Analysis
11/7/22
18 min read
Between the Lines: Betting the NFL Week 10 Edition
Every Monday during the NFL season, I’ll compare game spreads to my own power ratings and give my perspective on whether I think the betting lines are accurate. Paying attention to the NFL market is one of the single most important aspects of successful wagering. With all the variance and volatility of pro football, placing a bet on the most advantageous side of a number is often the only difference between a winning or losing ticket.
All lines are consensus numbers across the U.S. Sportsbooks as of Monday morning. Some may not be out yet. Early lines that stick out as great early bets are highlighted in red.
Falcons at Panthers (+3), Total: 42.5
With only 13 days in between, these two NFC South rivals will go at it again in what was a very evenly matched competition in Week 8. The Carolina Panthers outgained the Atlanta Falcons in that contest and probably should have won. Two bad misses by Panthers’ place kicker Eddy Pineiro ended up being the difference– both kicks would have put Carolina in prime position to snag a victory. The embattled Panthers are coming off an ass-whooping by last year’s AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. Cincinnati doubled Carolina’s total yards, dropped 42 points on a respectable defense, and won the first-down-battle 30-13. They also forced three turnovers.
The Falcons held a lead for the majority of their matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers at home, but Justin Herbert was too much in the end. Although a late fumble nearly crushed their chances, the Chargers marched down the field with some big plays from Herbert and running back Austin Ekeler. Cameron Dicker kicked the game-winning field goal with no time left on the game clock.
I have this game as Falcons -1, so I show value on the Panthers. This is a revenge game for Carolina, and they get to play at home on a short week. Usually, we’d think that gives the home team an advantage, but road teams are 5-4 this year on Thursday night. In any case, I’m not sure if I can bet this game if Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback for the Panthers. PJ Walker had a big game against Atlanta two weeks ago, opening up their rushing attack. One other thing to consider is motivation. The Falcons are tied with Tampa Bay at 4-5 heading into this contest, while the Panthers might enter experimentation mode soon after dropping to 2-7 overall. This is probably a stay-away for me.
Seahawks at Buccaneers (-2,5), Total: 44.5
Ruh-roh. Although the Seattle Seahawks keep winning games and proving people wrong, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2.5-point-favorites in Germany on Sunday. While some may roll their eyes at that, I think the line is dead-on. No one has a home-field advantage, and Tampa is fresh off a big win against the Rams. Even more significant, the game ended with a vintage game-winning drive by Tom Brady with less than a minute left in the contest. The Bucs still didn’t look in championship form, but that ending can be a big catalyst for a team with all the talent to go as far as they want. Heading into that final drive, Tampa only had nine points on the board. Their red zone woes continued on Sunday, opting for field goals on four of their six red zone visits. One ended on a failed fourth down and goal.
The Seahawks have been very impressive. Against an Arizona Cardinals team in a great spot, at home with revenge on their mind, the Seahawks still came out the victor. And again, there was nothing flukey about it. Seattle outgained the Cardinals 421 to 262, nearly doubled the Cardinals in first downs (27 to 15), and they controlled time of possession (34:31). The Seahawks should be considered very legitimate at this point, and it’ll be hard to bet against them in good spots.
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I just don’t know if this is that spot. The Bucs needed a reason to believe that their season was still worth fighting for, and Tom Brady provided that in Sunday’s game-winning drive. Instantly in first place again in the NFC South, the Bucs are not a shoo-in to win their division at 4-5. That’s especially true considering how winnable Atlanta’s schedule is for the rest of the season. Seattle has won four straight, and while I’m not dying to bet against them, this checks out as a good spot for them to stumble. I’ll be considering Tampa as a Circa play this weekend.
Texans at Giants (-6.5), Total: 40
One of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season, the 6-2 New York Giants are fresh off a bye entering Week 10. They’ll welcome the Houston Texans as seven-point favorites at home, and this is the first game where I show significant line disparity. This is where I handicapped it:
Giants -4.5, Total: 43.5
Houston floundered on Thursday Night Football in a competitive game for three quarters. Even though the Eagles looked less interested in being there, they still pulled away and earned a 12-point victory. The Texans looked deflated after that loss.
