Opening Spread: Eagles -7
Opening Game Total: 48
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (27.5) Giants (20.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -7
- This line has moved to Eagles -7.5
- This total opened at 48-points
- This total has moved to 47.5-points
Eagles: Questionable: RT Lane Johnson, Edge Brandon Graham, Edge Robert Quinn
Giants: Questionable: WR Isaiah Hodgins, Edge Azeez Ojulari, LB Landon Collins, CB Fabian Moreau, S Julian Love
Eagles Offense vs. Giants Defense
At full strength, the Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. If elite right tackle Lane Johnson misses this contest, Philadelphia is more of a fringe top-10 offensive line. I have the Giants defensive front as a top-10 unit. The Giants’ defensive front has enough ceiling to derail a game, but it also has been inconsistent this year. Overall, I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw where Johnson’s availability will have a notable impact.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 8-9 against the spread this season
- Philadelphia is 10-7 on overs this season
- Jalen Hurts is 17-16-1 against the spread in his career
- Hurts is 20-14 on overs in his career
- Nick Sirianni is 16-17-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Sirianni is 20-14 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- Philadelphia scores 28.1 points per game, good for third in the league
- Hurts is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing
- The Eagles are passing on 56% of plays and running on 44%, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Hurts is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing (760) and second among all runners in rushing touchdowns (13) despite missing two games
- Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 1,269 and eighth in rushing touchdowns with 11
- A.J. Brown is 12th in the league in receptions (88), fourth in yards receiving (1,496), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (11), eighth in target share (28.7%), and seventh in air yards share (39.4%)
- DeVonta Smith is 10th in the league in receptions (95), ninth in yards receiving (1,196), tied for 15th in receiving touchdowns (7), and 15th in target share (26.9%) with a 30.2% air yards share
- Despite missing five games, Dallas Goedert was 12th among tight ends in receptions (55), seventh in yards receiving (702), 19th in touchdowns (3), seventh in target share (19.4%) and 13th in air yards share (15%)
- Per TruMedia, Brown has played 647 snaps on the perimeter and 287 in the slot
- Brown is sixth in the league in yards after the catch, and he’s third among non-running backs
- Smith has played 789 snaps on the perimeter and 222 in the slot
- Goedert has played 412 snaps as an inline tight end, 63 on the perimeter and 195 in the slot
- New York allows 21.8 points per game, which is 17th in the league
- The Giants are 13th in the league in sacks, second in forced fumbles, and 31st in interceptions
- Per The Edge, New York allows the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs
- The Giants gave up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- New York gave up the seventh-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
- The Giants allowed the 10th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends
Giants Offense vs. Eagles Defense
I’d argue the Giants’ offensive line is coming off its best game of the season against a formidable Vikings front. That outcome, in that high-pressure spot, has me bumping the Giants up toward the back of league average. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front, with the most defensive line depth by a considerable margin. The Eagles’ defensive front has a moderate to significant advantage against the Giants.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 13-4 against the spread this season
- New York is 7-10 on overs this season
- Daniel Jones is 31-22 against the spread in his career
- Jones is 21-30-2 on overs in his career
- Brian Daboll is 13-4 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Daboll is 7-10 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- New York scores 21.5 points per game, which is 15th in the league
- The Giants are 27th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing
- New York passes on 59% of plays and runs on 41%, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per The Edge, Jones finished the season with 708 yards rushing, which is fifth among quarterbacks
- Jones had fewer than 200 yards passing in 11 of 16 games this season, but he breached 300 yards passing against the Vikings a few weeks ago
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 1,312, and he’s 14th among running backs in yards receiving (338)
- Darius Slayton led the Giants in yards receiving with 724, but he’s been held below 50 in three of his past four games
- Richie James has at least seven targets and 60 yards receiving in three of his past four games, which includes 90 yards against the Vikings
- Isaiah Hodgins had an 8-89-1 line on 12 targets against the Vikings a few weeks ago
- Daniel Bellinger has 40 or more yards receiving in just two of his 11 games
- Per TruMedia, Slayton has played 473 snaps on the perimeter and 186 in the slot
- Hodgins has played 354 snaps on the perimeter and 57 in the slot
- James has played 85 snaps on the perimeter and 404 in the slot
>> Read: Daniel Jones Is New York’s Future
- Philadelphia has allowed 20.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league
- The Eagles led the league in sacks, were seventh in forced fumbles and fourth in interceptions
- Per The Edge, Philadelphia allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- The Eagles gave up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Philadelphia allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Eagles are the NFC’s top seed, so they are coming off their bye. The Giants went into Minnesota and upset the Vikings in the Wild Card round. The Eagles beat the Giants, 48-22, in Week 14 and 22-16 in Week 18 against New York’s backups. The Eagles underwhelmed in the regular season finale, but the game wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. The Eagles were in control the whole way.
#Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is off the injury report and fully cleared from his shoulder injury as Philadelphia starts preparation for Saturday's game vs. the New York Giants.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 17, 2023
If You’re Betting on the Eagles
The Eagles have the most talented roster in the league with top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary, one of the league’s best wide receiver duos, a top-10 tight end, and a running back that was fifth in the league in rushing. Then you have Hurts, who oddsmakers had as the MVP favorite before a shoulder injury cost him two games down the stretch.
The Eagles have the raw materials to beat anyone, and they have a significantly more talented roster than the Giants. The Eagles can realistically exceed expectations on the ground, in the air and with their defense in this matchup. If you’re betting on the Eagles, Philadelphia’s talent edge in virtually every position group matchup is what you’re building that bet around.
You have a few concerns as an Eagles bettor. The first is Philadelphia’s ability to win with distance will be greatly reduced if Hurts has an average or worse game. Since Hurts has only played once during the last month, that type of outcome is on the table. The status of Johnson is important, as the Eagles have been a less reliable offense without him.
Philadelphia also stumbled down the stretch with a genuinely concerning home loss to the Saints in Week 17. While Gardner Minshew was the Eagles’ quarterback for that contest, if Philadelphia plays like that against the Giants, they’ll lose. You also should have some concerns about the Giants themselves. They are a well-coached team that has exceeded expectations all season, and they are playing with house money. The pressure is clearly on Philadelphia in this contest, while New York has nothing to lose.
If You’re Betting on the Giants
Jones couldn’t have played better than he did in Minnesota last week, but he hasn’t had many spike games as a passer in his young career. When he has, those have generally come against below-average pass defenses that allow consistent separation while achieving limited disruption. To phrase that another way, ideal conditions for a quarterback.
The Giants offensive line played an outstanding game last week, and the Vikings’ secondary left the Giants’ pass catchers abnormally wide-open. While Jones is getting a tremendous amount of praise this week, and he’s earned it, his performance as a passer against the Vikings is just as much about Minnesota’s defensive failures as it is his successes.
If you’re betting on the Giants, Jones’ needle is pointing up, but expect the Eagles’ defense to be more disruptive while forcing much tighter windows than the Vikings did. The Giants are well coached, but an offensive explosion against the Eagles is an outlier outcome.
Most of the Giants’ wins this season have come behind strong defensive efforts paired with Jones playing turnover-free football. That’s been the Giants’ formula all year, and that’s the most likely path to a close game in this matchup. That type of outcome is more likely now than it would have been a month ago considering the Eagles’ late-season struggles.
You have two major concerns as a Giants bettor. The first is if Hurts comes out hot and aggressive early in this game. That’s a major problem for New York. The second is if the Eagles’ defense has the raw materials to dominate this game in the trenches while forcing tight windows against the Giants’ below-average wide receivers. If both of those conditions happen, this game could be a blowout like the first matchup between these two teams.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 16
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
TS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 60-40