Betting
5/11/23
3 min read
2023 Schedule Release: Win Total, Division Bets to Take
After projecting the win totals for all 32 teams for the upcoming 2023 NFL season, there are five bets I have personally taken that are worth considering.
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Win Total Bets to Take
Lions/
Bears to Finish 1st/2nd in the Division
Odds: +500 (16.7 percent) on BetMGM
- The Detroit Lions are the massive favorites to win the NFC North.
- Detroit boasts an elite offensive line, a good quarterback, solid offensive weapons and a young defense that was improved during free agency and the draft.
- The Chicago Bears surrounded Justin Fields with competent offensive linemen and above-average pass catchers.
- While the Minnesota Vikings and Bears project to be fairly similar teams on paper, the Bears have the 28th-ranked strength of schedule, while the Vikings are 15th.
- We have the Bears projected to win slightly more games than the Vikings, and you can see the game-by-game win probabilities for all 32 teams here.
Lions to Win the Division
Odds: +140 (41.7 percent) on FanDuel
- The Lions scored the fifth most points in the NFL last season and added RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta early in the draft.
- This team added several new pieces on defense in free agency and the draft.
- The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games last year and were out-scored by their opponents.
- The Bears should be much improved, but won three games last year and look like they’re still one year away from truly contending.
- The Green Bay Packers are switching from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love and, rightfully, have the worst divisional odds in the NFC North.
Jaguars to Win the Division
Odds: +160 (60 percent) on DraftKings
- Rookie quarterbacks have won just 36 percent of their starts in the past decade.
- The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will start rookies at quarterback for much, if not all, of the 2023 season.
- The Tennessee Titans could turn to rookie Will Levis by midseason.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars’ point differential was more than 100 better than any of their three division rivals last season, and Trevor Lawrence should take another step forward in Year 2 under coach Doug Pederson.
- For a more comprehensive breakdown of the Jaguars, refer to this article.
Seahawks OVER 8.5 Wins
Odds: -130 (56.5%) on DraftKings
- The Seattle Seahawks project to win 10 games in 2023. You can sign up for our full win-total predictions here.
- Geno Smith is surrounded by a solid offensive line and one of the NFL’s best collection of skill players.
- The defense boasts one of the NFL’s best secondaries.
- The Seahawks have one of the easiest home schedules.
Raiders UNDER 7.5 Wins
Odds: -150 (60%) on DraftKings
- The Las Vegas Raiders have the seventh-hardest schedule in 2023.
- Our system projects just 6.6 wins for the Raiders.
- This team won six games last year and now has a downgrade at quarterback, going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo.
- The Raiders have a mediocre offensive line and one of the worst secondaries in all of football.
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