But I still think this line is wrong. The Giants have only been favorites in five games in the last three seasons. They’re 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in those five games. This is a big line to cover for a Giants team that should be able to find some success against Houston on the ground, but the same can be said about the Texans. Both defenses are among the worst against the run this season, allowing 5.5 yards per carry to their opponents. The Texans are more competitive in their pass defense, and I think they can hang in this game. The Giants' average margin of victory in six wins is only 4.5 points per game, and they only beat Jacksonville and Chicago by more than 5 points. I’ll likely bet on Houston and the over.
Lions at Bears (-3), Total: 48.5
The sportsbooks are finally realizing that the Chicago Bears qualify as an over-team. Chicago is making strides in their offenses, and it’s showing on the scoreboard. Since their bye in Week 6, the Bears are averaging 31 points per game, and they’re doing it against formidable defenses. They dropped 33 on the Patriots, 29 on the Cowboys, and 32 on the Dolphins.
Even in a loss Sunday, it’s hard not to feel more optimistic about Justin Fields and the Bears’ future. Fields ran 15 times for 178 yards on Sunday. He was responsible for all four of the Bears’ touchdowns, nearly leading them to a comeback win. Credit the Dolphins for a nice stop late in the fourth quarter to secure a victory.
The Detroit Lions beat the Packers in a phony win at home. Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions deep in Lions’ territory in what proved to be the difference in a sloppy 15-9 win for Detroit. Neither team did much to get impressed by, and the Lions were significantly outgained (389 to 254 in total yards). Even though they got a win, I’m looking to bet against Detroit moving forward.
This total is close to where I have it– I set it at 49.5– and I would strongly lean Chicago at home.
Vikings at Bills (-7), Total: 46
I don’t have much to say about this game. The line sits exactly where I have it, and this will be a tough game to handicap this week for several reasons.
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Firstly, it’s worth mentioning that although the Minnesota Vikings keep winning games when it looks like they could just as easily lose, Kirk Cousins made some sensational passes against the Commanders Sunday. That was a tough spot in his old stomping grounds. Kirk took some hits and did enough to earn his team a victory, making timely passes in crucial moments at the end of the game. It’s also great to see how happy and united Kirk seems with his teammates. The video of him celebrating Sunday’s win is going viral, and it’s clear Kirk is in a much better place with his new coach.
While all that is true, this might be a uniquely difficult spot for the Vikings in Week 10. The Buffalo Bills were double-digit-favorites in Week 9 and lost outright to the burgeoning Jets. Heading back home to Orchard Park sets up a big redemption spot for the Bills, but we also don’t know how healthy Josh Allen is. He was grabbing his arm a few times during Sunday’s loss. For now, this is probably a stay-away for me.
Broncos at Titans (-3), Total: 39
Week after week, the Tennessee Titans prove that it’s not about the box score and how many yards they gain. It’s about how physical and competitive they are. And it keeps working. Although Tennessee ultimately lost in a classic Patrick Mahomes takeover game in the final minutes of Sunday Night Football, I couldn’t help but come out of it feeling really impressed by Mike Vrabel’s team. Tennessee continues to stick with its run game, and it continues to work, but their defense keeps them in games. Playing at Arrowhead after the Chiefs were coming off a bye is an extremely difficult spot. Despite earning 499 yards Sunday night, the Titans held one of the NFL’s premier offenses to only 20 points.
And here comes one of the clunkier offenses in the NFL. Off a bye, the Denver Broncos will attempt to ride some momentum after some clutch drives from Russell Wilson in the final moments of their Week 8 game in London.
This line is exactly where I have it at Titans -3, but the total is still too high. The Broncos rank as one of the most complete defenses in the NFL, and the Titans’ well-coached, chippy defense should greatly limit a Broncos’ offense that’s among the least productive in the NFL. I set this total at 36.5, and I’d only expect it to drop from the current number. I’m betting on it now.
Jaguars at Chiefs (-9.5), Total: 51.5
These lines aren’t out in every book, but it makes sense where it opened. The Kansas City Chiefs, at Arrowhead for two straight weeks, will look to correct some of their inefficiencies after the Titans put up quite the fight in Week 9. Kansas City still rallied 499 total yards on the Titans but was mistaken in their opponents’ territory and missed field goals that created a closer game than expected.
