2023 Wide Receiver Season-Long Betting Lines to Target

We want to find every edge we can in fantasy football and betting. That’s why we constantly look for ways to blend them together. In season-long prop markets, you’ll find significant discrepancies between the lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and Underdog Fantasy’s best ball average draft position (ADP).

Underdog’s flagship tournament, Best Ball Mania, is the world’s most popular fantasy football tournament with more than 230,000 entries through mid-July of 2023. The "wisdom of the crowd" can be applied here, as ADP has been set by thousands of the most hardcore fantasy players out there.

Each drafted team provides insights into how players' 2023 production is being valued by many of the sharpest minds out there. We can use that to make more informed season-long bets, explored throughout this article.

Davante Adams UNDER 1300.5 Yards Receiving

Davante Adams is being drafted early because of his elite ability to create separation. His career Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is 10.4, in line with his aDOT over the last five seasons.
- Emmanuel Sanders in 2019 is Jimmy Garappolo’s only WR with more than 30 receptions and an aDOT of 9.5 or more. Sanders finished with 502 yards that season.
- Adams’ averaged 4.8 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception during the past five seasons (68th percentile). While talented, he’s not elite after the catch and will rely on Garappolo to do something he’s never done historically.
Last year, with Derek Carr, Adams’ yards per reception (YPR) was 15.2 yards, higher than his last five-year average of 12.8 YPR.
- If Garappolo can sustain a 15.2 yards per attempt (YPA) passing to Adams, Adams would need 86 receptions to top 1,300 yards.
- Garappolo never had a receiver with 86 or more receptions in a season.
Adams would need a target share of around 28.5 percent to see the 86 receptions he needs to top this number.
- No receiver has ever had a target share of higher than 23.5 percent from Garappolo.
- George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey were within 18-22 percent for the 49ers' target share last season. Adams likely won’t have a target share high enough to hit this number.

Christian Watson OVER 750.5 Yards Receiving

Christian Watson has the third largest negative difference between the line-of-best fit, his Underdog ADP and DraftKings yards receiving line.
- Based on where Watson is being drafted, we would expect him to total about 860 yards, 110 more than 750.5.
- That number is the third largest among wide receivers behind Samuel (rushing upside) and Kadarius Toney (plays on the Kansas City Chiefs).
Watson paced for 913 yards as a starter last season.
- He won't have Aaron Rodgers, but Watson averaged more than 50 yards per game last season including three receptions totaling 103 yards from Jordan Love.
  - Seventy-five of the 103 yards came from YAC, so Love doesn’t need to be an elite downfield passer for Watson to produce.
  - Watson saw a smaller aDOT (12.25) with Love than he did with Rodgers (15.40), but both of these numbers are in the top third among wide receivers with 100 routes run last season.
Watson needs just 44 yards per game to top this number.
- Since 2008, there have been 111 wide receivers with 50 yards receiving per game and then played on the same team with a new starting quarterback the following season.
  - Eighty-four of the 111 (75 percent) saw more than 44 yards per game.

Mike Evans UNDER 925.5 Yards Receiving

Mike Evans has the largest positive difference between the line-of-best fit, his Underdog ADP and DraftKings yards receiving line.
- Based on where Evans is being drafted, we would expect him to total about 767 yards, 158 fewer than 925.5.
Evans is being drafted as the WR36 on Underdog.
- Since 2008, there have been 294 wide receivers to pace for a 950+ yard season with a minimum of eight games played. Seven of them finished as WR36 or worse.

Season	Player	Team	Games Played	Half-PPR Points	Yards Receiving	PPG	PPG Fantasy Finish
2012	Brian Hartline	MIA	16	149.3	1083	9.33	37
2014	Vincent Jackson	TB	16	145.2	1002	9.08	42
2015	Willie Snead	NO	15	148.9	984	9.93	38
2016	Adam Thielen	MIN	16	160.7	967	10.04	36
2016	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	16	158.4	954	9.90	38
2017	Marquise Goodwin	SF	16	140.6	962	8.79	37
2019	Mike Williams	LAC	15	136.8	1001	8.12	45

My one hesitation is Evans has posted 1,000 yards in nine straight seasons. No other wide receiver in NFL history has done this.
- Perhaps this is what’s inflating this 950.5-yard line, but Baker Mayfield is without a doubt the least efficient quarterback of Evans' career, putting this record in serious jeopardy.
- Not to mention, Evans lines up out wide on 70 percent of his routes.
  - Just 74 of Mayfield’s 334 (22 percent) attempts last season went to a receiver lined up out wide.

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