MNF: Bengals (4-3) at Browns (2-5)
Opening Spread: Browns +3
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Team Totals: Browns (22.25), Bengals (25.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some chance of rain
The Line Report
- This line opened as Browns +3.
- This line has moved to Browns +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Browns +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Browns +3.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 45.5 points.
Browns: Out: TE David Njoku, RG Wyatt Teller, CB Denzel Ward. Questionable: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Greg Newsome, CB Greedy Williams.
Bengals: IR: D.J. Reader. Out: Ja’Marr Chase, DT Josh Tupou. Doubtful: CB Eli Apple.
Browns Offense vs. Bengals Defense
Cleveland has a top-five offensive line at full strength, but they are down RG Wyatt Teller. The Bengals have been an excellent run defense the last couple of seasons, but they are down D.J. Reader. The Browns offensive line has a significant edge in the trenches against Cincinnati.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Browns are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 6-1 on overs this season.
- Jacoby Brissett is 33-31-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jacoby Brissett is 32-34 on overs in his career.
- Kevin Stefanski is 16-24 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin Stefanski is 22-18 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Browns are scoring 24 points per game, good for tenth in the league.
- Cleveland is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb is second in the league in yards rushing per game with 105. Chubb is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
- Amari Cooper’s 26.2% target share is 18th in the league and his 38.5% air yards share is 11th.
- Cooper has had double-digit targets in four of his seven games.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has had at least five targets in each of the last four games.
- With David Njoku sidelined, the very capable Harrison Bryant steps in as the Browns primary tight end.
- The Bengals have allowed 18.9 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has the Bengals defense ranked fifth in the league. They’ve been higher than consensus on the Bengals defense all year, and they’ve been right.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the seventh fewest yards rushing per game and the fourth fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- Cincinnati has given up the fifth fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Bengals have allowed the tenth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
Bengals Offense vs. Browns Defense
The Bengals revamped offensive line has struggled against premium fronts, but they’ve been fine against the more average units. Cleveland’s front is an average group as a whole, with dynamic Edge Myles Garrett who is an individual matchup nightmare against virtually everyone. Cleveland’s pass rush had some success against Joe Burrow last year.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 5-2 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 20-13 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 16-16-1 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 30-26 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 25-30-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 24.7 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Cincinnati is third in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon is 24th in yards rushing per game among running backs. Mixon is seventh among running backs in yards receiving per game.
- With Ja’Marr Chase sidelined Tee Higgins (16.7% target share, 23.5% air yards share) and Tyler Boyd (14% target share, 20.5% air yards share) are both in store for role expansion.
- Hayden Hurst could also see a bump beyond his 14.4% target share.
- Per TruMedia, Tee Higgins has played 227 snaps on the perimeter and 58 in the slot.
- Tyler Boyd leads the league in snaps from the slot with 315, with just 61 on the perimeter.
- The Browns have allowed 26.6 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the sixth most yards rushing per game and the 27th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cleveland has given up the 17th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Cleveland has given up the ninth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers this year.
- The Browns have allowed the 18th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bengals vs. Browns
The Browns beat Cincinnati twice last season: 41-16 in Cincinnati and 21-16 at home against the Bengals’ backups. In the 41-16 loss that Joe Burrow played in, he took five sacks.
A bet on the Browns is a bet on a 2-5 team that’s been better than their record indicates. Cleveland has a premium offensive line, a premium running game, an elite edge rusher, along with a number of other quality players sprinkled throughout their roster. When Deshaun Watson returns to action, Cleveland is going to be a handful. Jacoby Brissett is a rock-solid backup, as the Browns have scored the tenth most points per game this season. But Cleveland has a major deficit at quarterback when they are up against someone like Joe Burrow.
If you’re betting on Cleveland, you need two core things to happen. The first is that their run game continues to roll against a Bengals front that is down D.J. Reader. The second is that in order to limit the Bengals offense, you need to consistently pressure Burrow. Your biggest concern with a Browns bet is that Joe Burrow’s offense comes out hot, and Jacoby Brissett is forced to play most of this contest in a negative game script.
A bet on the Bengals is a bet on Joe Burrow’s high-ceiling offense and a defense that has been better than most football fans probably expect. Cincinnati will be down Ja’Marr Chase for the next month or more. The Bengals are better equipped to press on despite a major loss like that, but it is a difference-maker, especially with the Browns’ best cornerback Denzel Ward on the shelf.
If you’re betting on the Bengals, you’re betting on stable pass protection while Burrow continues to shred defenses with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as his headliners. The Bengals have another path to success in this game, which is their defense at least meeting expectations against Jacoby Brissett’s offense.
Bengals vs. Browns Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Joe Burrow is a mid-ranged MVP longshot.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: There are a number of games clustered right around three points this week. I’m going to have the Bengals towards the top of that group in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: A few days ago, I leaned towards Browns +3.5 as the hook covers a wider range of outcomes in a contest that could very well end up being close. But after diving into the details, I’m leaning towards passing on this one now.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
WATCH MORE: Bengals Will Miss Ja’Marr Chase