Analysis
11/1/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Kenny Pickett Passing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks article from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 9 Player Props
Kenny Pickett OVER 212.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Kenny Pickett has gone over this number in five of seven games this year. The Tennessee Titans have given up at least 223 passing yards in six of seven games and are averaging 255 passing yards allowed per game at 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They've been much stingier in the run game, allowing just 3.99 yards per carry to running backs this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a struggling run game, face a pass funnel defense, and have Diontae Johnson back for his third straight game, so I'm betting on Pickett tomorrow night. My biggest concern is he takes a sack and last week's rib injury knocks him out of action again. Still, if he plays the full game, I think he's hitting this mark 70 percent or more of the time against Tennessee. Other sportsbooks either have his pass yards number higher already, or there's -115 or higher juice on the 212.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky
Jordan Love Longest Rush OVER 8.5
Best Odds: -115 on Bet365
Jordan Love has gone over this line in every single game this season, 8-0. Yes, Love even cashed this bet against the Detroit Lions when he totaled two rushes for -2 yards (as pointed out by tackleboxprops). With a total of 10 rushes this long, Love ranks fourth in total number of 9-plus yard rushes behind only:
With 25 total rushes, 40 percent of them have gone for nine or more yards. No quarterback (with at least 5 rushes) is rushing for 9-plus yards at a higher rate than Love.
On the other side of the ball, quarterbacks are 4-4 on this number against the Los Angeles Rams.
Despite that, quarterbacks who didn’t go over are Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Brock Purdy and Pickett, who all rank below average in quarterback rush attempts per game.
Bet by: Wolby
Jalen Hurts OVER 21.5 Completions
Best Odds: -125 on Bet365
Jalen Hurts has topped this number in six straight, averaging 24 completions per game this season. Much like the Philadelphia Eagles' record, Hurts is 7-1 on this prop in 2023.
The concern is quarterbacks against Dallas are 1-6 on this line, though Dallas hasn't exactly faced elite passers. The QBs who missed this line are:
- Zach Wilson
- Mac Jones
- Daniel Jones
- Josh Dobbs
- Matthew Stafford (who was pulled in a 20-42 loss blowout)
- Purdy (who was pulled in a 42-10 win blowout)
Because of all this, quarterbacks are averaging the third fewest attempts vs. the Dallas Cowboys; four of these six teams that went under were all bottom six passing offenses by EPA to begin with.
Teams playing the Cowboys aren't finding success on the ground, as Dallas ranks second best in EPA per game allowed on rushing plays.
In a meaningful divisional game, expect this game to be somewhat of a passing shootout.
Bet by: Wolby
James Cook Longest Rush OVER 12.5
Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings
James Cook has gone over this line in three straight while being 6-2 this season. With nine rushes of 13-plus, Cook ranks third in total number of rushes this long behind only Bijan Robinson and Zack Moss. He’s rushing for 13 or more yards on 8.8 percent of his runs, which ranks fifth among RBs with at least 50 carries.
The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-2 allowing this vs. opposing running backs, allowing the sixth most yards per carry to opposing RBs. They’re allowing 1.9 rushes of 13-plus to RBs per game, which ranks fourth most.
I think this line is a bit scary because we don’t know how Leonard Fournette fits into the picture, but remember earlier when I said Cook has hit this number in six of eight? He was 7-1 on this number last season in games with five or more carries, making him 12-4 in the NFL when he has five or more carries.
Bet by: Wolby
Bijan Robinson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
This line is currently 21.5 on most sports books, so you’re getting a slight value. Robinson had five targets last week and eight in Week 6, with the headache game stuck in between. Robinson is 5-2 against this number in non-headache games. No Drake London means narrowed targets for Atlanta Falcons’ pass catchers.
Bet by: Larky
Dak Prescott Over 248.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This line is already up to 250 on FanDuel. Dak Prescott has beaten this line in five of his last six games. The Eagles are a pass funnel defense. We’re also betting on an ascending passing attack.
Bet by: Larky
Jayden Reed Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jayden Reed has gone over this number in five of seven games. He’s running a high number of routes. There’s still some confusion on Aaron Jones’ injury. If Jones is out or limited, that increases opportunities for everyone else. This is a bet on a Love bounce back in a critical game.
Bet by: Larky
Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 DraftKings
Chris Olave is only 4-4 on this line on the season, but two of those losses came in the games directly after Derek Carr’s throwing shoulder injury. Carr has thrown for 300 passing yards in each of his last three games.
Olave has fallen below this number in two of those three games, but he has 34 total targets over that span. Olave’s catch rate has been low over this span as well, making this a regression play. The New Orleans Saints are significant favorites, but the Chicago Bears secondary looks like it could be back to full strength. If they are, that’s the primary concern with this bet.
Bet by: Reynolds
Nico Collins Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 DraftKings
Nico Collins is 4-3 against this number this season. The Houston Texans haven’t been able to run the ball this year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been strong against the run. Tampa is, however, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Houston has been a pass reliant offense this season, against a defense you have to throw on to beat. Collins’ usage through the first four games was great, but less so over the last three. Ryan expects a usage spike in this matchup, but that is his biggest concern here.
Bet by: Reynolds
Davante Adams Over 6.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +114 DraftKings
This is a high reception number to take an over, but Davante Adams has beaten it three times and he’s missed by half a reception twice. The firing of Josh McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi on a short week brings volatility to the offense. Factor in that rookie Aidan O’Connell is taking over at quarterback and the Las Vegas Raiders likely deploy a simplified game plan that runs through Adams and Josh Jacobs.
In the lone game that O’Connell started this year, Adams caught eight of 13 targets for 75 receiving yards. On a baseline level backup quarterbacks tend to have tunnel vision with their top option. New York Giants’ defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will also bring heat against the Raiders’ rookie quarterback. Ryan expects a number of short, manufactured receptions for Adams in this environment. That’s why he leans over on Adams’ receptions over yards, even though both are doable.
Bet by: Reynolds
Drue Tranquill OVER 6.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -135 on Bet365 and Caesars
Drue Tranquill has gone over this total in all four games that Nick Bolton has missed so far this season and Bolton is now on injured reserve. In those four games, Tranquill has totaled 36 tackles, an average of nine per game. None of those four games were against very good matchups for linebackers, and two of the four games were against bottom six matchups (CHI and NYJ).
As a starter for the Los Angeles Chargers last season, Tranquill went over this number in 12 out of 17 games. While the Miami Dolphins haven't been a very good matchup for linebacker tackles so far this season, they have still allowed at least one linebacker to go over this total in seven out of eight games. Leaguewide so far in 2023, linebackers who have played greater than 85 percent of the snaps in a game have gone over 6.5 tackles at a rate of 76 percent. My model has him going over this total around 69 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
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