Betting
11/26/22
8 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Bears vs. Jets
Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)
Opening Spread: Jets -6
Opening Game Total: 42
Opening Team Totals: Jets (24), Bears (18)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets -6.
- This line has moved to Jets -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jets -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets -4.5.
- This total opened at 42 points.
- This total has moved down to 39.5 points.
The Jets Offense vs. Bears Defense
First off, the Jets have a slightly below-average offensive line due to an abnormally large amount of injuries. While, the Bears have a bottom-tier defensive front. The Jets' offense has a slight advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes: Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 6-4 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-7 on overs this season.
- Robert Saleh is 12-15 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 19.9 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- New York is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- Mike White is taking over at quarterback for the New York Jets.
- In his four appearances, last season White had two or more interceptions in three of them. In the contest that White didn’t throw an interception, he came on in relief duty and only had 11 passing attempts.
- Per the Edge, in the three games since Breece Hall’s season-ending injury Michael Carter has 27 carries and ten targets to James Robinson’s 25 carries and three targets.
- Garrett Wilson’s usage has been all over the road this season.
- In the five games that Wilson's seen seven or more targets, he’s breached 100 yards receiving twice while exceeding 50 yards receiving in all of those contests. He’s fallen below 50 yards receiving in each of the other five games, falling below 30 yards receiving in four of the last six games.
- Corey Davis hasn’t played since October 23rd, but he’s off the injury report this week.
- Elijah Moore has caught two passes since October 9th. Those two receptions came last week against New England.
- Similar to Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin’s usage has been all over the road this season.
- Conklin had 24 targets through the first three games, with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Since then he’s had five or more targets in three of his seven games.
Bears Defense
- The Bears have allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Chicago has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bears have allowed the 29th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bears Offense vs. Jets Defense
Additionally, the Bears have a below-average offensive line, that’s worse in pass protection than the run game. While on the other hand, the Jets have a top-ten defensive front. New York has a potentially game-derailing advantage in the trenches. If Justin Fields doesn’t play, that trench advantage is an even bigger positive for the Jets against the far more stationary Trevor Siemian.
Betting Notes: Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 4-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 7-4 on overs this season.
- Matt Eberflus is 4-6-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt Eberflus is 7-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bears Offense
- The Bears are scoring 21.9 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Chicago is last in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Justin Fields has not been officially ruled out for this contest, but it looks like Trevor Siemian is likely to start at quarterback for the Bears.
- Siemian is a solid backup quarterback, but he has a radically different skill set than Fields. The Bears' below-average offensive line is going to be a significantly bigger issue for Siemian to overcome than it is for a dynamic athlete like Fields.
- Per the Edge, in the first game without Khalil Herbert, David Montgomery had 17.5 carries and four targets against the Falcons last week.
- Darnell Mooney has at least 50 yards receiving in six of his last eight games. Mooney’s 27.7% target share is 12th in the league and his 35.8% air yards share is 16th.
- After seeing six targets in his Bears debut, Chase Claypool only has five targets in total over the past two games. Claypool has yet to breach 15 yards receiving in a game as a Bears.
- Cole Kmet has 12 receptions on 17 targets for 150 yards receiving and four touchdowns over his last three games.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
If You’re Betting on the Jets
A bet on the Jets is a bet on Gang Green’s surging defense. The Jets have been an excellent pass defense and they’ll get a major advantage in the trenches with this matchup. If Justin Fields doesn’t play in this contest, the Jets have a realistic path to holding the Bears below ten points. Quarterback volatility is the thing that’s keeping the Jets from being a title contender. After Zach Wilson’s underwhelming play paired with his no-accountability press conference last week, the Jets have moved to Mike White.
Consequently, I am less enthusiastic about this shift than most seem to be, as White is an extremely volatile player that threw eight interceptions in four appearances last season. That said, he gets a Bears defense that has given up 27 or more points in each of their last four games. In a best-case scenario, the more aggressive White shreds the Bears' vulnerable defense while the Jets' defense shuts down Chicago’s offense. In a worst-case scenario, White’s uneven play keeps the Bears in this game regardless of how well the Jets' defense plays.
If You're Betting on the Bears
A bet on the Bears is very dependent on the availability of Justin Fields, who should probably be held out of this contest given the Bears' 3-8 record. Nathan Peterman was elevated to the active roster on Saturday, which points toward Trevor Siemian starting this contest. With Siemian as the starter, we can reasonably expect the garden variety muddy, run-heavy game plan. Even so, with a potential few short, manufactured completions mixed in and a shot play early in the game. The problem with that is the Jets have a significant advantage in the trenches.
Not to mention, without Fields' dynamic play-making ability, the Bears have a real uphill battle here on offense. The offensive line stability dictates what you’re even capable of attempting on offense. On the other side of the ball, this is the most beatable Bears defense in recent memory. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Jets' new quarterback, Mike White, had eight interceptions in his four appearances last year. If you’re betting on the Bears and Fields ends up missing this contest as we expect, you are betting directly against White while hoping Chicago can string together enough offense to keep this one close.
Awards Market Ramifications: Sauce Gardner is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. Robert Saleh is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: In addition, I’m going to take the Jets in my winner pools. I expect to be in line with the consensus in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Indeed, I liked the Jets early in the week, but the move to Mike White has reduced my enthusiasm greatly. While the Jets' offense might have a higher ceiling with the more aggressive White in this contest, he is far more turnover-prone than Zach Wilson. I’m now going to pass on this game with White at quarterback.
Survivor Pool: Moreover, my survivor pool stance on this game is similar to how I feel about this contest against the spread. I liked the Jets as an aggressive option with Zach Wilson, but I don’t like the downside that Mike White brings. That quarterback shift has taken the Jets off the table for me in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: Why Benching Zach Wilson Was 'The Right Move'