The Jacksonville Jaguars responded with admirable resolve in a victory against the Raiders Sunday. After falling to a 13-point deficit early, Jacksonville shut out Las Vegas in the second half, outscoring them 17-0 in the final two quarters. Perhaps even more impressive– the Jags’ defense held the Raiders to only 65 total yards in the second half. Trevor Lawrence had a more efficient passing game, and Travis Etienne continues to pile up yards and impress as their number-one running back. After five straight losses, it was the win Doug Pederson, and the Jaguars needed.
All that said, heading to Arrowhead against a potent Chiefs attack isn’t as comfortable a spot. I have the Chiefs as 8.5-point favorites here, so I show some value on the Jaguars, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kansas City blew out an inferior, inexperienced Jaguars squad. I probably won’t wager on this game.
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Browns at Dolphins (-4), Total: 49
This is a really interesting game from a matchup perspective. The Miami Dolphins earned another against the Chicago Bears Sunday. Their offense played a very clean game, totaling 379 yards in a tough road spot and not turning the ball over once. Tua Tagovailoa had another efficient game, too, completing over two-thirds of his 30 throws for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Their defense wasn’t as impressive, allowing Justin Fields and the Bears’ rushing attack to run for 252 yards. That’s not the best sign heading into a Week 10 game against arguably the best running back in football.
The Cleveland Browns had Week 9 off and could still be riding some momentum after that impressive beat-down of the Bengals on Thursday Night Football nearly two weeks ago. The Browns are still dealing with some injuries on defense, but right guard Wyatt Teller and cornerback Denzel Ward are reportedly back in practice today.
According to my power ratings, the Dolphins should be -4.5 favorites at home, which is right in line with where the books currently have this line. The Browns will want to control the clock and play conservatively on offense to slow down Miami’s potent passing attack, while the Dolphins will try to take an early lead to make Cleveland uncomfortable. From a side or totals perspective, everything about this line looks sharp. We’ll wait until later in the week to see if we can find more edges.
Saints at Steelers (+2.5), Total: 41
We’ll be quick with this analysis since we haven’t seen the New Orleans Saints play on Monday Night Football yet, and the Pittsburgh Steelers will be coming off a bye.
At this juncture, I show some value on Pittsburgh at home. With an extra week to prepare, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS the last four seasons. The Steelers are at home, where obviously they’d prefer to play in front of an always-raucous group of fans, and the Saints will be coming off a short week. If this line moves up to 3 or 3.5, I’ll probably pull the trigger on Pittsburgh.
Colts at Raiders (-6), Total: 42.5
This line doesn’t seem right, but I get why the sportsbooks need to set it at this number. The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense is headed back home with a great chance to get right against an Indianapolis Colts’ offense led by a rookie quarterback, and they just fired their head coach. Advantage Raiders, right? I’m not so sure.
Firstly, usually, when a coach gets fired, it rallies the players. I’m not sure how players felt about Frank Reich, but the front office clearly thought he was the issue. It’s very debatable if that has any real merit to it, but there’s no way we can know that from our seat. Here’s what we do know:
- Even at 3-5-1, the Colts are not out of the playoff picture
- The fact that Tennessee beat Indianapolis twice means that their chances of winning the AFC South are very short
- The Colts only gained 121 total yards at Gillette Stadium Sunday, but the Raiders defense is not the Patriots’ defense. Sam Ehlinger and a formidable run game could see more opportunities to shine in Week 10
- And finally, who are the Raiders to be touchdown favorites against anyone?
That being said, the Raiders have looked better at home. That’s where they earned their wins this season, and when they did win at home, they won by the margin. They also played against two teams that are similar to the Colts in terms of offensive production– the Texans and Broncos. Because of those reasons, I won’t be making a bet on this game.
