Analysis
12/17/22
9 min read
NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Giants vs. Commanders
Sunday Night Football:
New York Giants (7-5-1) at Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
Opening Spread: Commanders -4.5.
Opening Game Total: 40.
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (22.25) Giants (17.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders -4.5.
- This line remains at Commanders -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders -4.5.
- This total opened at 40-points.
- This total has moved to 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Commanders: Questionable: Edge Chase Young, CB Benjamin St-Juste.
Giants: Out: CB Adoree’ Jackson, S Xavier McKinney. Questionable: TE Daniel Bellinger, DL Leonard Williams.
Commanders Offense vs. Giants Defense
I have the Commanders' offensive line tiered as a below-average unit. I have the Giants' defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 group. The Giants' defense has a notable advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 7-5-1 against the spread this season.
- Washington is 4-9 on overs this season.
- Taylor Heinicke is 12-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Heinicke is 8-15 on overs in his career.
- Coach Ron Rivera is 96-85-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Rivera is 91-93-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Commanders Offense
- Washington is scoring 19.5 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- The Commanders are 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- The Commanders are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Washington is 5-1-1 since Heinicke took over at quarterback.
- Brian Robinson has 15 or more carries in each of his last four games, per The Edge. Robinson has breached 80 yards rushing in three of those four matchups. Robinson has five total targets over that span with zero targets in two of those contests.
- Antonio Gibson has nine carries in each of his last two games. Gibson has at least three targets in 12 of 13 games this season.
- Terry McLaurin has a 23.2% target share on the season with a 38.8% air yards share. McLaurin has eight or more targets in five of the seven games Heinicke has played this season. McLaurin had eight receptions for 105 yards receiving and a score against the Giants two weeks ago.
- Curtis Samuel has breached 50 yards receiving in four of the seven games since Heinicke took over. Samuel has a high of 65 yards receiving in a game during that span.
- Jahan Dotson breached 50 yards receiving for just the second time this season in Week 13 against the Giants.
- Logan Thomas has a 12% target share with an 11.7% air yards share this season.
Giants Defense
- New York has allowed 23.1 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- New York has given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
Giants Offense vs. Commanders Defense
I have the Giants tiered as a below-average offensive line. I have the Commanders' defensive front as a top-10 unit with an elite interior duo. The Commanders' defense has a major advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 9-4 against the spread this season.
- New York is 5-8 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 28-22 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 19-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Coach Brian Daboll is 9-4 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Daboll is 5-8 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Giants Offense
- New York is scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- The Giants are 27th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- New York is passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Jones is fifth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 548, per The Edge. Jones has breached 225 yards passing in two of his 13 games this season. Jones has thrown for less than 200 yards passing in eight games this year.
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 1083, and he’s tied for 10th in touchdowns with eight. Barkley is 14th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Darius Slayton has a 16.4% target share with a 33.4% air yards share. Slayton has 58 yards receiving or more in six of his last seven games. Slayton had six receptions for 90 yards receiving against the Commanders two weeks ago.
- Isaiah Hodgins has a 14.4% target share with a 22.8% air yards share. Hodgins has six targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games.
- Richie James Jr. has a 13.8% target share with a 14.7% air yards share.
- Daniel Bellinger has a 10.8% target share with a 3.7% air yards share.
- Slayton has played 337 snaps on the perimeter and 148 in the slot, per TruMedia.
- Hodgins has played 208 snaps on the perimeter and 37 in the slot.
- James has played 73 snaps on the perimeter and 265 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- Washington has allowed 19.7 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- The Commanders have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- Washington has given up the 10th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Commanders have given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Washington has allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Commanders vs. Giants
These two teams played in Week 13, and they tied 20-20 at MetLife stadium. The Giants got blown out by the Eagles last week, while Washington was on their bye. Washington is facing the Giants two games in a row with a bye in between, giving them a unique advantage in this contest. The loser of this game is going to be in trouble in the NFC Wild Card race.
If You're a Commanders' Bettor
A bet on Washington is bet on a Commanders team that is on a 5-1-1 run since Heinicke took over at quarterback. The Commanders are an average at best offense, but they have been more consistent under Heinicke. Last season, Heinicke had a ceiling game against the Giants where he threw for 336 yards. If you’re betting on Washington, your expectation for their offense is more of a solid, grind-it-out-with-limited-turnovers type of game, but that ceiling outcome is possible here against a freefalling Giants team.
If you are betting on Washington you are primarily betting on their top-10 defense coming off their bye. Since Heinicke took over, the Commanders have given up 21 or fewer points in all seven of those contests. Washington has held their opponent to fewer than 20 points in four of those contests. Your biggest concern as a Commanders' bettor is the Giants' defense takes advantage of their own trench advantage and limits Washington’s offense. If New York can pair that with a strong running game provided by Barkley and Jones, the Giants have a path to steal this game.
If You're a Giants' Bettor
New York has one of the most limited offenses in the league. The combination of Barkley and Jones is a dangerous duo on the ground. However, outside of Slayton, New York doesn’t have another skill position player even close to a difference maker. If you are betting on New York, you are betting on their limited offense against a top-10 defense that has a major advantage in the trenches. The clearest path to the Giants keeping this game tight is if their defense plays its best game in more than a month.
The Giants have given up 27 or more points in four of their last six games. New York held Washington to 20 points two weeks ago, allowing anything beyond that is going to require a spike game from one of the league’s worst offenses. Ultimately, the Giants' offense is your biggest concern. However, you absolutely need New York’s defense to at least meet expectations, if you’re a Giants bettor.
Awards Market Ramifications: Ron Rivera is a Coach of the Year longshot.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be Commanders heavy in winner pools, but I will have a little Giants' exposure in that format. I expect to be right around consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Washington is playing the same opponent two games in a row with a bye in between. Factor in they are at home and have a better roster than the Giants, and that’s why the Commanders are -4.5 favorites in this contest. That’s a little much for me even though I have no confidence in the Giants. Ultimately, I’m going to pass on this one against the spread, but I’d lean toward the Commanders' side when picking every game.
Survivor Pool: Washington isn’t a great survivor option, but at this late point in the season they are a playable option in this spot.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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