Betting

9/30/22

6 min read

Matchups Week 4: Jets vs Steelers

By Ryan Reynolds

Steelers Jets
Aug 12, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

Opening Spread: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Game Total: 41.5

Opening Team Totals: Steelers (22.5), Jets (19)

Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Steelers -3.5.
  • This line has settled at Steelers -3.5 as of Thursday night.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers -3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers -3.
  • This total opened at 41.5 points.
  • This total remains at 41.5 points as of Thursday night.

Notable Injuries

Steelers: IR: T.J. Watt. Questionable: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, S Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Jets: IR: OT George Fant, OT Duane Brown, OT Mekhi Becton. Doubtful: LB Quincy Williams, CB Brandin Echols.

The Steelers Offense vs. Jets Defense

The Steelers' bottom-tier offensive line faces the Jets' fringe top-10 caliber front giving the Jets a trench advantage in this phase.

Pittsburgh has a strong, well-rounded skill group that has collectively underachieved due to a volatile offensive line and quarterback play. At their best, Steelers pass catchers have a collective advantage against the Jets secondary.

Notes and Observations

  • The Steelers are 1-1-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Steelers are 1-2 on overs this season.
  • Per The Edge, Mitch Trubisky is 27th in the league in yards passing and 33rd in yards per attempt.
  • Among running backs, Najee Harris is 29th in yards rushing and 29th in yards receiving.
  • The Jets have allowed the 19th most yards rushing and the 15th most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is sixth in the league in target share (32.7%) and ninth in air yards share (41.2%).
  • The Jets have allowed the 17th most yards receiving on the eighth fewest receptions to wide receivers through the first three games.
  • Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is second on the team in target share (20.8%), which is good for fifth in the league among tight ends.
  • The Jets have allowed the 14th most yards receiving on the 15th most receptions to tight ends this season. 

The Jets Offense vs. Steelers Defense

The Jets are now without their top three offensive tackles due to injuries. The Steelers are without their best pass rusher in Watt, but even without him they still have a fringe top-10 front. Pittsburgh has an edge in this area.

Notes and Observations

  • The Jets are 1-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Jets are 1-2 on overs this season.
  • Per The Edge, Joe Flacco is fifth in the league in passing yards but 31st in yards per attempt.
  • Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson is making his regular-season debut.
  •  Wilson's mobility might change the Jets' offense in several ways this week.
  •  Jets running backs Michael Carter and rookie Breece Hall are in a relative timeshare. Through the first three games, Hall is sixth among running backs in yards receiving, while Carter is 15th.
  • Carter is a solid, well-rounded player, but Hall is already showing he’s the higher ceiling player.
  • The Steelers have allowed the fourth most yards rushing and the tenth most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Keep in mind that the Steelers have already faced two of the most running back-centric offenses in the league in the Patriots and Browns.
  • Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson leads the team with a 22.1% target share and a 27.9% air yards share.
  • Elijah Moore is second on the team in both categories, with a 14.1% target share and a 26.7% air yards share.
  • The Steelers have allowed the ninth most yards receiving on the eighth most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • Through the first three games, Jets tight end Tyler Conklin has the same amount of targets (24) as one of the league's top tight ends, Travis Kelce. However, Conklin’s 16.1% target share is 13th among tight ends (Kelce is fourth in target share among tight ends).
  •  The Steelers have allowed the 16th most yards receiving on the 10th most receptions to tight ends this season.

This is What You’re Betting On in Steelers vs. Jets

A bet on the Steelers is a bet on a talented but struggling offense with below-average quarterback play and a bottom-tier offensive line. Betting on the Steelers means you expect them to at least meet expectations against a beatable Jets defense. Pittsburgh’s defense was great on opening day, but they are not the same unit without Watt. Considering Watt is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, that’s not exactly a surprise.

However, the Jets are down to their fourth and fifth options at offensive tackle. That would be a problem for any offense, not to mention an inconsistent one like New York’s. Your biggest concern with a Steelers bet is that the Jets' solid front four gives Trubisky and the Steelers' bottom-tier offensive line issues. Pittsburgh played on Thursday Night Football last week, giving them a long week to prepare for New York.

A bet on the Jets is a bet on Zach Wilson making his regular season debut and elevating a talented Jets offense. It’s also a bet on the Jets' front four exploiting the Steelers' bottom-tier offensive line, which could limit Pittsburgh’s pass catchers. There is also reason to be concerned with New York's offensive line. They are missing their top three tackles for this contest. While that doesn’t ensure disaster for New York’s offense, one of my football mantras is you can play effective offense with one below-average offensive tackle, but not two. 

Awards Market Ramifications: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Steelers in winner pools because of the Jets' injuries at offensive tackle. If that wasn’t the case, the Jets would be an interesting differentiator option given the Steelers' various struggles. I’ll rank Pittsburgh above whichever side I take in the Raiders vs. Broncos and Cowboys vs. Commanders in confidence pools.

Spread Pool: I’m probably going to stay away from this one ATS, even though betting against teams in the Jets offensive tackle conundrum is something I generally entertain. But right now, I don’t trust the Steelers on either side of the ball.

Survivor: Pittsburgh would be a very aggressive choice in survivor pools this week.

WATCH MORE: Laveranues Coles on Jets - Steelers Matchup: 'We Were Built For This'

Tags: New York Jets

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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