Cowboys at Packers (+5), Total: 43
This will be the most challenging game for me to bet on Sunday, but I might just pull the trigger on the Cowboys. The Green Bay Packers have only been underdogs at Lambeau Field 10 times since 2010. That’s astounding, but it makes total sense. With one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and in a stadium that has a legitimate home-field advantage, Green Bay has always been a tough out at home. The Packers are 5-5 ATS the last 12 seasons in such spots.
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Aaron Rodgers threw not one, not two, but three egregiously bad throws deep in the Lions’ territory on Sunday. That, more injuries to their defense, and Detroit capitalizing on their mistakes led to another loss for Green Bay.
In Week 10, Mike McCarthy will visit his former team with a Dallas Cowboys team that’s fresh off a bye. We’ve seen the unbelievable repeatedly happen this season, and a Cowboys’ blowout victory in Green Bay would qualify if/when that occurs. I have the Cowboys, shockingly, as -6.5 in this contest, so I lean toward Dallas. I’ve seen enough from this overblown, underperforming Packers team. I think their season is effectively over.
Cardinals at Rams (-3), Total: 43
The perennially flawed Arizona Cardinals take their losing ways to Los Angeles to face the Super Bowl champions, and both squads desperately need a win. The Rams don’t have a dependable offense, and the Cardinals are not well-coached. Which team do you want to bet on in this situation? Exactly– I’ll probably pass.
Arizona has committed 22 penalties for 144 yards over the last two Sundays. They’ve also turned it over four times and gone 10-25 on third-down conversions. When it matters, the Cardinals just aren’t a team I can depend on.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams, who looked like they were going to eke out a win Sunday in Tampa, continue to experience one of the biggest Super Bowl hangovers we’ve ever seen. Almost all of that is because of their flaws on offense. Los Angeles is one of the NFL’s worst teams in points per game, yards per game, yards per rush and yards per pass, turnover margin, and sack rate on both sides of the ball. Sean McVay opened up to the media and said something has to change after their Week 9 loss. We’ll see if the Rams look any different, but I doubt I’ll have a play on this game. The line is ugly and right.
Chargers at 49ers (-7), Total: 46.5
The San Francisco 49ers continue to deal with a slew of injuries to key players like Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, Arik Armstead, and others, but they’re still seven-point favorites at home following a bye week. I handicapped this at Chargers -6, but I don’t necessarily disagree with where it’s landed. In fact, as we’ve learned a few times this season, it’s probably something I need to adjust on my end.
The Los Angeles Chargers found a way to survive in Atlanta, edging out the Falcons after a near game-changing fumble late in the fourth quarter. Justin Herbert created some magic at the end of that game with sharp throws in the fourth quarter that led to 6 straight points.
This is a really tough game to wager on. The 49ers can’t claim to be a more talented team, but they’re certainly better coached. And they’re at home following a bye. Does that mean they deserve to be touchdown favorites? Eh. I’ll lean slightly to the Chargers.
Commanders at Eagles (-11), Total: 44
The final game of the Week 10 slate is a big NFC East battle. The Washington Commanders were on a three-game winning streak heading into their matchup against the Vikings in Week 9. Kirk Cousins had some gutsy throws, and the Commanders couldn’t muster a win in the end, but they were competitive and gritty against one of the better teams in the NFC. The Philadelphia Eagles sleepwalked through the first three quarters of Thursday Night Football, but they predictably turned on the jets and beat the Texans by double-digits in the end.
Philadelphia will be coming off extended rest, and the Commanders, beaten up after a physical game against Minnesota, will face a tremendous challenge playing at Lincoln Financial Field. The spot clearly favors Philadelphia, but is there a path for the Commanders to succeed? We’re not so sure.
The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL to complement a top-five offense. Washington is good at getting after the quarterback (12th in sack rate), and they create pressure at a constant rate. Jalen Hurts is the type of quarterback who can handle it, but the Commanders could keep this game close if they establish their run game. We saw it on Thursday Night Football, and we’ve seen it exemplified in a few cases from Philly this season– they’re a below-average rushing defense, allowing 5.2 yards per carry (29th). The Commanders have yet to deliver a breakout game for their running backs, but this could be an ideal spot.
I handicapped this as Eagles -8.5, so I show value on Washington.
WATCH MORE: Week 9 Fantasy Takeaways
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