to need an abnormal game out of the Jets’ offense against a high-level Bills’ defense. The Jets have enough talent to have a surge on offense, but their injury issues at offensive tackle paired with uneven play by quarterback Zach Wilson make that more of an outlier outcome at this stage.
If you’re betting on the Bills, you are betting on Josh Allen to continue carrying one of the league’s best offenses. A fairly contrarian take that I’ve had since the day after the draft is Josh Allen’s supporting cast on offense is very average outside of Stefon Diggs. The Bills’ defense, on the other hand, is filled with difference-makers. It looks like stud cornerback Tre’Davious White has a shot at making his 2022 debut this week. Including White, Buffalo has five impact players on the injury report on defense. If I’m betting on Buffalo, I’m betting on Josh Allen’s offense to score at least 27 points while Buffalo’s defense shuts down Zach Wilson’s struggling passing offense. If I’m making a bet on Buffalo, I want four out of those five defenders on the injury report to be active for this contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: Josh Allen is the current front-runner in the MVP race. Stefon Diggs is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: The Jets are a very aggressive differentiator option in winner pools with weekly payouts. I’m going to take Buffalo in most of my pools, but I will play the Jets once in that format. In confidence pools I will have Buffalo ranked within the top three in that format.
Spread Pool: At this juncture I’m going to avoid this game against the spread, but I lean towards the Jets as double-digit underdogs in ATS pools where you have to pick every game.
Survivor Pool: I’m personally saving the Bills, but they are a perfectly reasonable option in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
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