Analysis
11/2/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
Chargers (3-4) at Jets (4-3)
Spread: Jets +3.5
Total: 40.5
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from Jets +3 to Jets +3.5. The game total has moved down from 41.5 points to 40.5 points.
Jets Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The New York Jets would be a Super Bowl contender with QB Aaron Rodgers at the controls. With Zach Wilson, they have an unreliable, bordering on non-functioning passing attack. The Los Angeles Chargers’ pass rush will have an advantage in this contest.
The Chargers allow the most receiving yards to wide receivers and the second-most to tight ends. That’s good news for Garrett Wilson, who leads the Jets’ receivers by a considerable margin in every major category.
Wilson tops the team with 469 receiving yards. Allen Lazard is second with 255, and Tyler Conklin is third with 227. Lazard and Conklin are secondary parts of this passing attack, but they are the only other Jets receivers and tight ends with more than five receptions.
Breece Hall has at least 12 carries in four of his past five games. He’s only run for more than 100 yards twice, where he had at least a 70-yard carry in each of those games. Right now, Hall’s production is reliant on big plays.
In his past two games, Hall has 11 receptions on 14 targets for 130 yards and a score. The Chargers have been surprisingly strong against the run but are giving up the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
Chargers Offense vs. Jets Defense
Justin Herbert is one of the few premium quarterbacks in the league. The Jets have one of the league’s best pass defenses, allowing the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. Keenan Allen got off to a monster start this season. His production has dropped since Week 4, which was Mike Williams’ first inactive game.
Josh Palmer has at least seven targets in three of the four games Williams has missed. Last week, Quentin Johnston had more than 20 receiving yards for the first time this season. With Gerald Everett out last week, Donald Parham Jr. caught four of five targets for 43 yards and a score.
Austin Ekeler continues to struggle on the ground, but he had seven receptions on eight targets for 94 receiving yards and a score last week. The Jets have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Chargers at Jets
If you’re betting on the Jets, you are betting on their defense — period. This group drove New York’s wins against the Bills and Eagles while taking the Chiefs to the brink. Offensively, Garrett Wilson cannot be counted on.
You must hope Garrett Wilson or Hall make enough plays to create scoring drives. A bet on the Jets is on their premium defense to limit another premium quarterback.
A bet on the Chargers is built on four core concepts. The first is you get a premium quarterback against one of the league’s best defenses. The second is Ekeler can exploit the only areas New York’s defense has struggled with. Third, the Chargers’ pass rush has an advantage. Last, and perhaps most important, you are betting directly against Zach Wilson.
Score Prediction: Chargers 17, Jets 13
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 21-18
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-12
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
