Betting
10/7/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 5: Dolphins at Jets
Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)
Opening Spread: Jets +3.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Jets (20.5), Dolphins (24)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened between Jets +3 and Jets +3.5.
- This line remains at Jets +3.5 as of Thursday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jets +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets +3.5.
- This total opened between 44 and 44.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 45.5 points as of Thursday evening.
Notable Injuries
Jets: IR: OT Mekhi Becton, OT Duane Brown, OT George Fant; Doubtful: RT Max Mitchell, LB Quincy Williams. Questionable: RB Breece Hall
Dolphins: IR: OT Austin Jackson; Out: QB Tua Tagovailoa, CB Bryon Jones; Questionable: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, LT Terron Armstead, CB Xavien Howard
The Jets Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
The Jets are in very real danger of being down to their fifth and sixth offensive tackles if Max Mitchell misses this contest. Miami has a mediocre defensive front, but it is willing to bring pressure, and that could be a real problem for the Jets in this situation.
Betting Notes
- The Jets are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 2-2 on overs this season.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 19 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- New York is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- As unbelievable as it sounds, Joe Flacco’s volume is the reason New York is currently fourth in the league in passing yards. Zach Wilson returned to action last week in Pittsburgh.
- Michael Carter and Breece Hall have been in a relative split in the Jets' backfield, though Hall’s role is gradually increasing.
- Per TruMedia, Garrett Wilson is tenth in the league in targets (39) and second in the league in end zone targets (7). Wilson has played 66 snaps on the perimeter and 105 in the slot.
- Corey Davis has played 173 snaps on the perimeter and 45 in the slot.
- Elijah Moore has played 205 snaps on the perimeter and 54 in the slot.
- Tyler Conklin is seventh among tight ends in targets (29). Conklin has seen 166 snaps as an in-line tight end, 67 in the slot, and 18 on the perimeter.
- All four of the Jets' primary pass-catchers have seen between 45 and 67 snaps in the slot. Miami has gotten beaten up in the slot through the first four games.
Dolphins Defense
- The Dolphins have allowed 22.8 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing and the sixth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Miami has surrendered the sixth-most yards receiving on the 15th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have given up the sixth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers this season.
- Miami has allowed the fifth-most yards receiving on the fourth-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points to tight ends in the slot.
The Dolphins Offense vs. Jets Defense
I’ve moved the Jets' front four deeper into the middle of the pack after having them just outside the top ten to start the season. I have Miami’s offensive line ranked in the same general area. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, with the Jets having a minor edge in the interior.
Betting Notes
- The Dolphins are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 1-3 on overs this season.
Dolphins Offense
- The Dolphins are scoring 24.5 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- Teddy Bridgewater will be taking over at quarterback for Miami this week.
- Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert are swapping the usage lead every other week through the first four games. Mike McDaniel’s running back deployments when he was offensive coordinator in San Francisco were often unpredictable in nature.
- Per TruMedia, Tyreek Hill leads the league in yards receiving (477), he’s fourth in targets (43), and he’s tied for second in receptions (31). Hill has a 31.4% target share and a 38.2% air yards share. Hill has seen 112 snaps out wide and 59 in the slot.
- Jaylen Waddle is seventh in the league in yards receiving (381) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (3). Waddle has a 25.5% target share and a 32.7% air yards share. Waddle has seen 146 snaps out wide, with just 28 in the slot.
- Durham Smythe and Mike Gesicki have both been relative non-factors in the Dolphins' passing attack.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing and the 20th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- New York has allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving on the fifth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving on the eighth-most receptions to tight ends this year.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Jets vs. Dolphins
A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on the best wide receiver duo in football not being significantly limited by injuries or Teddy Bridgewater. Mike McDaniel’s awareness and creativity as a play-caller has me far less worried about those conditions than I would be with many other coaches. Miami is facing a Jets' offensive line that may be down to its fifth and sixth options at offensive tackle. If you’re betting on Miami, you’re betting on the Dolphins exploiting that circumstance. I have two mild concerns on a Dolphins bet. The first is the Jets' front four playing its best game of the season and giving Teddy Bridgewater more trouble than we anticipate. The second is that the Jets have a really good collection of young skill position players that are, together, a difficult matchup for anyone. Cornerback Byron Jones continuing to miss time is why I have some concern on that front.
A bet on the Jets is a bet on Zach Wilson being able to play effective offense despite New York being down to its fifth and sixth options at offensive tackle. If you’re betting on New York in this spot, that’s the biggest risk you’re taking. The second is that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are nightmare matchups for anyone. Teddy Bridgewater taking over at quarterback is a positive for the Jets, but he is a capable backup. New York’s defensive line has the potential to play up in this contest. Since Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both on the injury report, the prospect of at least one of them being out or limited for this contest would be a considerable boon for the Jets' side.
Awards Market Ramifications: Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year contender. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are Offensive Player of the Year contenders. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are Offensive Rookie of the Year contenders.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Miami in winner pools, and I expect to be higher than consensus on them in confidence pools. As an example, I will have Miami ranked higher than whoever I end up going with in Rams vs. Cowboys.
Spread Pool: I’m considering the Dolphins -3.5 for two core reasons. The first is that Mike McDaniel can get Jimmy Garoppolo-level production out of Teddy Bridgewater against this Jets' secondary. The second is that New York looks like it'll be down to its fifth and sixth offensive tackles in this contest. If Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both in with no significant limitations, I expect to play Miami in at least one of my tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Is Teddy Bridgewater a Better Fit as Miami's QB?
