2023 Schedule Release: Win Total, Division Bets to Take

After projecting the win totals for all 32 teams for the upcoming 2023 NFL season, there are five bets I have personally taken that are worth considering.

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Win Total Bets to Take

Lions/Bears to Finish 1st/2nd in the Division

Odds: +500 (16.7 percent) on BetMGM

The Detroit Lions are the massive favorites to win the NFC North.
Detroit boasts an elite offensive line, a good quarterback, solid offensive weapons and a young defense that was improved during free agency and the draft.
The Chicago Bears surrounded Justin Fields with competent offensive linemen and above-average pass catchers.
While the Minnesota Vikings and Bears project to be fairly similar teams on paper, the Bears have the 28th-ranked strength of schedule, while the Vikings are 15th.
We have the Bears projected to win slightly more games than the Vikings, and you can see the game-by-game win probabilities for all 32 teams here.

Lions to Win the Division

Odds: +140 (41.7 percent) on FanDuel

The Lions scored the fifth most points in the NFL last season and added RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta early in the draft.
This team added several new pieces on defense in free agency and the draft.
The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games last year and were out-scored by their opponents.
The Bears should be much improved, but won three games last year and look like they’re still one year away from truly contending.
The Green Bay Packers are switching from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love and, rightfully, have the worst divisional odds in the NFC North.

Jaguars to Win the Division

Odds: +160 (60 percent) on DraftKings

Rookie quarterbacks have won just 36 percent of their starts in the past decade.
The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will start rookies at quarterback for much, if not all, of the 2023 season.
The Tennessee Titans could turn to rookie Will Levis by midseason.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ point differential was more than 100 better than any of their three division rivals last season, and Trevor Lawrence should take another step forward in Year 2 under coach Doug Pederson.
For a more comprehensive breakdown of the Jaguars, refer to this article.

Seahawks OVER 8.5 Wins

Odds: -130 (56.5%) on DraftKings

The Seattle Seahawks project to win 10 games in 2023. You can sign up for our full win-total predictions here.
Geno Smith is surrounded by a solid offensive line and one of the NFL’s best collection of skill players.
- Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant and Zach Charbonnet
The defense boasts one of the NFL’s best secondaries.
The Seahawks have one of the easiest home schedules.

Raiders UNDER 7.5 Wins

Odds: -150 (60%) on DraftKings

The Las Vegas Raiders have the seventh-hardest schedule in 2023.
Our system projects just 6.6 wins for the Raiders.
This team won six games last year and now has a downgrade at quarterback, going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Raiders have a mediocre offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in all of football.

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